Bersih 3.0 vs Umno 66th anniversary: Key deciding factors in GE-13 timing?

It looks like Prime Minister Najib Razak has decided to come down hard on the Bersih 3.0 rally, as he did to last year's Bersih 2.0. Again, it is a bid to show his grip on the nation but this time, the stakes are higher with his Umno party's 66th anniversary celebration due to begin from May 1 to May 13.

Already, thugs accused of being linked to Umno have begun the scare-mongering by beating student protesters, not sparing even the girls with their roughness. This was followed up by the Kuala Lumpur City Hall refusing to grant Bersih 3.0 approval for its April 28 rally at the Dataran Merdeka.

And as expected, the police stood by and watched, doing the minimal to stop the ruffians although the Inspector General of Police has threatened to come down hard on those who broke the law. IGP Ismail Omar's message, it appears, is meant only for those who do not support Umno-BN.

A historic stopping of the clock at Parliament to ram through 8 bills has also stirred worry. What is happening, are there hidden clauses that the BN wants to push through to further strengthen its hand ahead of the 13th general election? Maybe. It might also be that BN wants to clear as much of its in-tray as possible before dissolving Parliament.

The 'dates' are out

The rush to push through the bills led to speculation that Najib might dissolve Parliament on April 23, but with the Dewan Negara due to sit until May 10 to ratify the bills, or these will have to be gazetted again, that rumor has now been safely debunked.

Yet pundits are betting that Parliament will be dissolved anytime between May 16 to May 23 and balloting to take place between June 9 to June 18.

This despite the recent swirl of negative publicity hitting several top Umno leaders, with Rural minister Shafie Apdal the latest to get into hot soup over a sex scandal and Najib himself put on a French court's witness list in the Scorpenes acquisition corruption trial.

Adding to Najib's woes is a master-stroke by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim, who earlier this week riled Umno when he announced that Selangor will not be holding concurrent polls with the BN in GE-13. Not until an audit of the electoral roll is carried out.

"I think Najib is committed to a mid June date. For Selangor, the electoral roll is so badly tampered with they would be crazy to play to Umno's tune. One way or another, they will insist on a clean up," PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

"Of course, this will take wind out of Najib's sails. Even if he wins GE-13, without Selangor in the bag, he is at risk of being toppled at the Umno internal election. As for Penang, Kedah and Kelantan, the respective chief ministers have not decided yet. They may or may not join Selangor."

Room to change his mind

One of the reasons cited for Najib's urgency to hold snap polls has been that the Umno-led government was running short of funds after distributing a recent slew of cash aids to gain favour with voters in GE-13.

Another oft-cited reason is that Najib must 'somehow' hold GE-13 before the Umno internal polls - which must be held by October. That basis for that is that the party warlords (i.e. the division and branch leaders) want to get their hands on the allocations reserved for operating the election machinery. If they waited after the Umno elections, they may get booted out and this loss of largesse would spur them into sabotaging the BN's chances in GE-13.

Yet taking all into consideration, Najib has room to change his mind.

The government can still raise local bonds to stay afloat, bankruptcy is not yet at the door although it is not far. In fact, GE-13 is probably not only the most dirty election ever but it will probably cost the most. Some say thousands of billions are stake and they are referring to control of the government's huge stakes in GLCs such as Telekom and Tenaga.

According to some pundits, this is why Najib has been promising the moon and the sky to some of the most wealthy investors including former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and former finance minister Daim Zainuddin. Najib needs to assure them that their interests will be protected and for their monopoly on the country's wealth to continue, Najib has to pursue right-wing Malay-supremacy policies. Otherwise, he would not be able to maintain the existing snatch-and-grab socio-economic system painstakingly built by Mahathir during his 22-years in power.

As for internal sabotage, it does not really matter. For example, Najib can choose to hold GE-13 in November or even in 2013. By then, those who lost in the Umno polls would already be forgotten entities, or harmless at any rate. What Najib must ensure is that he has the loyalty of those who win in the Umno polls, which is where his list of 'winnable' candidates kicks in. With the power to have the last say on who to field in GE-13, Najib can easily make certain that those who win office in the Umno polls will be 'his men'.

