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Friday, March 22, 2013

Najib's election gamble: Will it yield fruit or end in TOTAL FIASCO


Najib's election gamble: Will it yield fruit or end in TOTAL FIASCO
On a final check, I was reassured that it's not Wednesday!
Indeed, Najib arrived at the Istana at about eight in the morning for an audience with the King, and stayed there for almost an hour.
So, rumours spread around that the Parliament would be dissolved that day, March 20.
No, no such thing.
Many people are not aware that Wednesday is also the Cabinet meeting day and the prime minister would first meet the King as part of the standard procedure, not to seek consent for the dissolution of the Parliament.
The PM's Department press office has issued a special statement that the Parliament would not be dissolved today.
Not today, but could it be Thursday?
A check on the PM's schedule reveals that BN component parties will meet on this day to discuss election manifesto, and by logic the Parliament will not be dissolved before the manifesto is passed.
Could it be Friday then?
Possible, but Najib will go to Pekan for a campaign event on Saturday, together with a fund-raising event for the Kuantan independent Chinese high school.
Acid test - Monday
How about next Monday? Very likely, as the Negeri Sembilan state assembly will have to be dissolved automatically the following day.
Nevertheless, by logic dissolution of the state government might not imply that the Parliament must also be dissolved concurrently. The dissolution can still be dragged on until April 28 when the current Parliament will expire, but theoretically there are still some 60 days...
This guessing game has been played over and again for the past one whole year. I have no idea whether people are getting exhausted by it or more elated now as the deadline is drawing nigh.
Under the Westminster system, Commonwealth countries have always been gambling over election dates.
It is generally believed that the incumbent government has the advantage of picking the most favourable timing for election, normally at least half a year before the deadline as the government would have less and less space to turn around in the event of any untoward incident, if the deadline is getting too close.
A classical example was the Labour administration of Gordon Brown who took over the baton from Tony Blair in 2007 (not unlike Najib's takeover from Abdullah in 2009), at a time when the public approval rating was high and the overall economy was still in good shape.
Brown had intended to hold the election earlier. Unfortunately he was not resolved enough to call for an election, thinking that things could get better later.
So he kept deferring the election until the breakout of the European financial crisis. The Britons began to lose faith in him and his approval rating was nosediving.
By mid-2010 when the deadline was due, he had no choice but to dissolve the Parliament. His party was thumped by the Conservative Party in the subsequent election.
From the tragic experiences of Gordon Brown, we could see that gambling on election date is no easy game at all, as our plans will never keep up with the changes taking place.
Australia's Julia Gillard, on the other hand, refused to play the gambling game, announcing as early as in January that election would be held in September, despite the fact that she still had plenty of time before the Parliament would actually expire.
Refusing to play the gambling game is also a kind of gamble by itself, for a lengthy campaign period would drain the energy off the opposition parties.
As for Najib, he has his own way of playing the game, stretching the current Parliament as far as the deadline. But unlike Brown's passivity, he comes up with all kinds of tactics to perk up his standing.
As for the final outcome, let's keep the guessing game on.
-Sin Chew Daily

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