For more than 14 years, Mohamad Hasan has had a firm grip on Rantau. All his victories in this seat have been nothing less than landslides, with his support level never going below 65 percent of the total votes cast.
Having led Umno to victory as the party’s acting president in two previous by-elections, the expectation is that this former Negeri Sembilan menteri besar is formidable to easily pick up his hometown in tomorrow’s by-election to make it a perfect hattrick.
However, Mohamad no longer appears as invincible as he once was. While still formidable, the Rantau by-election will be his first serious test against Pakatan Harapan, which has the power of incumbency.
This by-election is a four-cornered contest, but it is essentially a two-horse race between Mohamad and Pakatan Harapan’s Dr S Steram. The other two are independent candidates R Malar and Mohd Nor Yassin.
Though BN and Harapan have boasted about respectable turnouts at their ceramah events, many in the audience – often clad in party colours or uniforms – are not voters in Rantau but supporters who have been mobilised nationwide to help in the by-election campaign.
Unlike the Cameron Highlands and Semenyih by-elections, where BN’s imminent victory was apparent towards the final stretch of campaigning, voter sentiment in Rantau still appears murky on the eve of polling day.
Many Rantau voters Malaysiakini spoke to were unchanged in their entrenched support for either BN or Harapan. If a large part of these voters maintains the status quo, it could become a close contest.
Rantau did not vote at the state level during the last general election as Mohamad received a walkover. However, they did vote at the parliamentary level, which provides some insight into their preferred choice in the 2018 general election.
Based on how the Rantau residents voted at the parliamentary level, about 48.01 percent chose Harapan while 45.6 percent backed BN. PAS received a mere 4.54 percent of the votes cast.
This does not necessarily mean that Mohamad would have lost if there was a contest for the Rantau state seat in the 14th general election, as he is well-liked by the locals and has personal appeal.
‘Mohamad’s personal touch’
Born and raised in Rantau, Mohamad is a familiar face to most voters there, who know him as Tok Mat and cherish his contributions.
“He has helped the Indian community a lot. Schools, temples and education for our children, he helps every one of every race,” K Murugan, a 53-year-old mechanic told Malaysiakini when met in Taman Kelab Tuanku, a polling district where BN won in the last general election at the parliamentary level.
Malay voters in rural areas are especially fond of how Mohamad would make time to attend celebrations or funerals.
In Kampung Sega, which has the highest concentration of BN voters in Rantau, local Harapan chief coordinator Azmi Said admitted the majority there would still vote for BN.
“They are still loyal to Tok Mat and Umno. He always attends kenduri or events. He doesn’t observe protocol when he enters the kampung.
“He enters kitchens and eats food (with the villagers) or packs food as he pleases. That is his advantage,” Azmi, who is also the Kampung Sega Hilir village committee chief said.
He added that his own family still supports BN, even though he has been a PKR man for 18 years.
On the campaign trail, Mohamad often ventures out on his own to visit voters in the late afternoon, without informing the media or his own officers.
In comparison, Streram – who has lived in Rantau for more than three years, is described by detractors as an awkward character.
“We had a drink with him once. We tried (to get to know him), but we couldn’t understand what he was saying,” said Felda Sendayan voter Saiful Sarani. The 37-year-old is squarely behind Mohamad.
Another BN supporter from Kampung Sega Hulu, Mohd Amin Hashim, told of his distaste for Streram’s interactions with a local flood victim.
“Streram was brought to see a flood victim in the village once. They already had their belongings destroyed, but all Streram did was look.
“(He asked) ‘How bad was the flood’ and we showed him the water that had risen to about three feet, and then he left!” Mohd Amin said.
His wife, Intan, chimed in and said Streram “was not responsive”. Mohd Amin said the flood victim eventually got aid from Mohamad.
Streram, an anesthesiologist, appears to lack charisma and can sound monotonous when speaking in English and Bahasa Malaysia.
‘Streram’s appeal to Indian voters’
Harapan’s campaign has also put less emphasis on Streram as a person and instead focused on promoting on the ruling coalition’s top leaders, including PKR president Anwar Ibrahim, who is the MP for Port Dickson, which is adjacent to Rembau. Rantau is a state seat within the Rembau parliamentary seat.
However, Streram speaks Tamil fluently and fares better with Indian voters, who make up 27 percent of the voters in Rantau.
Of the 505 state seats nationwide, Rantau has the eighth largest Indian population, making this community an important factor in determining the outcome of the by-election.
While many elderly Indian voters are still loyal to BN, the young have been shifting towards the new ruling coalition.
“Many of the youths here are with Harapan,” said 42-year-old lorry driver K Aramugan when met at Taman Angsamas.
