Mahathir: The man BN fears the most

Speculation continues to flare over whether Dr Mahathir Mohamad will be named as Pakatan Harapan’s candidate for Prime Minister.

One of the bigger questions asked about this is: is this a morally correct move?

Unfortunately, that is the one question I cannot afford to address satisfactorily in this article. It really is a conversation with too many considerations and details.

While leaving the answer to that question open (even though it may be the most important question of all), we can still try and better understand some of the political dynamics at play in this controversy, and make estimations of the comparative political impact such a move would have.

The most basic question we can start with is: how will choosing to nominate Mahathir as candidate for prime minister affect Harapan’s performance in GE14?

All BN guns aimed at Mahathir

I think the best way to find the answer to this question is to look at BN over the past few weeks and months.

In this time, the amount of BN guns that have been aimed towards Mahathir has been nothing short of astounding.

I would almost go so far to say that BN has practically ignored everything else about Harapan, essentially construing Mahathir as the one and only relevant threat.

Everyone goes out of their way to attack Mahathir - Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak (photo), Umno, MCA, even PAS.

Scanning the news reveals this easily discernible, consistent pattern.

This is significant, because we must remember, the ruling party has access to state apparatus and data collecting resources leaps and abound above everyone else.

It is widely believed that large sections of the police Special Branch fulfil the role that in other countries is often played by professional pollsters: doing on the ground political polling and research.

Their findings are obviously fed back up the chain of command, and I think a reasonable assumption to make based on BN’s attacks is that Mahathir is having a significant impact on the electorate.

Mahathir’s ‘golden age’

I suppose it’s not terribly hard to speculate or imagine why this might be so.

Mahathir presided over what is probably an unprecedented period of growth for Malaysia.

For some, it was a reign of terror and repression. For others, it may have been the closest to a “golden age” that Malaysia has ever had, especially economically speaking.

Certainly, he was premier during some of Malaysia’s worst economic periods as well, but those might be remembered as a time when the rest of the region was also reeling from the same crises.

Besides, it is not uncommon for humans to remember the good more than the bad when looking back, especially when comparing economic situations between today and yesteryear.

How Malays remember Mahathir

Demographics are also an important consideration. For the majority of time Mahathir was premier, Umno was absolutely dominant.

Challengers to BN hegemony was relatively weak, and Umno even had the luxury of spending more time and energy fighting their own coalition allies than they did having to fend off the opposition.

Even then, Umno’s dominance over parties like MCA and MIC remained strong.

It is possible that this is what voters in Umno strongholds remember most about Mahathir.

The situation now is quite different, with parties like DAP infinitely stronger than they were during Mahathir’s time, as compared to parties like MCA, which are universally viewed as impotent placeholders.

There is some irony that Mahathir is now working together with DAP, but perhaps voters simply see that as the replacement of one Chinese component party with another.

Feeling the economic pinch

All this sits on top of what may be the most relevant factor: people aren’t feeling like they’re doing economically well. Perhaps they think back to Mahathir’s time, and reminisce on how good it all used to be.

There has probably always been a tolerance of some degree of what we usually view as corruption, but perhaps some of the fundamental opposition line that ruling politicians are getting rich while the rest of us struggle harder and harder is seeping through.

Dissatisfaction may not be intensely widespread, spilling out into the streets and such.

That said, we should remember that the case was similar in 2008, where the lack of political hype disguised a quiet discontent, which eventually manifested into a political tsunami that no one expected.

There is a chance that we are seeing something similar now, ten years later.

A dark horse?

Amid such an atmosphere, a figure like Mahathir appears as a volatile, unpredictable factor - a dark horse almost.

His stature and track record probably rank much higher than Najib’s in many of Umno’s core strongholds.

It is for this reason primarily that in terms of available candidates for prime minister, Mahathir will likely have the most Harapan-friendly impact on seats that matter.

Presumably, it will come down to how much stock voters put into an institution like Umno as a whole, or how much they believe it is the institution’s leaders - more than the institution itself - that have shaped past successes.

Between morality and expediency

All said, just because nominating Mahathir may get Harapan the most votes, this does not mean that it is ultimately the right thing to do.

Determining that is a much more difficult ethical question, and pivots a lot on the many different ways different people define “right.”

I think it is fair to say however, that no other potential candidates will have the kind of impact Mahathir will have.

The latest salvo by PAS is to accuse Mahathir of betraying Harapan at the last moment to go back to Umno.

On one hand, we can’t really put anything past a politician who has made as many varied moves as Mahathir has. On the other, this could merely be the latest in a long string of BN throwing everything but the kitchen sink, in trying to sink Mahathir.

That relentless effort should be seen for what it is: a sign that BN – who we can reasonably assume has more reliable information than we do – considers him their number one threat to staying in power.

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NATHANIEL TAN wishes all of us courage, to face the new year well.- Mkini