JOHOR POLLS | The southern states of Peninsular Malaysia have long eluded PAS. But in 2008, helped by progressive leaders, a moderate position and its then Pakatan Rakyat allies, they made an unprecedented breakthrough in Johor.
The party gained a foothold in the 2008 general election, winning the state seats of Maharani and Sungai Abong in northern Johor which it continued to retain in 2013.
But all those gains evaporated after PAS' ultra-conservatives purged their progressive rivals, who went on to set up the splinter party Amanah which dislodged PAS from those seats and expanded their influence across Johor in 2018.
After PAS' costly solo foray in the 2018 general election, it has now aligned itself with Perikatan Nasional (PN) and is aiming to restore its grip on the northern seats in the Muar and Bakri area.
Throughout the Johor polls campaign, PAS heavyweights including its president Abdul Hadi Awang, deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man and vice-president Idris Ahmad, have descended on Maharani and Simpang Jeram (formerly Sungai Abong).
They have also roped Bersatu leaders for their campaign, including supreme council member Azmin Ali.
Hadi visited Simpang Jeram last Sunday where he gave a ceramah peppered with religious sermons to supporters.
The ceramah was held behind closed doors amid his poor health and the Covid-19 pandemic concerns but was aired on Facebook.
Hadi, revered for his religious credentials, parroted the oft-repeated narrative that Pakatan Harapan - the successor to Pakatan Rakyat - is dominated by the "extreme" DAP and its allies Amanah and PKR are nothing but stooges.
But the bulk of his criticism, as well as most PN leaders, were reserved for BN.
BN the main target
It was a reflection of PN's belief that the Johor polls are a contest between BN and PN, despite Amanah, under the Pakatan Harapan banner, being the incumbent in Maharani and Simpang Jeram.
"In reality, the contest is between PN and BN, not Harapan... Harapan's support has plummeted," said 64-year-old Abdul Aziz Talib, who is PN's candidate for Maharani.
The PAS leader and retired headmaster often referred to as "Cikgu Aziz" acknowledged that his party has poured a vast amount of resources into Maharani and Simpang Jeram.
The incumbents in Maharani and Simpang Jeram are Amanah's Nor Hayati Bachok and Salahuddin Ayub respectively.
Salahuddin, who is also the Amanah deputy president, acknowledged that he and his party colleagues are facing an uphill battle.
"It's not easy to win. The contest very much depends on people's willingness to return to vote and the turnout rate.
"We need to impress people that this election is important. It's not just a by-election but a state election which will decide the state government for five years," he said.
Harapan has struggled to energise its support base amid disillusionment following the collapse of its coalition government in 2020 and this is further aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic fears.
Both Harapan and PN have expressed concern that a low turnout will benefit BN, which traditionally has a strong and loyal support base.
This reality has forced both coalitions to focus most of their firepower on BN instead of each other.
Elephant in the room
But for PAS, it also had to address the elephant in the room - its failed attempt to bring Umno and Bersatu together to form a BN-PN alliance in last November's Malacca polls, and now the Johor polls.
A Malay-Muslim unity alliance is popular amongst PAS grassroots but Hadi's refusal to ditch Bersatu, an Umno splinter party, had caused the relationship between Umno and PAS to deteriorate rapidly.
Umno is now bent on leading BN to take out PN, which includes Bersatu, PAS and Gerakan in Johor.
Tuan Ibrahim, in a ceramah in Simpang Jeram, blamed the frayed relationship squarely on Umno's uncompromising position.
"When two groups quarrel, we try to make peace but when one group goes overboard, we need to fight," he said.
PAS had in the past laid thinly-veiled blame on Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who has pushed for the recent series of elections to build on BN's momentum and consolidate their position against opponents who prefer an alliance with Bersatu and PAS in the 15th general election due next year.
PAS' attack against Umno is a twin narrative - that the latter has chosen self-interest over Malay Muslim unity and that it had also chosen politicking over the people by triggering a series of elections during the pandemic.
This was on top of the argument that Umno and BN are corrupt - a narrative pushed by both PN and Harapan.
Mohd Alim Jefri, 25, a Maharani voter who runs a family restaurant, acknowledged that the ground has shifted.
"I feel that before the 14th general election, many people believed Harapan would win, but now I see many are supporting BN," he said.
Alim said people have struggled with livelihoods during the Covid-19 pandemic and some look to BN for the economic stability of the past.
Johor's economy has been hit hard following strict border restrictions with Singapore due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, Alim believed that PAS, which was largely ignored in the last general election, would be a stronger footing now that it has new allies in PN.
Unpredictable outcome
The political realignment in the country has also caused confusion and uncertainty among voters.
Mohd Saufi Nasir, a 25-year-old Muar native working as a factory worker, said he wasn't sure how to decide but could go for BN.
"I will be voting for the first time and I'm quite excited but I'm confused on who to vote.
"It could be BN because many of my friends are already supporting BN," he said.
However, some voters are hopeful that Amanah can hold its ground.
"For this area, it does seem like Harapan still has hope," said 45-year-old banana fritter seller Halimah Mohd Janif.
However, she noted that there was widespread concern about the Covid-19 pandemic which could affect turnout.
Amanah won with respectable majorities in the 2018 general election, picking up Maharani with a 5,674-vote majority and Simpang Jeram with a 7,687-vote majority.
However, the new political alignment has thrown conventional political expectations into disarray.
"The outcome is unpredictable," admitted Amanah president Mohamad Sabu.
Simpang Jeram will see a four-cornered fight between Harapan incumbent Salahuddin Ayub, PN's Zarul Salleh, BN's Lokman Md Don and Pejuang Mahaizal Mahmor.
In Maharani, it's a six-cornered fight between Harapan incumbent Nor Hayati Bachok, PN's Abdul Aziz Talib, BN's Noor Farah Shamsudin, Pejuang's Riad Ahmad, Parti Bangsa Malaysia's Hanis Asmui and independent candidate Lim Kim Joo.
Maharani is a state seat under the Muda-held parliamentary constituency while Simpang Jeram falls under the DAP-held Bakri.
Campaigning for the Johor polls kicked off on Feb 26. Johoreans will go to the polls on March 12. - Mkini
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