JOHOR POLLS | Think tank Ilham Centre has predicted that BN will pick up at least 35 out of the 56 state seats in the Johor polls, three shy of a supermajority.
It added that Pakatan Harapan and its allies are expected to win comfortably in 10 seats.
However, it said another 11 battleground seats are up in the air, which could go for BN, Harapan or Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Ilham Centre said this was in part due to the anticipated depressed turnout among Chinese voters while PN drew away opposition Malay votes but not enough to win, thus giving an advantage to BN.
"Malay voters reacted positively to BN's narrative of stability compared to national issues of corruption, integrity and leadership brought by PN.
"Malay voters met openly stated that they intend to vote while Chinese voters have shown reservations due to various factors," it said.
The think tank said that among the factors is Covid-19 fears and predicted that Chinese turnout could be as low as 55 percent.
It added that the increase of electors by 33.5 percent due to the automatic voter registration system and the lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18 is also being closely watched, but its impact could be less than expected as many also do not plan to vote.
"We do not rule out that the turnout rate among this segment will also be low and won't have a significant impact that those wanting change has hoped," it said.
The 11 battleground seats it said are Paloh, Endau, Simpang Jeram, Kemelah, Bekok, Tangkak, Yong Peng, Parit Yaani, Puteri Wangsa, Kempas and Kota Iskandar.
The first three, it said, are being strongly influenced by the candidate factor.
The survey was conducted between Feb 18 to March 2, involving 1,391 respondents who are Johor voters.
Campaigning for the Johor polls kicked off on Feb 26. Johoreans will go to the polls tomorrow, March 12. - Mkini
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