Bangsa Moro Autonomy, Mindanao Will Burn, Sabah Be Prepared

Autonomy for troubled Muslim regions

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Duterte-right-to-bet-on-autonomy-for-troubled-Muslim-regions

July 29 MILF meeting to evaluate new law for Moro 

Duterte's historic decision, radically transform Mindanao

Duterte convinced  Congress 

including MILF leadership

autonomy only way to end conflict 

late July law paves way for Muslim-majority regional entity 

new political administration for Muslim provinces 

Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) covers 10m Moro

10% of total national population

tens of thousands of rebels to disarm, demobilize 

reintegration of insurgents into state security apparatus

daunting challenges

deep tribal rivalries among Moro 

toxic rivalries among rebels

no basic infrastructure, decades of conflict 

enduring appeal of extremism, terrorism in Mindanao 

creation of Bangsamoro core of 2014 peace agreement 

between Philippines and  Moro Islamic Liberation Front 

BOL previously known as Bangsamoro Basic Law

widespread opposition from Filipino Christians

inflamed by  Mamasapano Massacre 2015

MILF killed dozens of Philippine Police 

Bangsamoro supplant Autonomous Region Muslim Mindanao 

MILF's military disbanded 

members reintegrated into Bangsamoro institutions

MILF leadership will transform into Moro ruling class

within framework of Philippine constitution

Moro to determine legislations, administrative regimes

including Sharia courts for dispensation of justice

greater fiscal autonomy, 75-25 revenue sharing 

Bangsamoro remit only 1/4 local taxes to govt 

Other provinces remit as much as 60%

govt allocate 5% revenues, US$1b to Bangsamoro

'fiscal transfer' to strengthen Bangsamoro institutions 

problems abound

myriad ethnic-tribal rivalries

split within Moro movement in past century

Tausug-Maguindanao rivalry 

ARMM leadership  Tausug ethnic 

Tausug core leadership of MNLF

''Maguindanao MILF's'' parent organization 

ARMM to join larger Bangsamoro 

MILF position for dominance

Cotabato, Lanao del Norte, may opt out of Bangsamoro

rivalries with MILF leadership 

preserve status quo

many doubt MILF capable of inclusive government

Moro elite fear greater mayhem and insecurity 

once Muslim-majority regions left to own devices 

ISIS groups branded MILF apostates

sold out to Christian government

endemic poverty, unemployment

terrorists, extremists exploit uncertainty to sow discord

incite violence, more radical 

Filipino public largely 'neutral' on Bangsamoro 

reflecting skepticism over such innovation

challenge constitutionality of BOL at Supreme Court 

Duterte to mediate among rival Moro groups

convince Filipinos to support Bangsamoro 

allocate sufficient resources to facilitate transition

My comments :  I cannot fathom the real thinking behind this proposal. After becoming president, Duterte said he would bring peace to Mindanao in six months (or something like that). It is now three years already. 

The ISIS-Maute attack on Marawi City last year was a serious quake. The city was taken over by the ISIS-Maute terrorists for FIVE MONTHS (23 May - 23 October). 

There is much intrigue behind that episode. 

Was the attack deliberately allowed to drag on for so long?

The problems in Mindanao are compounded by the fact that no single group can claim to represent all the 10 million MOROs. 

There are so many ethnic identities among the Muslim Moros.

1. Maranao   -    Lanao del Sur and Lanao de Norte

2. Maguindanao  -  Sultan Kudarat, North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Maguindanao and Sarangani

3. Tausug   -      Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan and Zamboanga provinces

4. Sama       -    Tawi-Tawi

5. Yakan      -    Basilan

6. Sangil   -      South Cotabato and Sarangani

7. Badjao (Sama Dilaut)   -  Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Basilan

8. Kalibugan  -    Zamboanga provinces

9. Jama Mapun  -   Tawi-Tawi

10. Iranun    -    Lanao, Maguindanao and Cotabato provinces

11. Kalagan   -    Davao provinces

There are three main Muslim separatists - Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Abu Sayyaf. 

MILF and Abu Sayyaf are breakaway factions of MNLF.

There is also another breakaway Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), also known as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM). These are breakaways from the MILF. Not Misuari's people.

Nur Misuari founded MNLF in 1971 for independent Moro nation.

In 1986, President Corazon Aquino personally met Misuari.

1989, set up the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

ARMM - Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan.

MNLF peace agreement in 1996.

Misuari elected ARMM governor 1996. 

Ended in violence in November 2001

He led a failed uprising.  

Misuari jailed, released in 2008.

Abu Sayyaf - has ties with Misuari.

The latest initiative by President Duterte is with the MILF. Not the MNLF, which has become quite toothless. Or so we think.

• There is no way the MILF is going to administer their own territory. 
• There is no way they are going to collect local taxes and then "share it" 75:25 with Manila. Is this a joke?
• There is no way they are going to responsibly handle US$1 BILLION annualy for the benefit of all 10 million Moros. 

These things are just not going to happen.

• Moro to determine legislations, administrative regimes
• including Sharia courts for dispensation of justice

Even without shariah courts ALL Islamic countries are already in the hell fire.  There is NO SUCH THING as a standardised shariah system anywhere in the universe.  Now the Moros are also going to jump from the frying pan straight into the hell fire. 

Oh my Allah ! Nauzubillah !

Then they want to integrate the MILF rebels into the State security apparatus? You mean like they wear Philippine Police and Army uniforms? 

They will become target practise for Misuari's MNLF and the Abu Sayyaf.  A major civil war is going to break out in Mindanao. 

Sabah and ESSCOM better be placed on high alert. DEFCON 1 (Defence Readiness Condition 1 - maximum threat).

Conclusion : I have said before that the issue in Mindanao is money. There are plenty of economic opportunities but the Moros are neither highly literate nor have much capital. Manila also does not have money to spare.

Since Sabah is so interlinked with Mindanao I have suggested that Malaysia invest in business and trade in Mindanao. Create jobs abd trade opportunities for them.

About a couple of weeks back I met up with an ex journo who had spent plenty of time among the Moros and personally knew Jamalul Kiram. (Recall that guy? Lahad Datu?) 

He said that Najib's gomen did channel funds for investment into Mindanao but the Sabah UMNO boys took it all for their own personal gain. The greedy pirates hijacked my suggestion for their own benefit. End of Mindanao aid. 

I believe we have to restart the process. Please leave the ostard wal retards out of this. No using money to build suraus and madrassahs. Instead build tar roads in their villages, build markets, simple fish landing jetties, cold rooms, invest in local tourist resorts, scuba training for locals etc. Bring their kids over to special boarding schools for an English language education. It will pay off. Tell them Filipino first.  Moro second.