Sungai Bakap polls outcome too close to call, says Ilham Centre

 

SUNGAI BAKAP BY-ELECTION | Think tank Ilham Centre has concluded that the upcoming by-election in Penang remained intense, with Pakatan Harapan-BN and Perikatan Nasional having an equal chance of emerging as winners.

It said in a report that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s government could take the seat from PN if it managed to persuade Chinese voters to cast their ballots.

However, this strategy may only succeed if the turnout difference between Malay and Chinese voters does not exceed 15 percent.

“Otherwise, PN will maintain the status quo as the seat winner,” the report noted.

Polling day for the Sungai Bakap by-election is tomorrow and features a head-to-head contest between PN’s Abidin Ismail and Harapan candidate Joohari Ariffin after the passing of incumbent Nor Zamri Latiff on May 24.

Elaborating further, the report identified three key factors influencing the by-election outcome: Chinese voter turnout, Umno voter sentiment, and the swing among young voters.

While Chinese voters have traditionally supported Harapan in past elections, the situation in Sungai Bakap differs, potentially due to government economic policies and the state government’s performance on water and infrastructure.

Some Chinese voters indicated they may abstain from voting, while others remain committed to participating. Indian voters, the report notes, continue to support the government, particularly responding positively to the Harapan campaign.

Umno wild card

Although the “Green Wave” has waned, the report claimed that it may still impact Umno’s voter base.

Despite a weakened inclination towards PN among voters, core Umno voters have shown little support for Harapan.

“Our survey of core Umno voters shows that some still support PN, while others remain undecided and are weighing their options. 

“Regardless of their final decision, Umno’s approach to reconnecting with their voters is increasingly accepted,” it said. 

The report was prepared by the think tank’s research panel, which consisted of Mohd Yusri Ibrahim (research head), Hisommudin Bakar (executive director), Mohd Azlan Zainal (chief operations officer), and Mohd Jalaluddin Hashim (chief analyst).

Meanwhile, it also highlighted significant changes among young voters compared to previous by-elections.

The report observed that support among young voters towards PN remains strong but it is less fervent than in the previous by-elections, with some adopting a more casual attitude to the poll.

“Some young voters are beginning to feel comfortable wearing the government coalition’s T-shirts and casually chatting around, a scenario less prominent in the previous state election,” it said. - Mkini