Behind the 'madness' of Harapan's Johor moves

 

Behind the seeming madness in Johor, there is a method to Pakatan Harapan’s moves.

From the way they are coordinating seats and the use of logos among Harapan collaborators in the Johor elections, they are essentially preparing the strategy for the big tent of the 15th general election (GE15).

Any strategy is useless without relevant knowledge. You get relevant knowledge from good research findings.

Harapan is seeking important insights to allow them to form a data-driven strategy for GE15. With the advent of Undi-18 and the 750,000 new voters plus the perceived fatigue and mood swings among the electorate, there is much knowledge that Harapan does not possess for the strategy.

They need to know how the young and new voters are taking to Muda. By allotting Muda six seats, the allocation by DAP and Amanah is Harapan’s acknowledgement of Muda’s growing brand and also a test of that brand.

Johor is a microcosm of Malaysia with its fair share of urban and rural voters. The number of votes, the demographics and the winning margins will be invaluable indicators as to how people feel about the fast-rising, hope-touting political newbie.

The findings on Muda’s political debut in Johor will be momentous. They will determine Muda’s place in the big tent.

Especially after the Malacca elections, Harapan needs to know how people regard PKR’s brand? Hence, PKR candidates using only the PKR logo in Johor will answer that. This move is targeted data gathering. Simultaneously, the running of DAP’s and Amanah’s candidates under the Harapan logo serves as a foil to that query.

Harapan needs to know that if people had to choose between PRK and Muda, which would they prefer? The fielding of seats in Larkin will provide an isolated-test answer to that question. It is the only seat where PKR and Muda candidates are clashing. It is clearly orchestrated.

In a cute amicable way, Amanah and DAP have agreed that they will back their Pakatan Harapan coalition partner PKR in Larkin, although they are stumping strongly for Muda’s campaign in the six seats they yielded to Muda.

Muda’s Larkin state seat candidate Rashid Abu Bakar speaking to the media

It is a strategic collaboration in the use of big-tent campaign machinery. Be that as it may, the Larkin test is the canary in the coal mine for such overlapping of seats for the GE15 considerations.

Harapan and Muda need to know how young and new voters regard Muda’s brand of multi-racialism faring against racial sentiments. Hence the results of fielding Muda’S Lim Wei Jiet in majority-Malay Tenang may give some insight to that query.

Risk of vote splitting

On the whole, of course, it can be seen that Harapan’s method, with the exception of Larkin, is not to split the opposition votes. Feelings of dissatisfaction expressed by some PKR and Muda members over seat allotments have been capably stage-managed.

Political disagreements are par-for-the-course. It is vital how they are handled. You will notice that there was no name-calling, no insults and no aspersions cast. The result is that feelings and maruah are assuaged with the strategy of testing-the-waters being left intact.

The takeaway is that they are all still friends. They are all collaborating for a common purpose. The effects of conflict can rip apart the big tent.

With regard to BN, Perikatan Nasional, PBM, Pejuang, I am sure they are clever enough to see that the risk of vote-splitting among their target voters is high. I do not see any big-tent strategy there.

Perhaps it is well-hidden or perhaps they work in mysterious ways. Perhaps their big tent will emerge after they lose Johor to Harapan. Perhaps their research is on the effects of splintered votes.

As to Warisan, with their meagre handful of seats, it is obvious that they are dipping their toe in the water as a test case to see the extent of their popularity in ‘Semenanjung’. In Johor, it is not envisaged that their vote splitting will be significant.

Politics has been more art than science. I see Harapan as putting more science into the art. - Mkini