To call or not to call

 

Photo: FAIHAN GHANI/The Star

WHEN will GE15 be held is the most popular political question in the country right now.

My answer is that it depends on how long Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob can withstand the pressure from his party. A majority of its leaders and members want the 15th General Election to be held as soon as possible.

During his winding-up speech at the Umno general assembly on March 19, Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri told party members that the decision to dissolve Parliament would be discussed among party’s leaders.

“I listened to all the debates from the delegates at the assembly on GE15. I will raise the matter to be deliberated among the top five [leaders] before discussing the matter at the party’s supreme council meeting,” he told delegates.

Let’s see if we can predict what the majority of Umno’s top five leaders will decide.

In addition to Ismail Sabri, they are president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan and vice presidents Datuk Khaled Nordin and Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid.

Ahmad Zahid, Mohamad Hasan and Khaled want GE15 as soon as possible. The trio has been demanding snap polls since Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s time as prime minister.

The talk is that Mahdzir wants Ismail Sabri to remain in power until Parliament’s term expires in mid-2023. And it looks like the PM himself is still deciding his stand.

So three Umno leaders want an election as soon as possible.

“The top five and Bossku will decide that GE15 should come sooner than expected,” an Umno insider told me, referring to former prime minister and Umno president Datuk Seri Najib Razak by his nickname, “Bossku”.

Arguably, four out of six of the top leaders in Umno want snap polls. It is seemingly a given that this majority decision will have Ismail Sabri seeking the consent of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament soon.

But the situation is not as simple as it seems.

Ismail Sabri is as resilient as bamboo. Umno leadership can pressure him, and he might bend. But like bamboo, he can spring back.

“The Prime Minister plays safe. He doesn’t add fire [to a fiery issue]. He is nice to everybody. He is non-confrontational. He can also withstand pressure,” an intelligence officer covering politics told me.

“The next few weeks will test how much pressure he can withstand. Will he be able to spring back like bamboo?”

Ironically, the PM has the support of most of the Opposition MPs to remain in power until his term ends. Pakatan Harapan and the Ismail Sabri government have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in which one of the points of agreement is that Parliament will not be dissolved before July 31, 2022.

After its stinging defeats in the Melaka, Sarawak and Johor polls, Pakatan is keen to actually extend that deadline – the party dreads facing GE15.

However, after the shock defeat in Parliament on Wednesday of the government’s motion to extend the power to detain suspects for up to 28 days without trial under the Security Offences (Special Measures) Act 2012 (Sosma), some Umno leaders –including those in the Cabinet – are saying that the MOU has automatically ended. But both Ismail Sabri’s government and the Opposition bloc argue that the blocked motion does not nullify the MOU.

If the MOU is still valid, the Prime Minister has the support of 90-odd Pakatan MPs to remain in the top job. But if it isn’t, and he loses that support, his majority might be questioned by rebel MPs within his own party. They could do to Ismail Sabri what they did to Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia president Muhyiddin: 15 Umno MPs withdrew their support from him in August 2021 and when his MOU (similar to the one Ismail Sabri’s government inked) was rejected by the Opposition, Muhyiddin was forced to quit.

If Puteri Umno chief Datuk Zahida Zarik Khan had her way, GE15 would be held as soon as possible. In her policy speech at the opening of the Puteri Umno convention on March 16, Zahida backed Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan’s call for the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament.

“We are now in fourth gear and shifting into fifth gear. Waiting to go into overdrive only. We want to accelerate our car to the finish line. To gain the ultimate win, redeem our lost pride from the 14th General Election [in 2018], do not weaken our spirit to accelerate further,” she said.

“Don’t say that we are young women, or a weak Puteri [wing]. We can be more ‘manly’ than some of the men around here. Our ‘balls’ can be bigger than yours.”

Public anticipation of a snap GE15 is so high that Umno Cabinet ministers having breakfast together in a hotel is enough to raise speculation that Parliament will be dissolved. - Star