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Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Some Good News Some Not So Good, DG of Health Not Telling Everything, Some Points On Loan Moratorium

Just like this Whatsapp message above says  the frontline doctors and nurses in our hospitals ARE NOT BEING tested!!  


This is very, very irresponsible and also very dangerous. Firstly you are putting the lives of our doctors and nurses at unnecessary risk. Secondly if the doctors and nurses are not tested (and repeat tested again and again) how do you know that they already do not have the virus? And since the doctors and nurses are treating patients, they can be spreading the virus INSIDE THE HOSPITAL and when they go home.

1.  The doctors from China have arrived. 

They are fired up and seem ready to go. Here is a spirited statement by one of these Chinese doctors. 



We must take full advantage of their expertise and their advice.  They have overcome the Corona Virus. Let us all work for the best.

2.  India develops Corona Virus test kits in record time




The Indians have made a test kit in record time.  I hope they will produce this kit in the millions because with a population of 1.4 billion people they will need these test kits.

The other good news from India is that they have gone into a 21 day lockdown. If they can enforce the lockdown it will help India control the spread of the virus.

As I said the other day we import a lot of food from India including onions, potatos, pulses (kacang) etc.  I hope the disruptions to the food supply chains are minimal. We have to think outsyed the box to manage the supply chains during these times. The important thing is food supplies must not be compromised. 

3.  World scrubbing down and disinfecting.

This video shows the world is scrubbing down and disinfecting. Are we doing any of these in Malaysia? This has to be done in a hurry. The local councils, local governments have to do this quickly. The Federal government should assist in money, materials and maybe manpower. This is an emergency.





4. The DG of Health is not telling the full story. There is a WhatsApp message that is going viral which says that there is little Covid testing going on, especially testing of frontline doctors and nurses who are treating Covid 19 cases. Here is part of the WhatsApp message :


MALAYSIA MUST RAMP-UP SARS-COV-2 TESTING

Dato’ Dr Musa Mohd Nordin, Paediatrician
Datuk Dr Zulkifli Ismail, Paediatrician

I received an SOS message from an old friend yesterday
 

She wrote, “My son in law, a doctor, exposed to Covid-19 positive colleague 
but the head of department said, no need to test. 
Now he is having URTI (Upper Respiratory Tract Infection)


I replied, Get him tested ASAP at DSH, results same day. 


current policy of MOH is to only run tests on the Persons Under Investigation (PUI)
Even the PUI were not tested but were counseled, told to self-isolate for 14 days
This is probably due to shortage of test kits and finite funding 
our best virology brains in IMR were at cutting edge of SARS-CoV-2

China released information on Covid-19 viral genome on 11 Jan 2020
IMR’s virology unit already produced “primers and probes” on very same day
Malaysia actually had a head start in Covid-19 testing

IMR’s reagent supplied to Makmal Kesihatan Awam Kebangsaan Sg Buloh
who diagnosed Malaysia’s first Covid-19 case on 24 January 2020 

Unfortunately MOH did not capitalize on this advantage 
and did not make the test more widely available to our rakyat

MOH did not follow closely WHO’s 3 golden rules : TEST, TEST and TEST again. 

By casting testing as wide as possible we would be able to pick up most 
then place them on 14 day quarantine to contain the spread 

Hospital Sg Buloh and KPJ Damansara first to imitate South Korea Drive-Thru testing
Trust us, Malaysia is not too late to ramp-up our Covid-19 testing


OSTB :  I say DG of Health where are the test kits? 

If our own IMR had already developed the reagents and the formulas for testing Covids 19 how come we are not producing it by the thousands? Takkan itu Pharmaniaga punya pasal lagi kot?


Just like this Whatsapp message above says  the frontline doctors and nurses in our hospitals ARE NOT BEING tested!!  


This is very, very irresponsible and also very dangerous. Firstly you are putting the lives of our doctors and nurses at unnecessary risk. Secondly if the doctors and nurses are not tested (and repeat tested again and again) how do you know that they already do not have the virus? And since they are treating patients, they can be spreading the virus INSIDE THE HOSPITAL and when they go home.

So the DG of Health saying that they have tested 5,000 people per day, going to test 16,000 per day etc does not cover the frontline doctors and nurses.

The WhatsApp message above says : 

"Even the Persons Under Investigation were not tested but were counseled, told to self-isolate for 14 days"


I have been told that in some hospitals the PUI are allowed to walk around the hospital, they are checked in normal wards (as opposed to isolation wards) and they are not placed under immediate isolation or treated as potential Covid 19s.

