I think there is a very high probability.
As a first step the American media has already begun to discredit and demonise Duterte. Listen to their language:
Here is another one :
And they begin the story like this : "Rodrigo Duterte is a maddening, murderous maverick.."
If you Google 'President Duterte a madman' you get this :
Granted some of those headlines were from before the Philippine elections. But I see a more nefarious pattern emerging now and over the next weeks and months.
The main reason is because Duterte has begun saying what many Filipinos feel but could not say - they want to be free of the United States. For example they do not want US troops on Philippine soil. Duterte has said so. (Never mind they can kayak over to Sepanggar. We can serve them nasi banyak lemak.)
All that US military presence in the Philippines has not helped bring peace to the Filipinos one bit. In fact the violence in Mindanao is slowly increasing.
The biggest poke-them-in-the-eye irritant from Duterte are his strong overtures to China, the sworn must-die-at-all-costs enemy of the United States (other than Russia of course).
Duterte's about turn on China has really embarassed the United States and made them look like fools. And the Chinese are guffawing behind the curtains in the Forbidden City. And this is the second time this has happened to the United States.
The Western media DOES NOT speak about this but for the past 13 years the United States has been eating serious crow, stir fried by China - when the Chinese and Taiwan quietly signed a series of "peace treaties".
It was not one formal treaty but a series of agreements for the opening of air links between China and Taiwan.
The first "cross straits charter agreement" signed in 2003 established flights between Taiwan and China. There were expansions of this agreement in 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 and so on.
- 2003 - 2005 Chinese New Year charter flights only, for businessmen and families, transit Hong Kong
- 2006 - open to all residents of Taiwan for Chinese New Year only, then also other festivals
- July 2008 - weekend charter flights allowed
- November 2008 - daily charter flights allowed
- 2009 - no more charter flights, regular flights allowed 270 per week
- 2010 - 370 regular flights per week allowed
By signing those air agreements, China and Taiwan were actually recognising each other. Thi s was something that was entirely not in the "strategic interests" of the US.
Hence the serious "independence for Taiwan" demonstrations in Taiwan. Possibly funded by the CIA.
So for the past 13 years there is no more tension in the Straits of Formosa which separates Taiwan from China. There have also been hundreds of billions of US Dollars in investments flowing both ways between China and Taiwan.
It is simply "Happy, Happy, Good, Good Prosperity" all the way now between China and Taiwan. The US feels unwanted.
That is why the US aircraft carriers have had to sail further south now, around the South China Sea, stopping at places like Sepanggar Bay in Sabah. They have less patrolling to do in the Straits of Formosa which now "connects" China and Taiwan. The Straits do not "separate" China from Taiwan anymore.
That is why the US is trying to stir up more trouble in the South China Sea, between China, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia.
And now Duterte has pulled the rug from under the Americans. Duterte says he wants to dialogue with China.
Duterte even said he wants to buy weapons from China. The Chinese replied instantly, "How many you wan? Hot or cold? With soya sauce or black pepper?"
So for the second time, the United States will have to eat crow.
The big danger is the Philippines is not Taiwan. The Philippines is still Third World, like Malaysia.
One CIA operative with one bag of money can cause super havoc in places like the Philippines.
I hope President Duterte takes note. I hope he takes care of his personal security.