‘PAS will do well in its strongholds, but not nationally’

PETALING JAYA: A political analyst has forecast that PAS will not be able to win significantly more seats countrywide in the 14th general election (GE14) beyond the Malay-majority ones it has traditionally held, especially in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, a professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia, said the Islamist party’s stronghold was in the east coast states where over 80% of the people are Malay-Muslim.

As such, it would be a stretch for the party to relate to voters in other more plural states.

“For PAS, the grassroots’ strength has always been in the Malay belt along the northern and north-eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia, especially the rural areas,” he said.

“The party portrays the Islamic way which serves to attract the Malays in these areas. This is their game since the beginning and so it would be hard to contest at the national level,” he told FMT.

PAS has ruled over Kelantan since 1990, having also governed the state from 1959 to 1977, and Terengganu from 1959 to 1962 and 1999 to 2004.

It also headed the Pakatan Rakyat state government in Kedah from 2008 to 2013.

During the last general election in May 2013, the party secured parliamentary seats in six states. It won nine seats in Kelantan, four in Terengganu, four in Selangor, two in Perak, and one each in Kedah and Pahang.

Fauzi said to succeed nationally, one has to take into account the importance of Malaysia’s plural society.

He said any party which aspired to govern at the federal level, and not just at the state level, had to be part of a coalition that represented the multiracial electorate.

“If you are not in a coalition containing people of other races, then you have to confine yourself to your stronghold,” he said. “Electoral breakthroughs cannot be done unilaterally.

“If PAS intends to extend its streak beyond the Malay belt, then some form of political agreement has to be reached,” he added.

Fauzi said it was advisable for PAS to gather informed opinions from research-based NGOs or think tanks if it wanted to make a bigger move on other states that were not part of its stronghold.

He questioned if the party had conducted the necessary professional research, which is different from statements of conjecture highlighted over the media.

“If PAS does not pursue research-based data to provide that information, it would be difficult.”

He added that PAS should also portray its leaders as credible thinkers who are able to translate their Islamic political vision into benign reality that appeals to citizens of all religions and races. -FMT