Warisan's Karim maintains his lead as Kimanis enters final campaign day

KIMANIS POLLS | Warisan's Karim Bujang appears to have maintained his lead over BN's Mohamad Alamin as the race in Kimanis by-election entered the final day of campaigning today.

This is despite BN intensifying its main issue of the Sabah Temporary Pass (PSS) by roping in local opposition parties and holding talks and a mass gathering, dubbed Himpunan Muafakat Rakyat Sabah, which attracted crowds of more than 1,000 people just prior to the poll.

The heavyweight leaders who canvassed support for BN were former Sabah chief minister Joseph Pairin Kitingan, his nephew and PBS president Maximus Johnity Ongkili, his brother and Sabah opposition leader Jeffrey Kitingan and former Kimanis MP Anifah Aman.

The anti-PSS protest organised by two local NGOs attracted more than 500 participants, even if a majority of them were not Kimanis voters.

Besides this, BN maintained its traditional strategy of holding as many ceramah kelompoks (group talks) ahead of polling day, with no less than eight being held last night.

These were in polling districts in which the coalition hoped to retain or regain support from its rival.

PAS, which is Umno's partner in Muafakat Nasional, sent its deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan on the eve of the fateful day.

A source told Malaysiakini that while BN was able to retain the support of the Muslim bumiputera community, it was not received well by the Kadazandusun Murut (KDM) voters.

KDM voters make up an estimated 45 percent of the total voters in Kimanis, with a majority of them in the non-Muslim bumiputera category.

Muslim bumiputeras make up 63.16 percent while the non-Muslim bumiputera comprise 30.67 percent of the voters in the semi-rural constituency of 29,664 voters.

In the 2018 general election, BN's Anifah Aman was only able to secure the support of 38 percent of the non-Muslim bumiputera voters. 

He won because BN garnered the support of 53 percent of the Muslim bumiputera constituents.

Meanwhile, an MCA official said that the local Chinese, who make up only 3.59 percent or 1,064 voters, are also not happy with PSS.

"Only five to 10 percent of Chinese voters supported BN in the 2018 vote. This time, the Chinese votes are expected to swing back to BN and we target 20 percent of Chinese support," he said.

"Chinese generally don't like PSS as they fear that the migrants will be given lands if they gain citizenship and they are classified as Bajau or Sulok tribe under the State Constitution," said the source.

Warisan countered PSS well

Overall, however, Warisan appeared to counter the PSS issue well. Its Youth chief and Deputy Home Minister Mohd Azis Jamman assured the voters that only genuine holders of IMM13, Burung-burung Cards and census certificates would receive the PSS.

Warisan and BN have continuously blamed each other for the inception of PSS.

The mood in the Warisan ranks was good yesterday, with a party member saying the ruling party is still leading according to its intelligence sources.

The source said Warisan, which started the race after the Jan 4 nomination day with an estimated support of 55 percent, has become more comfortable and at ease after entering the second week of campaigning.

The campaign showed that Warisan was more popular among the younger voters and the working class, while the older voters still continued to support BN.

State Agriculture and Food Industry Minister Junz Wong explained various agriculture projects to the voters, a majority of whom are farmers and fishermen.

Close Warisan win predicted

A survey conducted by Ilham Centre that was released yesterday showed that Warisan is more likely to win as Karim is more popular than the BN's candidate and PSS is no longer such an important issue to the voters.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, Universiti Malaya sociopolitical analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi concurred that Warisan is likely to win, but with a majority of less than 1,500 votes.

Awang Azman said this is because the people in Kimanis believe it is Warisan that is able to bring development to the agriculture-based constituency.

"The people want better economic development in Kimanis and want the kind of projects that equally benefit the local community, instead of a multi-million ringgit project which they can't feel the benefits of," he said.

He expects the Muslim bumiputera voters to continue to support the BN, while the KDM community would be the kingmakers and they are eyed by Warisan.

If would be interesting to observe if the young voters who live outside the constituency will continue to vote for Warisan, like they did in 2018 general election. Or, if they are going to be affected by national issues and end up swinging to the BN, as what young voters did in Tanjung Piai poll, Awang Azman said.

It was reported that close to 30 percent of the voters reside outside Kimanis, with 2,000 in Kota Kinabalu, 800 working in Labuan and the rest mainly staying in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

Kota Kinabalu is approximately 55 kilometres away from Kimanis and it takes two-and-a-half hours to come back from Labuan.

Awang also said the voters are not so likely to have an issue with PAS, which campaigned 'quietly' under the Muafakat Nasional cooperation charter.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) head of history programme and senior lecturer Suffian Mansor also believes Warisan will win in the Kimanis race.

"The locals are seeing Warisan as a Sabah-based party. Such sentiment helped Warisan gain the (upper hand)," he said.

"But the domestic issue is still the main issue in Kimanis," he said.

"I don't think Warisan can secure a landslide majority in the Kimanis poll as former MP Anifah is still an influential personality," he said.

The victory is important for Chief Minister Mohd Shafie Apdal as this will show he has the support of all ethnicities, as reflected in the racial demographics of Kimanis, Suffian said.

On top of that, Warisan's victory will show Shafie can penetrate Kimanis, which sits on the west coast of Sabah and was previously controlled by Anifah and his brother, former Chief Minister Musa Aman, he added.

At the federal level, Suffian said Pakatan Harapan need the victory following its defeat in several by-elections.

"It will boost the spirit of Harapan," added Suffian.

Money politics a possible issue

Meanwhile, a political pundit who spoke on condition of anonymity said the Kimanis battle could also be affected by money politics.

"I was told that voters were offered between RM300 and RM1,000 for their votes," said the source.

"Some of them were paid half of the money upfront and will only receive the balance of it after they cast the ballot," said the source.

Awang Azman said money politics is something inevitable as money is needed to foot the transportation costs of voters to the polling centre as well as to get them food and drinks.

This is very important when the voters reside at places very far from their polling centres, he said.

"This can be seen as a token of appreciation from the political parties to their supporters.

"The local community is used to this culture and for them, this is not money politics but a sign of sincerity," Awang Azman added.

The Kimanis by-election was called after the Election Court voided the GE14 Kimanis parliamentary seat election result on grounds that the Election Commission (EC) failed to comply with election procedures.

Anifah had won Kimanis with a razor-thin 156-vote majority in the last general election. - Mkini