Even if Harapan can increase its Indian support, it must contend with the traditional trend of lower turnout in a by-election among Chinese voters, which have to date, given strong support to the coalition.
Furthermore, while PAS may have a very weak presence in Negeri Sembilan, the Islamist party’s support for BN could still make a difference in a close fight.
Considering these factors, Harapan not only must defend its Malay support but also seek to increase them, even marginally, if it is to stand a realistic chance against Mohamad.
The wildcard
A wildcard that could influence the election’s outcome is a small but notable number of Umno members who have defected to PKR, Bersatu, or Amanah.
Taman Angsamas Bersatu branch leader Rusmi Abdul Rahman claimed to have registered 100 new members after the general election. He is confident that Harapan can increase its majority in the Angsamas polling district from 22 to more than 100.
Both PKR and Bersatu have also staged events to accept membership forms on the campaign trail.
One PKR convert put it bluntly that it is about supporting the government of the day.
“Before the general election we supported BN, but now the government has changed so we must support the government,” Hashim Dollah, 65, said when met in Kampung Sri Lalang last week. Hashim’s wife, Kamisah Mat Shah, is now the Ulu Lalang PKR branch chief.
Harapan leaders appear cognisant of such sentiments, as they repeatedly stress during ceramah sessions that Mohamad, as an opposition leader, cannot do anything for the people of Rantau, whereas Streram would have the ear of the government.
However, it is yet unclear how many of these new defectors would actually vote for Harapan on April 13.
Angsamas Bersatu branch leader Rusmi Abdul Rahman said it is not unusual for the new PKR or Bersatu members to still be card-carrying Umno members.
Malays voters from Rantau also tend to shy away from the limelight during the Harapan ceramah programmes, choosing to lurk around the corners. One such BN-turned Harapan supporter was Mohd Daud Samek, who was met during a ceramah at Taman Angsamas.
“Many of my neighbours were strong BN supporters but when the government changed, the Malays don’t want to make it obvious as they would feel embarrassed if they encounter old leaders (from the previous government) while they are leaning towards PKR,” he said.
However, Harapan must also contend with some voters who are disillusioned at the ruling coalition’s pace of implementing its general election pledges.
Overcoming voter disillusionment
“If Harapan wins here in Rantau, it must deliver what it promised to the people as quickly as possible,” said local voter S Rajkumar, who hails from Bandar Ekar.
“I know youths who voted for Harapan last year, but now support BN again because the PTPTN promise was not fulfilled,” Rajkumar added.
Harapan had promised to allow borrowers earning less than RM4,000 a month to defer National Higher Education Fund (PTPTN) loan repayments – within 100 days of coming to power – but is still working on a suitable scheme.
The Rantau seat fell vacant after the Federal Court upheld a decision to void Mohamad’s walkover win last year.
This stemmed from the returning officer’s move to block Streram from filing his nomination papers in the 2018 general election.
Mohamad will go into the polls tomorrow in a formidable position – but it won’t be a walk in the park like it used to be – for the three-term assemblyperson. -MKINI
In Malaysia Baharu, Rantau not necessarily BN’s ‘fixed deposit’
KUALA LUMPUR — While some political observers have already written off the Rantau by-election as a shoo-in for Umno’s Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, the state constituency’s sizeable Indian minority could very well make or break this contest.
Mohamad, better known as Tok Mat, is expected to win the majority of Malay votes which comprise up to 55.51 per cent or 11,615 of total voters (20,926 registered voters). He will need about 10 per cent or more from the non-Malay voters to secure a convincing win.
In Rantau, the Indian community accounts for approximately 26 per cent (5,441) of the total registered voters, while the Chinese make up 18.46 per cent or 3,863 voters.
Pakatan Harapan (PH) is aware of this, which is why Port Dickson MP and prime minister-in-waiting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has been engaging with Indian voters on a daily basis, attending dinners with community leaders and even performing in front of them with a MG Ramachandran (MGR) lookalike.
At the same time, the PKR president has gone to great lengths to convince voters why he chose Dr S. Streram for the seat, and not a Malay candidate.
But with less than 24 hours left until polling day, have Mohamad and Dr Streram convinced the Indian community on who to vote for?
Voters from the community here are keeping their cards close to their chest. While some feel that having Mohamad as their elected representative would help given his experience and reputation as former Negri Sembilan MB, others believe that having a lawmaker from PH would help the constituency.
In Kampung Ekar, opposite the now abandoned PR1MA housing construction site in Rantau, Deviga and her family declare themselves proud Barisan Nasional (BN) supporters. They display that pride with banners and posters strewn across their front porch.
“Since I was young it’s always been BN,” said Deviga when met outside her home.
