On Nov 16 last year, MCA's Wee Jeck Seng had crushed Bersatu's Karmaine Sardini in the Tanjung Piai by-election with a majority of more than 15,000 votes with the Pakatan Harapan candidate losing in all the 128 voting channels except one.
Support for Harapan had eroded among both the Malay and Chinese voters – the former believing its interests were at stake and the latter believing the coalition was bowing to conservative groups. This set off alarm bells, especially in Bersatu.
A month earlier, an independent survey revealed that Harapan's approval rating had slumped to a low of 35 percent, which then premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad dismissed as inaccurate.
Sources told Malaysiakini that what transpired in Tanjung Piai was the last straw for some in Bersatu, including its president Muhyiddin Yassin.
Since coming into power on May 9, 2018, Harapan had thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Umno but failed to weaken it.
On the contrary, Umno appeared to be growing stronger, with its leaders harping on the sentiment that Malay rights are being sidelined under the Harapan government. Its alliance with PAS fortified its position.
For example, much to Mahathir's chagrin, former Umno president Najib Abdul Razak still commanded a massive social media following and drew large turnouts at his events despite being slapped with a deluge of charges over the 1MDB scandal. His wife, Rosmah Mansor, has also been hauled to court over graft accusations.
Fear of retribution
Bersatu, said one source, was the weakest among the four parties in Harapan.
"The outcome of Tanjung Piai made Bersatu realise that if it continues with Harapan, it risked being wiped out in the next general election," the source told Malaysiakini.
Furthermore, the source claimed that Bersatu leaders were concerned there would be retribution should Umno return to power.
"If Umno won the next general election, they could be hauled to court in the same manner Harapan hauled Umno and BN leaders to court.
"They did whatever they could to kill Umno - freeze accounts, daily propaganda on Tabung Haji, Felda, threatened to de-register the party, charged their leaders and asked Umno MPs to cross over.
"Despite all this, a Bersatu Malay candidate was decimated in Tanjung Piai. He lost to a Chinese candidate in a Malay-majority seat in Muhyiddin's home state of Johor.
"If you were in Muhyiddin and the Bersatu leaders' shoes, would you not be concerned?” added the source.
Therefore, the source said last week's coup, which took out both Mahathir and PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, was not just about politics.
"They were scared of prosecution or rather vengeance.
"You freeze our accounts, charge our leaders, steal our people (Umno representatives) and run us down using all the government machinery at your disposal, and you expect us not to exact vengeance on you when we wipe you out in GE15?" he added.
Dr M against plot
The source said Mahathir's decision to resign as prime minister a day after the infamous Sheraton Move had also facilitated the coup and emboldened Muhyiddin, who led Bersatu's exit from Pakatan Harapan
Yesterday, Mahathir revealed he had urged Muhyiddin to wait until the graft trials against the Umno leaders are over before deciding on whether to cooperate with them.
"Muhyiddin said he was willing to accept Umno en bloc. I said I could not agree... because I refuse to work with people who are still facing trial in criminal court.
"Because of that, I appealed (to wait till) the trial is over. If they are innocent, yes, but if they are guilty I cannot work with them," he added.
Mahathir said Muhyiddin had attempted to persuade him to sever ties with DAP, which he believes was responsible for Harapan's defeat in Tanjung Piai, Semenyih and Kimanis by-elections.
"The Malays believe DAP controls the government, that I am so-called under (DAP secretary-general) Lim Guan Eng’s thumb.
"This is not true, but this is the ability of (former prime minister) Najib that they no longer see Najib as being in the wrong, they are ready to kiss Najib's hand," he added.
Cracks in Harapan
Meanwhile, a source close to Najib reaffirmed that the former premier is still determined to proceed with his cases despite the change in government in order to prove his innocence.
"Najib is adamant that his chance to prove his innocence once and for all is not taken away but he wants the legal system and the media to be fair now. In fact, Najib still insists on his cases being streamed live for all to view.
"His preference is that he does not want to be in the government now and wants fresh elections instead to get a proper mandate. However, fresh elections were decided against by the Council of Rulers last week. Therefore, Najib had to abide with that decision.
"Najib would rather focus on clearing his name in court without the previous political interference from Harapan appointees," added the source.
The former premier had issued a similar statement last Friday following news of Tommy Thomas' resignation as the attorney-general.
Earlier today, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also facing multiple court charges, denied that there was a deal struck with Muhyiddin with regard to this in exchange for supporting him as the eighth prime minister.
Another source told Malaysiakini that Muhyiddin was also able to capitalise on the protracted internal problems in Harapan.
"You had Mahathir who remained ambiguous about the transition issue and kept the whole nation guessing if it would materialise. His dismissal of the Harapan manifesto had also irked Malaysians.
"Then you had Anwar and those aligned to him pressuring Mahathir to hand over the reins. Third, there was Azmin Ali attempting to undermine and prevent Anwar from becoming prime minister.
"Then there was the constant criticism against Mahathir and the police from DAP which gave the impression that their attacks received the tacit approval of the leadership," added the source. - Mkini
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