Today spelled the end of Anwar Ibrahim’s political career. And with that the entire equation for Pakatan has changed. We are going to see a new formula emerge which is only going to make Najib much stronger. Najib can go and have a good Christmas and come back after the New Year to finish what originally started back in 2008.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
There is this poetic notion that the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil can set off a cascade of atmospheric events that, weeks later, spurs the formation of a tornado in Texas. In other words, things do not happen in isolation. They are all interrelated. One thing triggers another thing and triggers yet another until what happens today happens. That is how it works and you better believe it.
Anyway, while on the subject of believe, many readers post comments saying they do not believe what I say and that at one time they used to but now they no longer do, and so on. That is actually quite understandable. If you have studied Philosophy of Religion and Political Philosophy, like I had a couple of years ago, you will know that this is quite a normal phenomena. Humans believe what they like to believe and will not believe what they don’t like to believe.
In other words your belief system is not based on truth, fact or evidence. Your belief system is based on conjecture. Other meanings for conjecture are: speculation, surmise, notion, suspicion, presumption, assumption, theory, hypothesis, postulation, supposition, inference, extrapolation, and so on. And do not underestimate the power of conjecture. Religious belief is based entirely on conjecture. And many regard religious belief as truth whereas it is not truth but merely conjecture.
You will believe this if you believe it even if it is not true
I will not waste your time by going through the long list of religious conjecture but let me sum it up by saying that you will not believe me if I were to say that the Qur’an did not come for Allah or Jesus did not die on the cross or came back to life three days later or Moses never parted the Red Sea and so on. You already believe these things and nothing I am going to say will change your mind. Therefore, you already believe that Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak stole RM42 billion of 1MDB’s money so there is nothing I can say or do to make you change your mind about that ‘truth’.
So let us conclude by saying you believe what you believe based on conjecture, whether it is true or not, and I will believe what I believe because I research the truth. And we will agree to disagree as to what represents the ‘truth’. So now let us move on and talk about the flap of a butterfly’s wing in Brazil can set off a cascade of atmospheric events that, weeks later, spurs the formation of a tornado in Texas.
Tornado in Texas: can a butterfly in Brazil cause this?
On 8th March 2008, Malaysia’s opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, won five states and 82 Parliament seats in Malaysia’s 12th General Election since 1959. Some political analysts say that the internet was partly responsible for this and the irony of this whole thing is that it was Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad who wanted Malaysia to become the leading internet nation in Asia.
Anyway, whether Mahathir can be indirectly blamed for what happened in the March 2008 general election or not, he was certainly directly responsible. Mahathir was upset with his successor, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, because the Prime Minister’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, was an obstacle to Mukhriz’s political future. Khairy had to die before Mukhriz can more forward and for Khairy to die Abdullah must die first.
So Mahathir engineered the fall of Penang to the opposition by asking the MCA Chinese to give their support to DAP. Kelantan was for sure going to PAS and what happened was that not only did Penang and Kelantan fall but so did Kedah, Perak and Selangor as well.
It looked like the next general election in 2013 was going to be in favour of the opposition coalition. After grabbing Penang, Kedah, Perak, Selangor and Kelantan, plus 82 Parliament seats, the opposition would next grab Perlis, Terengganu, Pahang, Sabah and Sarawak plus another 35 Parliament seats, giving them a simple majority in Parliament — 117 seats versus Barisan Nasional’s 105. Yes, back in March 2008 very few Malaysians would disagree that the 2013 general election was when Umno and Barisan Nasional were going to be history.
Anwar Ibrahim’s Sodomy 2 conviction: the butterfly effect that triggered Pakatan’s demise
Then something unexpected happened. Three months later, Anwar Ibrahim was implicated in his second sodomy scandal and suddenly the butterfly had flapped its wings. At that time no one saw the butterfly effect but as I said nothing happens in isolation. Because of ‘Sodomy 2’, Anwar was no longer cool and started making panic decisions. One panic decision was his ‘September 16’ fiasco, the move that was supposed to keep him out of jail.
On 16th September 2008, around 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament were supposed to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat triggering the downfall of the government. That did not happen. The second bad decision was Anwar’s interference in Perak. Anwar tried to remove Menteri Besar Nizar Jamaluddin and replace him with an Umno candidate and Perak fell into the hands of Barisan Nasional.
I suppose that is what happens when you make decisions with your dick and not with your head. And Anwar is one man who does not know how to keep his zipper up and his dick in his pants. Anyway, from June 2008 to February 2009, it was a disaster for the opposition after starting out quite well in March 2008. Even the late Karpal Singh was pissed with Anwar, as you can see in the video below.
Karpal Singh: very disgusted with Anwar’s lack of ethics, morals and principles
On 3rd April 2009, Najib Tun Razak took over as Prime Minister and the ballgame changed. The opposition were no longer dealing with a weak and lethargic Abdullah Badawi. They were now going to have to deal with Najib and the rules of the game were going to change. But the opposition did not know this. They thought that with Najib as Prime Minister it would be easier to topple the government than with Abdullah as Prime Minister.
