A CONTROVERSIAL recent Bloomberg article suggested that Malaysia is barrelling towards a failed state got many to jump into the fray to offer their take of the situation.
Government ministers were especially vocal in disputing the thesis. Some in the opposition were broadly aligned to the thrust of the article. The public was divided; some arguing that naysayers will always be around.
In essence, the article asserts four main fault lines that portend such an apocalyptic outcome. People's misery and a sputtering economy on account of lockdowns constitute the first fault line.
The slowness in achieving herd immunity through an accelerated immunisation programme is another. The third fault line is the lack of an assertive political leadership whose legitimacy to rule would need to be affirmed when Parliament reopens in August.
This is even more imperative with the withdrawal of support of Umno, a major party, from the ruling coalition. Compounding this combustible mix are race relations.
The points raised by the Bloomberg article have a ring of truth about them. We cannot deny we are ranked 57 out of 180 countries in the 2020 Corruption Transparency Index. True, race relations are an elephant in the room. And the pandemic has clobbered lives and livelihoods.
We should, however, point out that the exact state of turmoil required to brand a state as having failed varies immensely. Notwithstanding, it is rather a stretch to say that we are on the road to perdition.
If Wikipedia and Britanica are a reliable guide, a failed state is one that has become dysfunctional. This would mean that the government has lost its legitimacy to rule. It would also mean public services are in disarray and the state has lost its monopoly over the legitimate use of physical force.
Failed statehood would also mean that the country is not able to secure its borders and has lost the esteem of the world community. It would also mean that the state is unable to tax its people, and its physical infrastructure has come crumbling down.
Such conditions may precipitate massive corruption, crime, emigration, and a sharp plunge in economic growth. Such turn of events may even precipitate a military takeover either from within or without.
Myanmar uses the army to brutally suppress its people who do not recognise the government into submission. The Myanmarese, in turn, have taken up arms, however crude, to fight the army's illegal takeover in February. And the state appears incapable of subjecting the whole country to its will.
There is anarchy in the streets and strikes have paralysed businesses. The state apparatus has broken with massive numbers of public servants walking out of their jobs. The World Bank predicts that Myanmar's economy will shrink by 10 per cent. Admittedly, the lawlessness there is nowhere near Afghanistan. Nevertheless, Myanmar is enroute to becoming a failed state.
We must admit that conditions here are nowhere near that of Myanmar or even close to the conditions portrayed in standard definitions of a failed state. Malaysia's economic growth in 2021 is projected to grow at a commendable clip of 4.5 per cent.
Public services are functioning well; albeit amid the pandemic, health care services especially are stretched thin. Criminals are not running riot; unions are not on strike and there is no loss of sovereignty.
People are not homeless. Poverty, on account of lockdowns, may be lurking in more households, but that again is being handled by the government and the caring populace.
Most importantly, apart from helping the police to man roadblocks, the army is still in its barracks.
Notwithstanding, the debate over failed statehood is a welcome wake up call for Malaysia. We need to take heed.
The writer, Prof. Datuk Dr. John Antony Xavier is the AIMST University's vice-chancellor. - NST
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