When even the entire country is under lockdown and Policemen are shouting at people (seven have been arrested) for 'mingling' or going outside the house how can the hospitals allow PUIs or anyone who comes in as a potential Covid 19 case to just walk around the hospital or be asked to sit in waiting rooms with the rest of the population?  

I hope the DG of Health will look into this matter and tighten up procedures in ALL our hospitals. 

Why not set up one dedicated area for Covid 19  'initial contact' cases?  Hang a banner at the entrance of the hospital saying 'Semua kes disyakki Covid 19 sila laporkan diri di XXX'.  Then place some arrows pointing the direction. Isolate them from the first contact with the hospital.

5.  The RM500 EPF withdrawals.

The situation around the world is unprecedented. This is like wartime. Movement has to be restricted. Movement of people and goods. Services have also to be restricted. Because lives are at stake. The government has to interfere how best to solve problems with the highest priority being to save human lives from death. These are not normal circumstances. 

Many have complained that  the EPF allowing contributors to withdraw RM500 per month for 12 months  is withdrawing their own funds. 

Well yes they are withdrawing their savings. 

The most important thing now is that the EPF contributors  (about 12 million of them) can withdraw RM500 per month to meet their expenses. 

Many companies are not paying salaries to their staffs during this MCO. So salaried people are not going to have enough money soon. I think this EPF scheme is very timely.

My only point is that make these RM500 monthly withdrawals easy - Online is the best, with direct deposit into the contributors' bank accounts. That way there is no need for people to go to the EPF office. If that happens the Corona Virus will only spread even more. 

6. The Loan Moratorium.

The Prime Minister's Press Statement  about the Loan Moratorium says the following :




So just now we called our bank. They answered the phone. But the fellow on the phone went like ahh...hmmm...errr.  Well its too early for the banks to know all the details but I don't think the banks are too happy.

So having been a banker let me say somethings. 

Para 3 above about 'sektor korporat' is NOT going to work. 
There are tens of thousands of corporate accounts and if each of them has to sit down individually with their bankers the process is going to take months.  

And it will only spread the Corona Virus to the banks and vice versa.

It is best that Bank Negara / Ministry of Finance specify in one blanket statement that the loan moratorium applies to all loans - corporate included.

May I suggest that ALL hire purchase financing (whether individual or corporate) for all types of vehicles be allowed in this moratorium. 

Also all mortgage lending (housing loans, shop house loans, building loans, etc) be included in this moratorium regardless of whether they are individual or corporate borrowers.

If Bank Negara / MOF leaves this discretion to the Banks it will not work. 

As I said this is a wartime situation. 
Banks are not designed to think under duress. 
They will need strict and clear guidance. 

Should the loan moratorium include principal plus interest or just principle alone? 
It must be both principle and interest.

NOW LET US BE CLEAR.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BANKS ARE FORGIVING ANY PRINCIPLE OR INTEREST. 
NO WAY. 
JUST POSTPONING THE PAYMENTS BY SIX MONTHS. 
AFTER THE SIX MONTHS THE BORROWERS MUST STILL SAMBUNG BALIK THEIR PAYMENTS, BOTH PRINCIPLE AND INTEREST.

It is only for six months. Yes the banks will take a hit but these are unbelievably, unprecedented circumstances. 

If the banks do not agree, then you are going to be stuck with billions of Ringgit of NPLs for which your costs of managing the NPLs may far exceed any "late interest" that you may incur ON THE LOST INTEREST EARNINGS FOR SIX MONTHS.

The only problem the banks may have is that the banks will suffer costs if the banks themselves had borrowed money.

Say Bank X had issued a billion Ringgit bonds at 4%, and then they used those borrowed money to lend to the bank's housing loan borrowers at 6%. So the bank must still pay their creditors (the bond holders) that 4%.  

(Because the bondholders could be foreign bond buyers in Hong Kong, Tokyo etc. who are NOT under Bank Negara's jurisdiction or control.)

To handle these types of situations may I suggest that Bank Negara and MOF sit down with the banks and help them out a little. (Meaning use taxpayers funds lah).

But whatever help that MOF may give the banks (by way of funding) must be repaid by the Banks to MOF after the six months moratorium is over.  It is taxpayers money. No free grants ok. If MOF gives them free money I will get very upset. 

Everything can be sorted out. 
Believe me folks.
Just sit down and talk calmly -  we can get a win win solution.

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