Tug of war for PM’s post

 

Team Perikatan and Team Umno are fighting hard for the chance to lead the country.

WHAT we’ve been witnessing for almost a year in Malaysian politics is a tug of war between the Per-ikatan Nasional government and a faction in Umno.

Prime Minister and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin leads Team Perikatan and Team Umno is led by party president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. It is a frenemy fight as most Umno MPs, led by party vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, are with Team Perikatan.

The prize for winning this contest of political strength is the Prime Minister’s post.

It’s a battle that began, arguably, after the snap Sabah elections in September last year. Umno – to be exact, the faction that is against Bersatu – was enraged that the Sabah Chief Minister’s post went to its Federal Government partner. For some politicians in both parties, the Umno faction was finding an excuse to pick a fight with Bersatu.

In December 2020, Umno exacted revenge when it tugged the Perak Menteri Besar’s post from Bersatu deputy president Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu through a vote of confidence in the state assembly. Umno’s Datuk Saarani Mohamad became the Menteri Besar.

Both sides have been pulling on the rope with no clear winner yet.

For example, just hours before Umno jerked the rope to try to bring down Muhyiddin with a Supreme Council decision on July 7 to withdraw support for the Prime Minister with immediate effect, the Prime Minister’s Office announced the promotion of Senior Minister Ismail Sabri to Deputy Prime Minister.

Many thought Umno had won the tug of war against Muhyiddin when on Tuesday Ahmad Zahid announced that the party had retracted its support for Muhyiddin with at least 11 party MPs out of 38 supporting the move. And Umno’s Lenggong MP Datuk Seri Dr Shamsul Anuar Nasarah quit as Energy and Natural Resources Minister.

That means that only 104 MPs out of 220 are supporting Muhyiddin. Unless the Prime Minister can top up his numbers, he has lost his majority.

Muhyiddin tugged back.

On Wednesday, after a face-to-face meeting with Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah at the Istana in Kuala Lumpur, the Prime Minister announced that he would not quit and a confidence motion would be tabled in Parliament in September.

Universiti Malaysia Pahang Constitutional expert Assoc Prof Datuk Wan Ahmad Fauzi Wan Husain pointed out that it was a wise move by the Agong to let Parliament resolve the legitimacy of the Prime Minister when it sits again in September.

“A vote of confidence is the best solution. We need to put a stop to the question of whether Tan Sri Muhyiddin has command of the majority (of the MPs) or not,” he said.

“If you don’t, then let a new Prime Minister be appointed. But if Tan Sri Muhyiddin wins a vote of confidence, let him finish his term, or he could call for an election – as he has promised – when we reach herd immunity against Covid-19.”

In this political tug of war over the PM’s post, Assoc Prof Wan Ahmad noted that the Constitution and Agong are the referees. But when the 15th General Election takes place, the voters will be the referee.

I asked an Umno insider, who did not want to be identified, which team could win this political tarik tali (tug of war). “Both will lose,” he said. “The Perikatan Nasional government will collapse.”

The Umno insider explained that it was pretty surprising that even after the King had agreed to a vote of confidence next month, Ahmad Zahid still insisted on getting more people to oppose Muhyiddin.

“I believe he has a hidden agenda. If he was wiser, he would use this one month (before the September majority test) to strengthen Umno’s position and not his position. He should also get support from outside the Perikatan government, like from Pejuang or Parti Warisan Sabah,” he said.

“Use this synergy to urge Muhyiddin to go for a Cabinet reshuffle to let Ismail Sabri lead the government. But now we see that Zahid is thinking of his own interest (reportedly via a deal with PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim) rather than Umno’s.

“That is why Umno leaders like (Padang Rengas MP Datuk Seri Mohamed) Nazri Aziz insist on supporting Muhyiddin. It is not that they want him to remain as PM, but Zahid insists on toppling not only Muhyiddin but also the Perikatan government.”

On the possible game plan of Umno’s power broker Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is among the MPs who have withdrawn support for Muhyiddin, a Bersatu insider said it is hard to read Bossku, as the former Prime Minister is now known. “He has his political eggs in different baskets,” he said.

But the Bersatu insider believes that Najib has nothing to lose. “Muhyiddin burnt that bridge when in his announcement that he won’t resign, he said he wouldn’t be dictated to by the court cluster (which includes Najib who has several cases pending in court). How can Muhyiddin retract his words?” he said.

On Friday, Team Perikatan tugged back with Deputy Prime Minister Ismail Sabri announcing that 31 out of the 42 Barisan Nasional MPs supported Muhyid-din. Team Umno retorted that the numbers only proved that the Prime Minister has lost his majority.

Team Perikatan, however, received a boost when the Registrar of Societies (ROS) said that the decision made on July 7 by Umno’s Supreme Council to postpone party polls for 18 months is invalid.

Team Umno then pulled back when Wanita Umno chief and Pasir Sulong MP Datuk Seri Dr Noraini Ahmad resigned as Higher Education Minister.

Universiti Utara Malaysia political science lecturer Dr Kamarul Zaman Yusoff thinks that with MPs from all Barisan parties – Umno, MCA, MIC and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah – taking the Deputy Prime Minister’s side, in the coalition’s context, it sounded the death knell for Ahmad Zahid as Barisan chairman.

“If three of Barisan’s components stick with their decision to go against Ahmad Zahid and the Umno Supreme Council’s decision, then Ahmad Zahid will lose his legitimacy to lead Barisan. And without Barisan, what is Umno?” he said.

He said the situation is different in Umno. Although its president has lost the support of 27 out of 38 party MPs, Ahmad Zahid still has the support of a majority of the Supreme Council members.

However, Kamarul Zaman argued that the Umno president’s position has been made extremely tenuous by the ROS decision and Ahmad Zahid’s fate now hangs in the balance.

“The Umno president has now effectively been turned into a paper tiger, toothless and with the sword of Damocles hanging not just over his head but also over Umno’s head,” he said.

The political scientist pointed out ROS director-general Jasri Kasim has said that the 2018/2021 Supreme Council officer bearers’ positions are awaiting approval from ROS of Umno’s fresh application to postpone party elections. “Even if it gets the ROS green light, their power will just be limited to managing administrative matters a la an interim government,” he said.

According to Kamarul Zaman, this would give the upper hand to Ismail Sabri’s faction, given that they would no longer be bound by Supreme Council decisions made after June 30, when the 2018/2021 term for office bearers ended.

“Before this, many Umno MPs were afraid that if they were to go against the party directive to retract support for the Prime Minister and the Perikatan government, they would be sacked from the party by Ahmad Zahid. But with the ROS decision perhaps saying that he no longer can sack party members, of course, these Umno MPs will be emboldened to fight against him.

“The other fear is that if Ahmad Zahid is still the Umno president when GE15 is held, they will lose the right to represent Umno and Barisan. But with the ROS decision, Ahmad Zahid is no longer assured of his presidency when GE15 comes. It is very likely that with Ismail Sabri now being a Deputy Prime Minister, he will win convincingly in the party elections, which needs to be held soon,” he said.

Muhyiddin has an incumbency advantage in the tug of war with the Umno president. In contrast, Ahmad Zahid can threaten rebellious party MPs with disciplinary action or with not fielding them in GE15.

Which team can pull the other side across the dividing line? Which group do you want to win? - Star