The pitfalls of opinion polls: Superficial insights and misleading signals

 

OPINION polls – often derived from limited samples and telephone interviews – tend to fail in providing definitive insights into the popularity of leaders like Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the government’s performance or the state of the economy.

While such polls may suggest trends, they are inherently constrained by their methodology and should not be treated as authoritative indicators of public sentiment or national progress.

Even if these polls indicate rising popularity for Anwar or the government, economic realities often paint a starkly different picture.

Announcements of foreign investments, for example, do not guarantee their materialisation, highlighting a gap between perception and tangible results.

Economic performance remains a significant concern, overshadowing any slight increases in popularity.

The core issues with these surveys include the following:

1. Small sample sizes: Malaysia’s population of 33 million renders a sample size of just over 1,500 insufficient to draw meaningful conclusions. Extrapolating broader trends from such limited data risks oversimplification.
2. Question design and response biases: The framing of survey questions and how responses are recorded introduce subjectivity, undermining the reliability of the findings.
3. Superficial understanding: Polls provide only a surface-level snapshot of public opinion, neglecting the complexity of underlying issues.
4. False signals to politicians: These surveys can mislead politicians, offering them an inflated sense of popularity or policy success. Such misinterpretations can result in complacency or misguided strategies.
5. Potential for misdirection: When survey results are publicised without clarifying their limitations, they risk shaping public perception based on incomplete or skewed data.

Too simplistic to be true

Opinion polls might have value as reference points but they are no substitute for substantive and critical discussions about national issues.

Policymakers, analysts and the public must prioritise comprehensive analyses and debates over simplistic metrics of popularity.

Without this, the reliance on flawed surveys may lead to poor governance and misguided priorities.

Opinion polling centres such as the Merdeka Centre bear a responsibility to disclose their limitations upfront, thus ensuring that their findings are interpreted with caution.

Only through rigorous, transparent and meaningful engagement with issues can a true understanding of the country’s state of affairs be achieved.

Former DAP stalwart and Penang chief minister II Prof Ramasamy Palanisamy is chairman of the United Rights of Malaysian Party (Urimai) interim council.

The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of  MMKtT.

- Focus Malaysia.