Umno And Bersatu Are Playing A Game Of Chicken

 

There is a saying: everyone has a price. The only question is, can you afford to pay that price? This is not just about paying RM25 million to each MP for him or her to cross over. It may be costlier than that. And while His Majesty the Agong ponders on whether Muhyiddin should stay on as PM8 or Anwar should take over as PM9, Umno and Bersatu need to sit down for some serious horse-trading and agree on the NEW terms of the marriage.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

For the benefit of those who do not know what a game of chicken is, a good example would be two cars speeding towards one another and the first driver who swerves out of the way would be said to have chickened out, hence losing the game.

Umno and Bersatu could be said to be playing that game of chicken. It is a sort of staring contest and the one who blinks first would have chickened out and would have lost the contest.

India and Pakistan are also playing a game of chicken and the result is Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)

But then, who wins and who loses in this Umno-Bersatu game of chicken or Umno-Bersatu staring contest? No one wins. Both lose.

Of course, the wins and losses are intangible, not tangible. If Umno blinks first or chickens out, then Bersatu would win in terms of pride, dignity, honour, etc. And if Bersatu blinks first or chickens out, then Umno would win — also in terms of pride, dignity, honour, and so on.

These “gains” are called intangibles. In business, both tangibles and intangibles have value. For example, a business may have just RM1 million in assets but you pay RM10 million to buy it over because the name of that business has goodwill and is worth ten times its asset value (example: McDonald’s).

Names can be worth far more than the asset value

So, Umno or Bersatu may not be worth RM1 billion in asset value. However, in terms of name, Umno and Bersatu may be worth far more than RM1 billion. And they would be worth far more than RM1 billion not only because of their names but because of their membership base as well.

(Banks buy over credit card companies because of their membership base, plus name, of course).

And this is why both Umno and Bersatu need to be seen as being the number one, the boss of bosses. But then there appears to be some confusion as to who is really the number one. Is it Umno or is it Bersatu?

There cannot be two tigers on the same mountain. There can only be one. So, who is that tiger, Umno or Bersatu?

This game of chicken is a high-stakes game and in the Umno-Bersatu case there are no winners, only losers

This was what has been dogging Perikatan Nasional over the last seven months or so since the coalition took over on 1st March 2020. The matter of who is in charge or who is in control appears blurred. Hence this matter needs to be resolved once and for all.

The ground is very unhappy. Umno and Bersatu are in a love-hate relationship. They cannot live with each other and they cannot live without each other either.

Umno and Bersatu are like Siamese twins that cannot be separated. It is okay if you separate these Siamese twins to save one while allowing the other one to die. But when both will die, there is no question of separating them.

PAS is a third partner in this marriage. PAS can go either with Umno or with Bersatu, or with both Umno and Bersatu at the same time in a threesome. But first Umno and Bersatu need to decide whether the marriage still exists. Then PAS will need to decide which bed to crawl into.

PAS may need to decide which bed they want to crawl into

The Umno-Bersatu, or Umno-Bersatu-PAS marriage is not over yet. There is still hope. But then ego and pride need to be set aside. And when dealing with individuals who suffer not only from ego and pride but from arrogance as well, that is not always easy.

Anwar Ibrahim’s drama is another factor that impacts the Perikatan Nasional of Umno, Bersatu and PAS. Anwar’s coup to oust Muhyiddin Yassin cannot succeed if based just on Pakatan Harapan alone. It must include at least a dozen or more MPs from Perikatan Nasional.

That is why Anwar refused to reveal the full list of names in his audience with His Majesty Seri Paduka Baginda Yang di-Pertuan Agong yesterday. He does not want the names of those Perikatan Nasional MPs who support him to become public knowledge.

Anwar is worried that the PN MPs who support him may deny they support him or may be bought over (or blackmailed). Furthermore, their support for Anwar is conditional, not unconditional. And if these conditions are not met, they will withdraw support.

And one of these conditions is Anwar must win. If Anwar fails to obtain His Majesty’s consent to take over as PM9, then they will not cross over to Anwar’s new government. Hence Anwar will get his 120 MPs if he becomes PM9. If not, they will not join the losing side but will stay with the government in power.

Anwar is stuck in a Catch 22 situation

It is a sort of Catch 22 situation. Anwar needs these 120 MPs to become PM but he will not get the 120 MPs if he does not become PM.

And this is where His Majesty the Agong holds the winning card. If His Majesty hints that Anwar is being considered for the post of PM9, then the exodus will start. The crossovers from Perikatan Nasional will begin. But thus far His Majesty the Agong has not shown any excitement over the prospects of Anwar taking over from Muhyiddin.

This uncertainty of Anwar taking over as PM9 is working in Umno’s favour. The 20 or so MPS from Perikatan Nasional that Anwar needs to become PM are mainly from Umno. So Muhyiddin and Bersatu need to retain Umno’s support. And that support comes with a price.

There is a saying: everyone has a price. The only question is, can you afford to pay that price? This is not just about paying RM25 million to each MP for him or her to cross over. It may be costlier than that. And while His Majesty the Agong ponders on whether Muhyiddin should stay on as PM8 or Anwar should take over as PM9, Umno and Bersatu need to sit down for some serious horse-trading and agree on the NEW terms of the marriage.