DAP fears losing 5 Parliament seats, drawbacks expected in Pahang, Sarawak

DAP estimates it may lose five of its 42 Parliament seats in the 15th general election (GE15).

This is based on the party's performance and voting trends in the Johor polls.

In a speech today, DAP chairperson Lim Guan Eng said that in Johor, the party expects to keep four of its parliamentary seats, but its hold on Labis was in danger.

"This was the extrapolation based on the recent Johor election result, by counting the votes that DAP got and assuming that voters will still vote for the same party in the parliamentary seats (as they did in the state seats).

"So the only Parliament seat we may lose in Johor is Labis," Lim told Malaysiakini when asked to elaborate on his speech at the Selangor DAP retreat today.

DAP wrested Labis from MCA in 2018, winning with a 3,408 vote majority.

However, the Johor election saw MCA claw back gains and wresting four state seats - Bekok, Yong Peng, Paloh, and Pekan Nanas.

Bekok is one of two state seats in Labis. The other state seat, Tenang, was also recaptured by BN in the recent state election.

Rough estimate

Summing up the results at the state level and applying them to the parliamentary seats appear to be the formula used by DAP to make its five-seat loss prediction.

However, Lim cautioned the prediction is only a rough estimate.

He declined to reveal which were the other four seats in possible danger.

However, a DAP leader who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Malaysiakini that DAP's parliamentary seats in Pahang - Bentong and Raub - are also in danger.

Like Labis, these two constituencies are among a handful of DAP seats that the party did not win with five-figure majorities in 2018.

DAP won Raub by 3,159 votes and Bentong by 2,032 votes.

The other seats with "small" majorities are Mas Gading (3,024) and Sarikei (2,570) in Sarawak, and Tenom (1,133) in Sabah.

DAP has held Raub and Sarikei for two terms.

Based on the outcome of the Sarawak election last year, Sarikei is also in danger of going back to SUPP.

Another potential seat in danger is Stampin. While DAP won the seat handsomely in 2018 with a 14,221 vote majority - they performed poorly in the state seats under it during the Sarawak polls.

There’s still time

If DAP does lose five of its 42 Parliament seats in GE15, it will have regressed from its 2013 results, when the party won 38 seats.

However, there is still some optimism that DAP can stem the bleeding.

Earlier during his speech to Selangor DAP, Lim said the party still had time to keep all 42 seats under its control.

"We still have time to retain all our 42 seats provided we work hard and find a formula that can pool our strength not to fight each other but together against BN.

"And with the right message, leadership and teamwork we can win again in our seats in Selangor and other state governments that we won in 2018," he added. - Mkini