Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob's new cabinet is designed to ensure Umno reclaims Putrajaya in the next general election by taking over four key ministries from its allies, said political analysts.
Universiti Malaya's Awang Azman Awang Pawi referred to the rural development, communications and multimedia, and housing and local government ministries which were previously helmed by Bersatu, as well as the entrepreneur development and cooperatives ministry, previously spearheaded by GPS.
These ministries will have a huge influence over small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the rural Malay heartland, which was the Umno/BN fortress in the past elections, said Awang.
"I see it as a cabinet line-up for the next general elections, as the key portfolios are taken over by Umno," he added.
The Rural Development Ministry, which is entrusted to address poverty in rural areas, oversees statutory bodies include Mara and Felcra which oversee a huge number of GLCs.
The Entrepreneur Development Ministry oversees the SMEs, which constitute more than 90 percent of the corporate sector.
The Penggerak Komuniti Tempatan, or community activist (PeKT), which was set up by the Housing and Local Government Ministry under the helm of Bersatu's Zuraida Kamaruddin, is also seen as a political tool to oust the states controlled by the opposition, while the Communication and Multimedia Ministry will be able to control the discourse and narrative ahead of the polls, argued Awang.
He also foresees a decline in the fortunes of Bersatu as well as Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi's faction due to the new cabinet line-up.
This is because, he said, Ismail Sabri did not appoint Umno's Pengerang MP Azalina Othman Said and Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan into his cabinet.
"This is to ensure that the group aligned to Zahid and (former premier) Najib Abdul Razak do not stand out. He appointed older politicians instead - Shahidan Kassim, Noh Omar and Mahdzir Khalid," he added.
Familiar faces in key positions
Ismail Sabri this morning unveiled his cabinet line-up which is set to be sworn in next Monday (Aug 30).
Many key positions such as that of finance, home, education, transport, works, and human resources saw the same faces retained from former premier Muhyiddin Yassin's line-up.
There was also no deputy prime minister named, with four "senior ministers" similar to Muhyiddin's cabinet.
Former religious affairs minister Zulkifli Mohamad, former plantation industries and commodities minister Khairuddin Aman Razali and former special functions minister Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof were among the few to be jettisoned by the new prime minister.
Based on how Ismail Sabri made his choices, Awang did not rule out that the premier planned to remain in power beyond the 15th general election (GE15).
While PAS was given the Religious Affairs Ministry through Senator Idris Ahmad and deputy minister posts, Awang noted this may not benefit the Islamic party.
"Well, since now PAS is in direct control of religious affairs, its supporters will hold PAS responsible for many issues related to religion, including the amendment to Act 355, or Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act," he said.
"This can become a double-edged sword to PAS," he added.
Overly cautious selection by Ismail Sabri
Meanwhile, political scientist Wong Chin Huat described Ismail Sabri's cabinet as "Muhyiddin Cabinet 2.0".
"It is hard to imagine how almost the same line-up with some swap of portfolios - most notably between Khairy Jamaluddin (now health minister) and Dr Adham Baba (now science, technology and innovation minister) - can avoid being labelled as #KerajaanGagal2.
"Ismail Sabri is overly cautious in not dropping deadwood ministers like Adham or Rina Harun or promoting Khairy as a senior minister in charge of pandemics, just to show some differences," he said.
"He wasted his newly gained political capital from his peacemaking with the opposition," Wong added.
Wong said with an expected confidence and supply agreement (CSA) with the opposition in his hand, Ismail Sabri should have been bolder to fend off the competing demands from Bersatu, Umno and GPS to build a team with some bright spots.
"By 'playing safe' on his cabinet line-up, he has likely put himself in danger. Any blunder by his ministers will likely provoke more anger and frustration from the public," he added.
Wong also predicted that many within the Umno supreme council would likely be furious as only one of the party's demands - no deputy prime minister post - was met.
"Two inter-related issues are likely to reignite the Umno civil war, as Muhyiddin is seen as Ismail Sabri's invisible minister mentor.
"First, with an 87 percent similar administration, Umno fears that the party would pay dearly for the government's continuous failure.
"Secondly, Umno's main contention of Bersatu's dominance in government is hardly addressed, with the latter losing in net one minister's post and two deputy ministers' post," he said.
