Azmin Ali, the biggest winner by far, so far

Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s announcement of his new cabinet confirms, for those who still doubt it, that the biggest winner of the ‘10 days that shook the nation’ is none other than senior minister Azmin Ali.

Of the four senior ministers appointed in lieu of a deputy prime minister, another is senator Mohd Radzi Jidin (education minister), Azmin’s deputy in his last portfolio as economic affairs minister and a political lightweight in the PM’s weak Bersatu party.

The GPS Sarawakian senior minister (Fadillah Yusof – infrastructure development) poses no threat, while the previous head of the opposition in Najib Abdul Razak’s and Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s absence, Ismail Sabri Yaakob (defence), hardly inspires much broad confidence, even within his own factionalised Umno party.

For those in the know, this is a no-brainer as Azmin has been working on his ‘anyone but Anwar’ (ABA) project for years, ever since he fell from grace with Anwar, and secured the Selangor palace’s backing to seize power in Selangor.

United by the ABA agenda, Azmin’s co-conspirator from early on, Hamzah Zainuddin, jumped the Najib ship into Bersatu after GE14. No prize for guessing who got him the menacing home ministry.

Knowing full well that the ABA cause would have limited appeal, he shrewdly packaged it as part of a new Malay-Muslim agenda ostensibly against the DAP, but especially against Anwar, and for PAS, against the ‘renegade’ Amanah as well.

This eventually won over PM8 (eighth prime minister) and secured the defections from Pakatan Harapan and forged the broader coalition which Muhyiddin nominally leads. It is too soon to write the definitive account of what transpired, but it has emerged that Muhyiddin was only recruited to the cause late last year.

Azmin has proved to be a superb strategist as well as master tactician, adjusting pragmatically to changing situations typically to mobilise around issues with much broader appeal.

For years, he was the loyal Anwar protégé, whom Anwar trusted, protected and even promoted over the heads of capable rivals such as Mohamad Ezam Nor and others, who then abandoned Anwar for greener pastures.

His rift with Anwar probably began in 2008 after Azmin successfully captured Selangor for Pakatan Rakyat. Anwar then ordered Azmin to hand over Selangor to ousted Guthries’ CEO Khalid Ibrahim who then amassed unprecedented reserves for the state’s coffers.

Following GE13 in 2013, Anwar bought into former Azmin ally Rafizi Ramli’s Kajang Move plan to take over the Selangor state government from Khalid, who was acting autonomously of the party to which he owed his position.

After Anwar’s accelerated conviction, his loyal wife won the election as surrogate candidate, but was turned down as menteri besar by the Selangor sultan who appointed Azmin instead following a discreet appeal by Azmin.

As Anwar had not consulted his Pakatan Rakyat partner Abdul Hadi Awang, the PAS leader was aggrieved, setting the stage for the subsequent collapse of Pakatan Rakyat after Anwar returned to jail and the DAP recklessly imagined it could influence PAS affairs.

Azmin did nothing to preserve Pakatan Rakyat, but retained PAS in the Selangor state coalition government, establishing his PAS-friendly credentials. As MB, Azmin’s own populist initiatives gained broad support, strengthening his political reputation by spending the surplus Khalid had accumulated.

Waiting in the wings

Increasingly politically confident in his own right, Azmin carefully cultivated Dr Mahathir Mohamad, exploiting the then former PM4’s long-standing antipathy to and suspicions of Anwar despite their reconciliation to unite against Najib and the BN.

Despite then PKR president Wan Azizah Wan Ismail declining repeated overtures following GE14 to become PM instead of Mahathir, Azmin loyalists exceeded Anwar loyalists in the PKR cabinet appointments, reflecting who had Mahathir’s ear.

As the PKR rift went from bad to worse, and opposition to the Harapan successfully mobilised on a Malay-Muslim platform, Harapan’s fortunes in various by-elections continued to decline. Declining Harapan support among non-Malays received scant consideration in this narrative, instead feeding the Malay-Muslim narrative.

Most in the Bersatu leadership have long known that although much older, it was Mahathir who led the party in the run-up to the election, with many complaining that Muhyiddin was ‘missing in action’ on the golf course.

His life-threatening cancer and relaxed demeanour had also ruled him out as a likely conspirator, that is, until late 2019. Throughout, many involved actually believed that Mahathir had blessed the Malay-Muslim project unconditionally, and that Azmin and Muhyiddin both enjoyed his blessing.

Those who were at Muhyiddin’s home after he was appointed as well as others in the new ruling coalition are under few illusions as to who planned and executed it. Once it became clear that Mahathir was not prepared to betray the Harapan coalition, which meant keeping open the prospects for an Anwar succession, he too became inconvenient for ABA.

Unlike most other Malaysian politicians, Azmin is quite happy not to claim credit for everything he does, especially his more heinous acts. He has also been willing to bide his time, knowing that Muhyiddin and Anwar are of the same vintage, and he has many years over them.

However, with so few MPs committed to him personally, Azmin is unlikely to be Brutus to Muhyiddin. Already, Muhyiddin has made clear that the senior ministers will wield considerable authority, especially during his expected absences.

But it will still be a long haul for Azmin to put together, maintain and broaden the coalition he will need to succeed in his ambition. Regardless of his past record, he is now likely to defend the status quo, having turned against the momentum for reform to secure his current perch.

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ZAINAL ZULKARNAIN is an avid political observer. - Mkini