Seat clashes will carry on despite Perikatan council, says analyst

 

An analyst says the council can help discussions on government policies, but won’t be able to do much on election seat allocations.

PETALING JAYA: An analyst expects the soon to be formed Perikatan Nasional (PN) presidential council to do little to avert clashes between Umno and PPBM at seat negotiations for the next general election.

Kamarul Zaman Yusoff of Universiti Utara Malaysia said the PN-led council would be able to help facilitate discussions between all parties especially on matters relating to government policies.

“But it will not be able to do much in matters regarding seat allocation. It will be difficult for Barisan Nasional and PN to avoid clashes, especially involving seats that both Umno and PPBM want.

“The most difficult discussions will be for seats won by Umno in 2018, but whose elected representatives switched to PPBM later,” he told FMT.

Kamarul Zaman Yusoff.

Kamarul said the worst-case scenario that could happen if negotiations fail to work out a resolution would be for both parties to go for three-cornered fights in certain seats.

He added the same could also be said for seats eyed by Umno and PAS in Terengganu, saying he expects some friendly contests to be held in certain constituencies.

Umno Youth chief Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki recently said all direct negotiations on seats for the 15th general election would be done with PN and not with PAS.

His statement appeared to sound the death knell for Muafakat Nasional (MN), initially formed by Umno and PAS who later agreed to accept PPBM. Umno, however, is not a member of Perikatan Nasional, in which PAS and PPBM are partners, though it supports the PN government.

Asyraf said the presidential council would prevent any further disputes over the government policies, while allowing Umno and BN to directly voice their concerns to the government.

Umno killing two birds with one stone

Azmi Hassan, formerly of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, agreed with Asyraf, saying the presidential council will be a great help in seat negotiations, acting as a platform for issues between the parties to be thrashed out.

But he told FMT that the possible end to Umno’s MN pact with PAS could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Umno.

Azmi Hassan.

He said using PN as the basis of seat negotiations was like killing two birds with one stone for Umno as it would have leverage over PPBM, adding that Umno’s issue was not with PAS.

“If this is the official stand of Umno, then it’s a very strategic move. Umno will gain more compared to dealing with PAS via MN. Umno’s problem with seat allocation lies with PPBM and not PAS.

“PPBM can’t claim that the seats they contested and won in 2018 was solely based on their own accord since Pakatan Harapan (PH) helped them a lot. Though their president leads PN, when it comes to the three parties’ seat allocation discussion, PPBM is at a disadvantage.

“PAS will not be affected with or without MN but for Umno, in terms of its problem with PPBM, PN is a blessing in disguise compared to Umno depending solely on MN,” he said.

Azmi said the results of the 2018 polls were a clear benchmark to work on for BN and PAS to avoid clashes, adding that PPBM will also avoid PAS’ traditional seats due to the latter’s strong grassroots support.

However, with PPBM and Umno sharing the same political DNA, he said the supporters of both parties basically come from the same group which makes seat negotiations all the harder.

“The easy way out is for Umno to willingly give up seats where they lost heavily in GE14 to PPBM. But, of course, PPBM too will demand safe seats which are most probably Umno’s traditional seats,” he said. - FMT