However, Wong warned that it would be fatal if the opposition thinks that it can try another round of the numbers game to play on such unhappiness.
“Whether it is under (PKR president) Anwar Ibrahim, (Warisan chief) Shafie Apdal or whosoever - the public has no tolerance for such replaying of a failed script.
"The opposition's best deal is perhaps to secure a CSA with Ismail Sabri on much more favourable terms than that offered by Muhyiddin on Aug 13, and form its shadow cabinet to compete on policy idea, as a stark comparison to the Muhyiddin 2.0 Cabinet," he said.
Huge waste of time
University of Tasmania's Asian Studies professor James Chin was blunt in his assessment, telling Malaysiakini that the whole political crisis was a “complete waste” of time, energy and resources.
“The whole political crisis from July until now is a complete waste - waste of time, waste of energy,” Chin said in a phone call today.
He added that the country “got the same thing” with a widely expected line-up.
Like Awang, he did find the fresh appointment of PAS' Idris as religious affairs minister, as one of the most significant changes made to the cabinet.
“It’s dangerous because PAS is a bit of a loose cannon so it may do something that will disrupt everything.
“Don’t forget, the main reason Muhyiddin failed was because the law minister, who came from PAS, was the one who shot off his mouth and started a (political) crisis,” said Chin, referring to the remarks made by former law minister Takiyuddin Hassan in Parliament last month, which resulted in a royal rebuke.
However, Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow Noorshahril Saat felt differently on the matter.
“On the appointment of a PAS member as religious affairs (minister), I think one should not read too much into this.
“Religion falls under the jurisdiction of states and the Malay rulers. Also, PAS' involvement in the last Muhyiddin cabinet did not result in any discussion of an Islamic state, hudud laws, or even Act 355.
“Thus, these are unlikely to be on the government's radar for now,” Noorshahril told Malaysiakini.
Lack of DPM confirms tensions
Another Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute senior fellow Lee Hwok Aun said that while Ismail Sabri’s choices were utterly lacking in imagination, they were a representation of the ruling coalition’s tenuous state and power dynamics.
“The ruling coalition underwent a position swap of the two top parties Umno and Bersatu; likewise, the cabinet has also undergone a slight reshuffle.
“Still, while we expected Ismail Sabri to play it safe, this line-up is desperately uninspiring. There was a shallow talent pool among the MPs, but the absence of sure-footed and dynamic appointments via the senatorial route is disappointing.
“This confirms that relations within Umno and between Umno and Bersatu are still fraught with factional strife and distrust. It is also a calculated coalition move to distribute senior ministerships among Umno, Bersatu and GPS,” he told Malaysiakini.
However, Lee said that appointing Khairy as health minister was probably the most notable performance-based move since the Rembau MP was generally lauded for his handling of the vaccination programme.
“At the same time, retaining Adham in the cabinet, and swapping seats with Khairy, will surely be the subject of unflattering social media memes."
As for Ismail’s announcement that the cabinet will undergo a performance review after its first 100 days, Lee remains sceptical.
“It is an attempt to show that the administration is serious, but the cabinet should just get on with the job and report progress from the word 'go', instead of this rather self-aggrandising exercise.
"This ‘first 100 days’ concept should only apply to newly elected governments,” he added.
People were expecting too much from PM
Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng felt that onlookers of the government had expected too much from the new prime minister in his cabinet formation.
"If the political situation is going to be the same, I don't think Ismail Sabri has a lot of flexibility to completely change his whole line.
"We all have to remember that he scrambled very hard, hoping to get the right kind of support to become the PM," Khoo told Malaysiakini over a phone call today.
According to Khoo, Ismail Sabri had landed the prime ministerial post because of Muhyiddin and he represented a non-threatening figure.
"Being the deputy prime minister, he was, of course, very grateful and non-threatening.
"The person is not a major force in Umno. Like what Zahid (Hamidi) said, given a choice, Ismail Sabri was only the third choice in the party.
"To begin with, he is not someone who is influential enough to be able to come up with a new formula and put it to the coalition partners to accept it," he said.
Khoo was also not impressed by the performance review proposal, saying that the prime minister's idea looked to be merely a "PR announcement".
"Obviously, he did not provide details on how the cabinet members will be measured. What are the KPIs? So, it is just a PR move," Khoo added. - Mkini
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