Will ‘unstoppable’ China do a Venezuela-style raid on Taiwan?

 

IF the United States can attack Venezuela, why can’t China also invade Taiwan? If the US can capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, why can’t China also capture Taiwan President Lai Ching-te?

The nearest China came to attacking Taiwan was a live military exercise off the coast of the island. But the two-day drill from Dec 29 to 30 code-named Justice Mission 2025 was just a warning to the island state not to walk the path of independence.

Was Taipei trembling with fear when Chinese warships surrounded the island? No. Instead, Lai defiantly stood up to the Chinese threat when he boldly proclaimed his country will defend democracy.

In fact, Taiwan’s armed forces have drawn up contingency plans to protect the head of state (Lai) should Chinese President Xi Jinping give the go-ahead, (US President) Donald Trump-style, to seize Lai.

Taiwan has stayed afloat for 70 years and during all that time its people had worked hard to transform their largely agriculture-based economy into a global economic powerhouse.

Today, it is one of the world’s largest trading nations, recognised mostly for its high-tech industries. The “Taiwan Miracle” has indeed produced a state that it is now able to stand tall in the comity of nations.

Although diplomatically isolated, Taiwan is unlikely to be erased from the map of the world because its people are ready to defend their way of life rooted in democracy.

(Image: iStock)

But Sifu Beijing (martial arts master) will not let this Asian Tiger continue to roar in defiance. Perhaps, it is envious of its remarkable success and wants to gobble up the island state and erase its statehood.

It won’t be a walk in the park if China decides to launch a “decapitation strike” because Taiwan is no Hong Kong or Macao or a pushover. The island state is fully armed to the teeth and could be a match to China’s mighty People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Equipped with sophisticated weapons supplied by the US, Taiwan will be a battleground to test the superiority of US high-tech weapons against that of China.

Taiwan’s Defence Ministry has reportedly pointed out that Venezuela’s weapons purchased from China and Russia “proved to be inferior to US armament” when American troops stormed Caracas and captured Maduro and his wife.

Hence, the question arises: will China dare to launch an invasion, Venezuela-style, if there is a strong possibility that Taiwan can repel the PLA juggernaut decisively?

Won’t it be a shameful defeat for China if its vaunted sophisticated weapons turned out to be ineffective?

A bigger question will be: will the US promptly come to the defence of Taiwan? Is Washington prepared to sacrifice thousands of American lives on the shores of Taiwan?

So far, there are no indications that the US will backtrack on its commitment to protect the island nation. Although there is no longer any defence treaty with Taipei, the two nations have a “security partnership” arrangement under which the US has been selling defensive arms to Taipei.

The US is under no obligation to intervene militarily but it might reverse course in the event China resorts to using nuclear weapons. The American military shield can be said to be an effective deterrence against the military ambition of Beijing.

Over the years, Taiwan has emphatically rebuffed Beijing’s attempts at peaceful reunification in favour of self-governance. Still, the mainland giant sees reunification as “unstoppable” which means it will achieve its long-sought goal by force of arms if need be.

If you walk down the streets of Taipei, you will see its citizens going about their daily life nonchalantly despite the recent threat from their colossal neighbour. They have become immune to all this bellicose noise emanating from across the Taiwan Strait.

But should real war break out, the people of Taiwan, especially the youths who have undergone compulsory military training, will instantly turn into warriors prepared to defend their homeland and all the cherished values of democracy.

In the final analysis, a victory for China will spell the extinction of Taiwan but a military triumph for Taiwan will pave the way for the declaration of a truly independent island state.

And that will be unstoppable.

Phlip Rodrigues is a retired journalist.

The views expressed are solely of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of  MMKtT.

- Focus Malaysia.