Landslide victory unlikely in GE13

KUALA LUMPUR - Political analyst Datuk Dr Cheah See Kian believes there will not be any landslide victory for either coalition in the coming general election (GE), China Press reported today.

He said GE13 will see the further strengthening of the two-party system in the country, which "is good for the Chinese community and Chinese education".

He said the two-party system will be the future trend, which is what the majority of Malaysians pursue as it guarantees democracy.

Speaking at a political seminar in Batu Pahat on Saturday evening, Cheah predicted three likely outcomes for GE13: Barisan Nasional (BN) retains power at the federal level and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) keeps Penang, Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan; PR marches into Putrajaya but loses Selangor and Kedah; and BN or PR wins big.

He said it is undeniable that the Chinese community is biased towards PR.

This explains the importance the PR election manifesto places on the community's "suqiu" (appeals), he said. The coalition hopes to garner as much as 85% of the Chinese voters' support.

BN, on the other hand, is trying to swing some of the Chinese voters so that fewer will support PR, said Cheah, who is the Han Chiang College honorary principal.

With 70% of Chinese voters having supported PR in 2008, BN now hopes to bring the figure down to 65%, a small reduction that is enough to make a big difference in some "mixed" constituencies, he said.

"In the last general election, more than 40% of Malay votes went to PR," he added. "If BN can win over 5% of these voters, it may recapture as many as 15 'mixed' seats in GE13."

"However, there is also the likelihood that the national front may lose up to 10 seats each in Johor, Sabah and Sarawak."

Cheah pointed out that even if PR increases its tally by 30 parliamentary seats in the three states, it is also in danger of losing some of the seats it now holds.

Some people believe PR will lose a total of 12 seats in Penang, Kedah, Perak and Selangor.

-thesundaily