Disclaimer : I found this interview between a Druze intel officer and the Times of Israel. The Intel officer (Colonel) seems to know what he is saying. Sharing in edited point form. You can read this while waiting for the light to change.
- strategy for Syria coordinated by Trump & Russians
- hidden Trump / Putin deal to wrap up Ukraine
- Moscow allowed to preserve foothold in Syria
- US presence in semi-autonomous Kurdish state
Anan Wahabi, a former IDF intel officer from the Druze community, says Syria’s groups could rebuild the country as semi-autonomous cantons, ensuring stability and perhaps cooperation with Israel
9 December 2024
- fall of Syria historic moment for Middle East
- dawn of a new Middle East
- Iran’s foothold in Syria gone
- envision loose confederation of four ethnic substates
- modern nation state in Middle East has failed
- said Anan Wahabi, Research Fellow at Reichman University in Herzliya
- different communities in Syria could not live together
- future of Syria must respect ethnic, religious diversity
- Sunni and Shiite Arabs, Kurds, Christians, Druze, Alawites
- harness vested interests of both Israel and Russia
- Russia maintains air field and major naval base in Syria
- possible normalization between Damascus and Jerusalem.
- best option for Syria is to follow Kurdish model in Iraq
- Iraqi Kurdistan is semi-autonomous inside Iraq since 2005
- Iraqi Kurds built parliamentary democracy, armed forces, formally part of Iraq
- same model of regional autonomy could be applied to Syria
- process could have positive repercussions for the wider region
- plans for economic development in southern Syria backed by Israel
- already discussed in unofficial meetings
- no verifiable reports of those meetings.
The Times of Israel: How did sudden fall of Assad come about?
- Wahabi: Assad gradually lost control of Syria.
- Iran weakened by war in Lebanon and Israeli retaliations
- Iran not prepared to face Donald Trump
- Russians not surprised either
- prior coordination between Russia and rebels to remove Assad
- and rebuild Syria with Russian support
- make it moderate, democratic, normalization with Israel.
Who do you think led this coordination?
- Wahabi : Trump team already laid down plan for Middle East
- plan to be in place before Trump comes into office
- includes Iran retreat from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq
OSTB : Iran has already left Lebanon and Syria.
- strategy for Syria designed, coordinated by Trump with Russians
- hidden deal between Trump and Putin to wrap up Ukraine
- Moscow will be allowed to preserve its foothold in Syria.
- America maintain presence in semi-autonomous Kurdish state in east
Assuming your assessment is correct, how do you envision the future Syria?
- Syria already divided into four cantons
- next step is to make this division official
- central government will remain in Damascus
- Russians retain control over capital, center, coastal area and Homs
- northwest Sunni substate under Turkish influence in Idlib, Aleppo
- already under Turkish control
- northeast a Kurdish canton supported by US
- area very rich in oil and agriculture
- very important for Syrian economy
- far south, around Suweida, a Druze canton
- borders with Israel and Jordan
- train line to Haifa, water desalinization plant built
- would bring great benefits to Jordan
- four new substates, will be part of Syria but autonomous
- modern nation-state has failed in the Middle East
- those diverse communities could not live together
How would Turkey, feel about another Kurdish semi-state along its borders in Syria?
- more important for Ankara to cut [off] the Iranian axis in the region
- Turkey knows Arabs don’t like its interference
- no "Turkish sultan" coming to reoccupy Syria
- there is mistrust of the Turks
- Turks understand their influence limited
- Turks will concentrate on northern Syria
OSTB : No one likes Turkey or Iran. Even I dont like them. They have no friends. They are trouble causers.
What about Iran?
- fall of Syria huge blow for Tehran
- Iran regime jittery
- After collapse of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria logically Iran is next
- next stage of the war
- Iran is under threat
- military action against Iran will lead to political change
- the same will happen in Lebanon
- Hezbollah will integrate into Lebanese state
- Hezbollah will participate in reconstruction of Lebanon
- Hezbollah will abandon terrorism
- Lebanon will be part of normalization with Israel, just like Syria
Are Druze in Syria, who backed Assad, concerned about radical Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
- Yes, Druze concerned about radicals
- But rebels intend to rebuild democratic country
- not replace an authoritarian regime with Islamists
- history of Syria, much more free and liberal than Islamists
- Syria historically diverse country with many ethnic groups
- multiculturalism can be the wealth of Syrian society once again
- and ensure Syria will be democratic and liberal
OSTB : Good luck dealing with the beardos.
My Conclusions :
The moral of this story is that if you do not know how to wipe or wash your own backside then someone else will come and do it for you. They will not like it but no one wants a stinky ass walking around the neighbourhood. But they will not do it for free. Keeping the neighborhood clean requires effort and sacrifice.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
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