Ayer Kuning good seat to contest, but analysts predict PSM-Muda wipeout

 

PSM is looking to contest the Ayer Kuning state seat in Perak with its sizeable Indian community which represents 14% of the electorate, says analyst Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid. (Facebook pic)

PETALING JAYA: 

Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) is likely to fare poorly if it contests in the coming Ayer Kuning by-election despite having Muda’s backing and the presence of a good electoral mix in the constituency, according to analysts.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali says PSM and Muda, which first formed a pact at the six state polls two years ago, were eyeing the Perak state seat as it was a mixed constituency with non-Malay voters making up about 40% of the electorate.

“So it is perceived as a conducive seat to contest for. But I’m confident that PSM-Muda would not be able to offer much of a challenge.

“I do not expect them to get more than 1,000 votes,” he told FMT, adding that West Malaysian voters are expected to restrict their support to one of the three grand coalitions currently dominating the political landscape — Pakatan Harapan, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional.

Mazlan Ali.

Mazlan said both Muda and PSM would remain largely irrelevant unless they partnered one of these three coalitions.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia expects the aspiring PSM candidate to lose his deposit, saying neither the party nor Muda have any conventional sources of support in the constituency.

Fauzi believes PSM is eyeing the seat because of the sizeable Indian community present in Ayer Kuning.

“It won’t be nice to assume that a socialist party like PSM is also influenced by the racial demographics of the constituencies it chooses to contest in.

“But it will be difficult for them to deny that they’re mainly eyeing the ethnic Indian electorate which stands at around 14%,” he said, adding that Muda, on the other hand, was “too idealistic for Malaysia”.

On Saturday, PSM’s deputy chief S Arutchelvan announced that the party intends to field a candidate in the April 26 by-election to offer Ayer Kuning voters an alternative to the unity government and opposition. Muda later said it would support PSM’s campaign.

An Umno stronghold, the state seat fell vacant following the death of Ishsam Shahruddin, 58, on Feb 22. Ishsam won the seat in the 2022 general election with a majority of 2,213 votes in a five-cornered contest.

PSM also contested for the seat in 2022, but its candidate KS Bawani only managed to get 586 votes.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid.

Fauzi said it was not a bad idea for PSM and Muda to use the by-election to test the viability of a future general election partnership, particularly given Ayer Kuning’s mixed demographic.

However, he said both parties should look to contest more urban seats in the future, as there would be a higher percentage of disenchanted voters regardless of ethnicity or religion, due to the higher cost of living pressures, among others.

“Socialist policies have greater appeal in areas with large concentrations of the urban poor,” he said.

Mazlan, however, cast doubt on Muda and PSM’s ability to perform better in urban seats. He said both parties contested for urban seats during the 2023 six state polls, but all candidates lost their deposits.

“PSM and Muda are parties that have zero potential or chance of dominating Malaysian politics, although they’re said to be urban-based parties. While they’re better suited for urban seats, even there it seems they lack support.” - FMT