Focus on serious cases instead of infection numbers, says virologist

 

A virologist says there should be a focus on the Covid-19 positivity rate, ICU case load and the number of serious cases.

GEORGE TOWN: A virologist has called for a switch away from daily Covid-19 case figures and to focus instead on the percentage of positive cases, the number of serious cases, ICU intakes and ICU capacity, and deaths.

It is time for the people to assume that everyone was Covid-positive unless proven otherwise, given the rise of the more infectious Delta strain, said Monash University Malaysia lecturer Dr Vinod RMT Balasubramaniam.

He said it is best to assume that the number of daily infections will be higher than what is reported, as testing rates have dropped from an average of 109,601 tests to 72,307 two weeks ago.

However, the positive rate has been high, at an average of 9% every week, despite the drop in testing, he said. The positivity rate shows how many positive cases are detected out of total tests carried out. The World Health Organization has advised countries to keep the positivity rate below 5%.

Vinod, a senior lecturer at the Jeffrey Cheah School of Medicine and Health Sciences, said the 9% rate meant more testing should be carried out, as it is an indicator that there are more people with Covid-19 yet to be detected.

Dr Vinod RMT Balasubramaniam.

“This means that we are looking at many undetected, unreported cases and what we have now does not tell the whole story. We should take this with a pinch of salt and expect an increase in positive cases, regardless of vaccination rate and move beyond that.

“The virus has assimilated into our community. We should assume that everyone is positive unless proven otherwise. This is the mantra we should adopt now, besides continued testing and vaccinations,” he said.

He said Covid-19 will likely become endemic such as the flu and ought to be handled that way in the future.

“Vaccinating everyone might not stop Covid-19 from circulating at low levels, and we are unlikely to get close to this. The virus is unlikely to give you lifelong immunity, but if you are infected again, the second infection will likely be less serious. Annual shots might be necessary for vulnerable populations,” he said. - FMT