Harapan, PN hunker down in traditional bases in face of perfect storm

 

JOHOR POLLS | Pakatan Harapan and its former ally Bersatu rode on a perfect storm to oust BN in Johor during the 2018 general election but they now find the tables have turned.

With campaigning coming to an end at midnight tonight, Harapan and Bersatu, which now leads Perikatan Nasional (PN), are hunkering down in their traditional bases in the hopes of mitigating BN's gains.

PN had gone on a ceramah (lecture) blitz in the rural heartland across Johor even before campaigning formally began. It also hosted the coalition's launch in the BN's stronghold of Johor Lama in an apparent statement to challenge Umno's dominance.

But in the final days of campaigning, PN top leaders appear to have retreated to their base of northern Johor, particularly in Pagoh where PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin is the MP.

On Tuesday, Muhyiddin was supposed to campaign in Benut, where the incumbent is Johor BN chief Hasni Mohammad, who was also the state menteri besar.

However, that plan was cancelled and he was instead diverted to a ceramah in Pagoh. Yesterday, Muhyiddin also campaigned in neighbouring Muar and PN will host its grand finale ceramah in Pagoh tonight.

PN's line of defence is five seats in northern Johor with Bersatu hunkering down in Bukit Pasir and Bukit Kepong which are under Pagoh and Gambir which Muhyiddin contested in the last general election but is not defending.

The three seats are considered Muhyiddin's sphere of influence and would be a terrible blow to him if they are lost.

PAS meanwhile is holding down Maharani and Simpang Jeram, where the incumbents are Amanah but the Islamist party believes it can wrest back, having held both seats for 10 years until 2018.

Perikatan Nasional chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin

Muhyiddin's sphere of influence

In Muhyiddin's sphere, there are still many who speak fondly about "Abah", a nickname his campaign has adopted to project the image of a caring father figure.

"I will support Muhyiddin even though he is not contesting but I will support his candidates. He has always helped the people, he is not corrupt and he helps the village folks," said 26-year-old Mohd Shahrizat A Razak.

The anti-BN sentiment in Bukit Kepong is also slightly stronger than other constituencies.

"These old parties (BN) are really difficult. They have many corruption cases but people don't see that.

"If people still support them then I don't know what to say. Look at Bossku (Najib Abdul Razak) coming here. If it was anyone else, they would be in prison now," said Sahab Mohamad, a resident of Felda Maokil located in Bukit Kepong.

BN advisor Najib Abdul Razak

Najib, who is the BN advisory board chairperson, has been convicted of money laundering, abuse of power and criminal breach of trust.

But Umno's network still runs deep and many also speak fondly about Muhyiddin's ex-protege Ismail Mohamed who is representing BN in Bukit Kepong. Most in this area see it as a two-horse race between BN and PN.

Muda's Afiqah Zulkifli is also contesting in Bukit Kepong but many complain they do not know her as she is from neighbouring Muar. On Harapan's side, PKR's Naim Jusri is contesting in Gambir and Amanah's Elia Nadira is contesting in Bukit Pasir.

In areas with a larger non-Malay population, the contest is mostly seen to be between BN and Harapan.

PN's mantra about BN's corruption and its role in wrecking key institutions including 1MDB and Felda make it very similar to Harapan, except it can boast of stronger Malay-Muslim credentials.

BN the main opponent

Throughout the campaign, PN and Harapan occasionally took potshots at each other but for the most part, their artillery has been directed at BN.

Meanwhile, Harapan is hunkering down in urban centres, particularly in southern Johor where it is banking that the huge majorities it secured in the last general election will be enough to weather the headwinds.

DAP's Kulai MP Teo Nie Ching, for example, acknowledged her party faces the real risk of losing semi-rural areas such as Yong Peng, Pekan Nanas, Bekok and Paloh.

With national issues and anti-corruption messages not resonating as well in this election compared to 2018, some opposition candidates in such semi-rural areas are banking on their extensive service to carry them through.

An example is DAP's Paloh candidate Sheikh Omar Ali who in just three years has developed a respectable network.

The fact that the Johor government is no longer starving opposition assemblypersons of funding has allowed them to play a similar game to BN by building a deep local network through service, allowing a shift to a more local-centric campaign.

The lack of interest in national corruption does not necessarily mean a majority of voters are now more forgiving of graft but rather voters who do care about such issues aren't likely to vote.

BN, which has long been under siege by such a narrative, was able to put its opponents on the backfoot by calling the election at an opportune time.

Traditionally, the opposition would need to energise their base in order to get the vote out, in contrast to BN which has a strong loyal base that is always very motivated to vote.

Damaging turnout

However, the opposition and Harapan, in particular, is facing a triple whammy of disillusioned voters, electors stuck in Singapore due to strict travel restrictions following the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as a general concern of becoming infected.

This has also forced key Harapan leaders such as PKR president Anwar Ibrahim and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng to change their message, such as now endorsing the withdrawal of Employees Provident Fund savings, a populist position that both leaders have refused to take in the past.

A 50-year-old plumber in Bukit Kepong who gave his name as Tan put the situation aptly: "Many young voters are working in Singapore and won't be coming back.

"Particularly the Chinese, they just come back in February for Chinese New Year and are out of money. Where are they going to find money to come home less than a month later?

"Then in the middle of next month, it's Qing Ming (day to honour the dead) and they have to spend money to come back again," he said.

Both Harapan and PN have warned that a low turnout could be damaging to them.

A good measure for Harapan was last November's Malacca polls which showed Chinese support for the coalition only declined marginally but their low turnout proved costly.

A spoiler is the implementation of the automatic voter registration system and the lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18. The Johor polls will be a litmus test of how motivated these new voters will be.

There may also be surprises in some seats as the current three coalition contest means a small swing in either direction can easily tilt the results.

Correlation and causation

But for the most part, faced with a perfect storm, the goal for Harapan and PN now appear to be to hold down as many constituencies as they can to deny BN a two-thirds majority.

Leaders such as Najib and Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who are facing corruption cases, have campaigned actively in the state polls.

With or without their support, BN was already likely to perform better due to its position of advantage but their active campaigning would allow them to claim credit and further consolidate their position.

This is ahead of the party polls as they could face a challenge from rival Umno factions who prefer party leaders who are facing graft charges to take a back seat.

As for BN's mantra, it has been all about political stability, a narrative Harapan and PN have found necessary to counter, often pointing out that it was Umno leaders who engineered the recent snap polls.

The outcome of tomorrow's polls will provide several new insights - including what a worst-case scenario for the opposition looks like, how viable is Muda, and how significant is the automatic voter registrations.

All of these will guide how the parties adjust their future strategies ahead of the 15th general election. - Mkini