Professor Shaharuddin Badaruddin from Universiti Selangor said most of Dr Mahathir’s connections in the government have left office since his retirement in 2003, with only Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s supporters remaining in Putrajaya.
“Dr Mahathir has not been in politics or the government for the past 12 years. He has lost the connection within the government and the Umno machinery,” he told Malay Mail Online.
“When he managed to squeeze Pak Lah, he may have still senior public servants who he could influence, but now it’s all Najib’s men in office,” Shaharuddin added, referring to former prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was forced to resign after repeated attacks from Dr Mahathir.
The political analyst said Umno, which dominates the federal government, remains a party of patronage whose members stay loyal to whoever serves as leader.
Independent analyst Khoo Kay Peng said Dr Mahathir’s weakening influence meant the elder statesman would not have been able to intervene in the Kedah leadership tussle even if he had wanted to.
“His influence has always been limited; he cannot do much within Umno. Once you’re out of the office, it’s pretty much over,” he said.
According to Khoo, if Dr Mahathir wanted to continue his campaign against Najib, his only option is to get Malaysian voters to pressure Umno instead of attempting an internal revolt, as control within the Malay nationalist party is heavily centralised.
“This is really just a payback to him for putting too much power in the office [of] the prime minister and the president of Umno. His chances are better if he engages the community, rather than people within Umno.
“This is where Dr Mahathir could be influential in pressuring Umno to be progressive and undo the centralised system he put in place,” Khoo said.
However, Dr Ooi Kee Beng, deputy director of the Singapore-based Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) Yusof Ishak Institute, said that while Dr Mahathir’s supporters in Umno may be few, they will remain loyal to the former president.
“Dr Mahathir’s allies are few and these are dedicated. I don’t expect these to desert him since they are not on the gravy train of patronage in any case, and the other side is not about to embrace any who wish to switch sides,” he told Malay Mail Online recently in an email interview.
Khoo said a clearer rivalry between factions could form if Najib’s critics, like former deputy prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and ex-minister Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, both of whom remain as Umno deputy and vice-president respectively, banded together with Mukhriz.
“One possibility is a real formation of a Team A versus Team B. Perhaps Muhyiddin is too old to lead, but with Mukhriz there, they could band together around him.
“When there is a break, there must be a clear leadership challenge. So perhaps Mukhriz could be the right person to take on the role,” he said.
Kedah Umno deputy chief Datuk Seri Ahmad Bashah Md Hanipah replaced Mukhriz as mentri besar earlier this week after he led a delegation of Umno division leaders to publicly declare their loss of confidence in Dr Mahathir’s son.
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