How wrong they were and they were in time going to find out. Meanwhile, Anwar’s sodomy trial proceeded and Mukhriz tried to win the Umno Youth leadership but failed in a three-corner contest with Khairy and Khir Toyo. Things moved on till May 2013 when another general election was held. That was the general election that was supposed to see Pakatan replace Barisan Nasional as the government but it did not happen as many had expected. There was just too much infighting in the opposition while Anwar was too distracted in trying to stay out of jail.
Many also predicted that if Pakatan wants to take over then it has to be in May 2013. If it does not happen in May 2013 then it is never going to happen. It did not happen so that most likely means it is never going to happen. Nevertheless, how unlikely it may be, the opposition still has to try again in 2018 or so and in the meantime they need to strengthen themselves to prepare for the next battle in 2018.
Instead, the opposition did the opposite. Instead of strengthening themselves, they became weaker. And because of this they panicked and made a deal with the very devil that is the reason the opposition is weak in the first place. In their desperation, the opposition clung to Mahathir and tried to seek salvation through Mahathir. That was the single biggest mistake the opposition ever made and is the reason the opposition in Malaysia is more or less finished for at least the next decade or so.
Khalid Ibrahim got ousted but Anwar still went to jail
Soon after the 2013 general election, out of sheer panic that he was facing conviction on ‘Sodomy 2’, Anwar plotted the ouster of Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim. The plan was Anwar would take over as Menteri Besar so that the government would not dare put him in jail for sodomy. Only God knows how Anwar came to this most stupid conclusion. Even Selangor Menteri Besar Harun Idris, a person more powerful than Anwar, was sent to jail.
Just before the ‘Kajang Move’ could see fruition, Anwar was convicted of sodomy. So that plan fell flat and his wife, Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, had to contest the Kajang by-election instead. But she was not able to take over as the Selangor Menteri Besar and the job went to Azmin Ali instead. That caused a split in PKR, which, until today, cannot be solved.
Even worse was that PAS supported Azmin while DAP wanted Wan Azizah (and PKR was split). DAP was so angry they sponsored a ‘Team B’ in PAS to oust its President, Abdul Hadi Awang. The coup failed and ‘Team B’ left the party to form a new party called PAN that was sponsored and funded by DAP. DAP then unilaterally closed down Pakatan Rakyat and set up Pakatan Harapan with PAN as their new Islamic partner. That effectively turned PAS into a ‘third force’ belonging to neither Barisan or Pakatan and it was DAP that did that.
With Anwar in jail and PAS no longer a member of the opposition coalition, Pakatan panicked. They realise they had made a mistake and were going to pay for it dearly by getting wiped out in the next general election. Two years ago on Friday, 12th December 2014, Khairuddin Abu Hassan made a police report against 1MDB at the behest of Mahathir. That was basically the official declaration of war against Najib.
For six months Mahathir and his team of conspirators continued their attacks on Najib and in July 2015 Najib struck back and finished them off. The attacks continued until year end and each and every time Najib deflected the attacks.
Mukhriz out: the son always pays for the father’s sins
On 3rd February 2016, Mukhriz was removed as the Kedah Menteri Bear and, as expected, on 29th February 2016, Mahathir resigned from Umno. That was what Najib wanted and Mahathir did what he wanted. That would now make Mahathir a ‘free man’ and the opposition would for certain exploit the situation and work with Mahathir.
And that was what happened. The opposition, which was also in dire straits, cozied up to Mahathir while Mahathir, who also needed a fighting force, played footsie. And this is a recipe for disaster because they all have different doctrines and motivations although they share the same objective: which is to topple the government.
Today, a new equation has been added to that formula. Today, Anwar just lost his application for a judicial review so he needs to stay in jail until 2018, which will be until after the next general election for sure. Anyway, Anwar will not be able to contest the general election until after five years from 2018: which means after 2023. And the general election would most likely be held around 2027-2028 when Anwar will be around 80 years old or so.
So that is the end of Anwar. And that means Pakatan Harapan needs a new leader. And that is when the fun will begin because there are many who can fit that bill. One thing to note, though, is that Pakatan Harapan is a DAP-led coalition so whoever becomes the new opposition leader must be with DAP’s approval. Currently, Lim Kit Siang is the de facto opposition leader. And who Kit Siang says is the head honcho will be the head honcho. But then where is PAS in this whole thing? Can Kit Siang continue to ignore PAS and get away with it?
That is what we will need to wait for the New Year to discover. And trust me on this one: some unexpected surprises are looming over the horizon which can only be good for Barisan Nasional and bad for Pakatan Rakyat. And Mahathir and his new party are playing with the losers, not with the winners.
Who is going to be the new ringmaster in the Pakatan circus?