“My grandfather, grandmother, mom, dad and now me and my kids have all only known BN and we are sticking with it. Besides who is Dr Streram anyway? We’ve met him when he came and made his rounds here but I feel no affinity to vote for him nor his party as we do not have faith in him,” she told Malay Mail.
For another Kampung Ekar resident, Valiammah Ragu, Mohamad’s personal touch will never be forgotten despite the scandals surrounding him.
“My husband needed RM2,500 for an operation to get his leg amputated,” said Valiammah when met.
“I sent the letters of request for help to the government offices and one day they summoned us. I was surprised to meet Mohamad himself in his office and since my Bahasa isn’t very good I conversed in Tamil.
“Mohamad listened to me through a translator and soon after the meeting his personal assistant delivered the cheque. That personal touch I will never forget,” added the 61-year-old.
It’s stories like this that have made a lasting impression on some Indians in the community as word of mouth carries a lot of weight in smaller kampungs and rural townships.
Mohamad, who was mentri besar from 2004 to 2018, has done a lot for the state and his face is the only one residents have seen these past years.
It has added to his charm and aura as a people person, someone who knows how to get things done and has the ability to handle the state office.
But Valiammah’s eight other family members are now all PH supporters.
When asked why they were voting for PH she said: “You’d have to ask them. It’s been a huge point of contention in this house. We’re always arguing about it and I’m done trying to convince them otherwise.
“In the end I just tell them to get lost and do whatever they want,” she said with a laugh.
When asked if other Indians in the area feel that Mohamad is still better for the people, Valiammah said it is up to each individual as everyone’s needs are different.
“If someone helps me and my family, as a God-fearing Hindu, I cannot forget that kindness, hence it’s easy for me to decide. For others it isn’t as easy as they feel BN has been in power too long and a change is warranted.”
For voters in Kampung Kuala Sawah, a 20-minute drive away from Kampung Ekar ― one of the residential areas with significant Indian population ― PH may just need more time to prove themselves.
“Streram deserves at least one term (five years) to prove himself and if people think the Indian votes don’t count, they’re wrong,” said Sivakumari Arumugam, a former staff at Mawar Medical Centre.
“In the past I’ve always voted for the Opposition as I felt there needed to be a strong voice in Parliament to fight the then ruling party.
“Now that the former Opposition is the ruling government, I want to see them take their time and implement the changes that we need.”
Sivakumari felt Mohamad’s added responsibility as acting Umno president and the scandals surrounding its former president, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, will take away his attention from Rantau.
“He may be focusing on matters in Kuala Lumpur more than here so I feel PH can take over and do good for Rantau.
“In fact many Indians are also thinking about voting Opposition now that they have a second chance to vote.
“They may not tell anyone as they are afraid people will judge them but the feeling is the same. They want to see who can do the best for the community and that’s it.”
The by-election has been necessitated by the Federal Court’s dismissal of an appeal filed by Mohamad to set aside the November 16 Seremban Election Court decision declaring his unopposed victory in the 14th general election (GE14) null and void.
In GE14, Mohamad was declared the winner of the seat for BN after Dr Streram, the potential PH candidate, was prohibited from entering the nomination centre to submit his nomination papers because he did not have a pass issued by the EC.
Dr Streram has said in the past that although some of the Malay voters were “silent” over their support, he was confident they would cast their vote for PH.
The anaesthetist said he needs the majority of the non-Malay votes and around 15 to 20 per cent of the Malays to vote his way to wrest the seat from Mohamad.
Many believe this to be impossible but one resident, Rajeswari Ponnusamy, feels that many voters, especially the Malays, are keeping their cards close to their chest and want to vote for PH.
“Secretly there are many Malays who are prepared to vote for Dr Streram. They’re just afraid to say it out loud,” said Rajeswari when met at her home.
“When I go to the market and talk to the Malays there are many are planning to vote for PH in the elections.
“The Malays are also fed up with the corruption and the ignorance of many of their peers and since it’s their right to vote and it’s nobody’s business who they vote for they’re staying mum about it.”
Rajeswari said many Malays do not want to be judged and vilified for not backing someone of similar race to them, so they choose to stay silent until they cast their votes.
“I believe Dr Streram still has a chance to pull off a win and is a good candidate. If not, why would PH appoint him as their representative?” Rajeswari asked.
“You won’t be able to get the truth from many Malay voters being a news man but for me the underlying sentiment is that there will be quite a sum who will vote for PH on Saturday,” she added.
The Rantau state constituency in Negri Sembilan, spread over 15,960.74 hectares, has 20,926 registered electors comprising 20,804 ordinary voters, 118 early voters and four absentee voters.
It is a four-cornered contest in Rantau, involving Dr Streram, Mohamad and independent candidates R. Malarvizhi and Mohd Nor Yasin. – MALAY MAIL
MKINI / MALAY MAIL
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