So near yet so far

BN would probably garner 4-4.2 million votes against PR’s 4.3-4.5 million. Against that backdrop, NS is a possible sixth state for PR (assuming they hold on to the four they current have and win back Perak). And it is also possible that PR can retain the 82 Parliament seats it won in 2008 and add another 10-20 to this. Hence, BN will still form the next federal government with a majority of 20-30 Parliament seats.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

(The Malaysian Insider) - Victories in a third of the parliamentary seats from Sabah, Sarawak, Johor and Pahang will guarantee that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) takes the next general election, Lim Kit Siang said. 

The DAP parliamentary leader stressed that it was crucial for the federal opposition to make an impact in these states, which have long been considered Umno-Barisan Nasional (BN) strongholds.

“Sabah, Sarawak, Johor and Pahang all make up 99 parliamentary seats. If we can win one-third of each state’s parliamentary seats, we would have approximately 33 seats.”

“If we then add that to the 82 seats we have now, we will have passed our majority mark and (be) on our way to Putrajaya.”

Parliamentary results map of Malaysian general election 2008

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(Sin Chew Daily) - According to the data released earlier by the Election Commission (EC), as of 31 December last year, a total of 12,595,268 Malaysians have registered as qualified voters, 1,673,122 more than the number of qualified voters in the 2008 general election.

If new voters, about 500,000 people, registered in the first quarter of this year were added to the number, it would then be 2.17 million people.

If the Parliament were dissolved in June, the 500,000 new voters registered in the first quarter of this year would have a chance to vote in the 13th general election. Otherwise, they would have to wait until the 14th general election or by-elections.

New voters' voting tendency could undoubtedly determine the winner and the loser. That is why efforts in assisting the registration of new voters have also become a skirmish between the ruling and alternative coalitions before the final battle. 

It is noteworthy that as of March 2012, four million citizens who have reached the age of 21 have not yet registered, 70% of them below the age of 40, with 1.6 million Malays, 1.1 million Chinese and 360,000 Indians.

The figures have revealed two phenomenon that concerned the Chinese community, namely one among every four Chinese reached the age of 21 has not yet registered as a voter and Chinese accounts for 36% of the total young Malaysians who have not been registered as voters, which is far more than the Chinese population ratio. 

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Actually, if you were to look at the summary above, you can see that the variance in popular votes between the ruling Barisan Nasional and the opposition Pakatan Rakyat was not really that wide. The BN-PR votes were almost 50:50. Hence it is not the number of popular votes that was the main problem although getting enough number of votes is certainly important.

With almost 50:50 in popular votes, BN won 140 Parliament seats opposed to PR’s 82. I have spoken about this so many times in the past so I don’t think I want to repeat my analysis. Nevertheless, getting more votes is not the solution if these votes are not spread out but are concentrated in the areas where PR is already strong or in seats it had already won in the last GE.

Look at this chart:

Out of a total of 505 state seats (excluding Sarawak’s 71, which are not contested in the GE), BN won 307 seats opposed to PR’s 197. That gave BN only 110 more state seats over PR. And that also gave BN seven states opposed to PR’s five (not including Sarawak, which is also BN). That was actually not too bad.

However, where PR won it was a tough fight. Where BN won is was a landslide.

For example, in Perlis it was 14:1, Terengganu 24:8, Pahang 37:5, Melaka 23:5, Johor 50:6 and Sabah 59:1 (BN-PR). (In Sarawak last year it was 55:15, BN-PR, with one independent). Only in NS could it be considered close at 21:15.

The states where PR won it was Kedah 21:14 and Perak 31:21 while it was better in Kelantan 39:6, Penang 29:11 and Selangor 36:20 (PR-BN).

Hence, when BN wins it is a big win. When PR wins it is a small win other than Kelantan, Penang and Selangor.

Now, there is not one reason for this. In Kelantan it was the Nik Aziz factor rather than the PAS factor. In Penang it was the Chinese factor and the Chinese disgust for Gerakan-MCA. And in Selangor it was the urbanisation factor and the influence of the Internet.

Of course, the Internet or Chinese factor did help in the others states as well to some extent.

So, what Lim Kit Siang said is very true. Sabah, Sarawak, Johor and Pahang hold the key to Putrajaya, plus Perak and Selangor, of course, which we assume PR has under control. However, Sabah, Sarawak, Johor and Pahang are the states where PR performed very badly in March 2008. Hence, unless the situation has changed since four years ago, then the chances of PR forming the next federal government is pretty slim.

 

Pahang is Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s home state so he is not about to allow that state to fall. If it does then Najib will suffer Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s fate when Penang fell in 2008.

Johor is the only state that MCA has left and if they fail in that state then MCA will be totally wiped out. So they are not about to allow Johor to fall or else BN will be reduced to a Malay party in coalition with the East Malaysian parties.

And of course, we can never predict what will happen in Sabah and Sarawak. But if the recent Sarawak state election (55:15, BN-PR, with one independent) and the current goings-on in East Malaysia are any guide, then the going is not too great in East Malaysia.

In East Malaysia, it is not about ABU (anything but Umno). It is ABS (anything but Semenanjung). And they hold 25% of the total number of Parliament seats. Hence, whether it is Umno, PKR, DAP or PAS, they are all still Semenanjung parties even if they field local candidates.

That problem needs to be addressed.

Pahang and Johor are Kubu Umno (Umno’s fortress). Umno was formed in Johor and the Prime Minister-in-waiting is from Johor so the Johor people are very proud of that fact. And the Prime Minister comes from Pahang so the Pahang people are very proud of that fact as well. It is all based on sentiments and not about good governance.

There are currently about 12.5-13 million registered votes. Four million eligible voters did not register to vote. About 8.5-9 million Malaysians would most likely come out to vote this time around. That means about eight million eligible Malaysian voters would not be voting, almost half the number of eligible voters.

BN would probably garner 4-4.2 million votes against PR’s 4.3-4.5 million. Against that backdrop, NS is a possible sixth state for PR (assuming they hold on to the four they current have and win back Perak). And it is also possible that PR can retain the 82 Parliament seats it won in 2008 and add another 10-20 to this. Hence, BN will still form the next federal government with a majority of 20-30 Parliament seats.

Now, if 20 Parliamentarians from Sabah and Sarawak cross over, that would be another story altogether. That would mean PR would form the next federal government. The bottom line would be, as I have said so many times before, the future rests in the hands of the East Malaysians. But can the East Malaysians deliver PR the next federal government?

Actually, that all depends on PR. If PR can stop treating the East Malaysians like second-class citizens and treat them more like equals, then there is still hope. Or else the East Malaysians would not bother to exchange one colonial master for another. That is the whole crux of the matter.