The big 66

What may be driving the pundits' and the Pakatan's belief that GE-13 will be held in June is the extraordinary scale of the Umno's 66th anniversary celebrations. On May 11, he has called on 1 million Umno members to show themselves at a grand function to be held in the Bukit Jalil stadium. Such costly mobilization and the willingness to spend on the event is certainly not a clue to be ignored.

Whether or not Najib announces his decision to dissolve Parliament on that May 11 night really depends on 2 events. One is of course the crowd size in the Bukit Jalil stadium itself. Will 1 million Umno members come and heed his call for a show of support? Given the freebies involved, the answer is likely.

The other event will be the April 28 Bersih 3.0 rally. Will it take off as the organizers have planned. Bersih has announced a total nationwide target crowd-size of 500,000. Pundits are saying, if even 100,000 turn up, then Najib will be shifting his GE-13 target date to September, and from there, he may even shift it further to 2013.

Only a fool ...

To be frank, all the analysis and number crunching may seem convincing. But really, it would be a fool who would believe, and it has to be a moron who would need such elephantine preparations just to make a decision.

Numbers are only meaningful if obtained neutrally. Ask any researcher. With the police already coming down harder each day on Bersih and driving away participants, Najib might succeed in showing Umno that he is still the most popular man in Malaysia. And with all the free transport, lodging, 'makan', door gifts and possibly cash allowances, it would be a slap in the face if Najib failed to get the 1 million Umno members into Bukit Jalil.

But so what? Aren't these numbers 'faked', so to speak. Why should he expect the same trend at the ballot boxes? For example, without the same source of financial support, the Umno-backed Himpun anti-apostasy rally for 1 million Muslims drew only 3,000 to 5,000 supporters. Also without the same finances and amid harsh police control, 50,000 Malaysians still managed to suddenly crop up in the heart of Kuala Lumpur to take part in the July 9 Bersih 2.0 rally.

So, like surveys, numbers are deceptive. Najib might be a vain and foolish leader. But perhaps, he is also banking on this sleight of hand or imagery - that he can command 1 million and Bersih 3.0 only tens of thousands  - to win GE-13.

Current state of support

It is a psy-war but does psychology really work? Only Malaysians can give the answer on the day of the balloting.

For now, the sentiment amongst the Chinese is clear. Come what may, they will stick with Pakatan in GE-13. For the Indians, it is less obvious. In Sabah and Sarawak, the winds of change may be blowing but again, it is hard to gauge if the desire for reform can outstrip the greed for cash that will surely be offered in exchange for their votes.

And lastly, for the Malays - the largest electorate group - how will they vote this time? Will they buy Najib's imagery of strength, will they succumb to the false calls for unity and their own selfishness for supremacy against the other races?

Or will they plumb for fresh air, space and the chance to narrow the wealth gap with the Umnoputras (the select percentile who have benefited from Umno's corrupt rule such as the party bigwigs and their cronies)?

It's still the Malay vote that is undecided

The Malay and the Chinese psyche are quite different. The Chinese tend to be more clear-minded and less emotional. They can and will see through Najib's 1 million Malays 'David Copperfield' illusion. Yet, they are capable of biting back their disgust and voting for the BN - which they did until 2008. However, in 2012 or even 2013, the Chinese can still be counted on to roll the dice once more for the Pakatan because they know this is the best ever opportunity to break the BN's stranglehold.

The Malays are more emotional. A successful 1 million Malays rally will bring a tear to many eyes. Yet by being emotional, the righteousness inherent in the Malay makeup may spur them to reject the out-of-control corruption and madness that is necessarily part and parcel of Umno rule.

Umno is owned by vested interest and to keep these interests in power, the only way is to continue on a path that is illogical, a path of racism, religious bigotry and backwardness totally out of sync with the rest of the world. The Malays know it. The thing is, will they still give Umno one more chance. It's much like giving an addict another shot of heroin just because you feel sorry for him. But should you?

Malaysia Chronicle