Expect intense cyclone in near future due to climate change - expert

 

Malaysia is expected to experience more intense cyclones in the near future due to the rise in temperatures, a climate change expert said.

Universiti Putra Malaysia scientist Haliza Abdul Rahman said this is based on a simulation done for 100-year return periods using 10,000 years of simulated data.

"The simulation of future maximum central pressure of cyclones...shows that this region, including Malaysia, could be facing more intense and tropical cyclone events in the near future," she said.

She added that more intense weather occurrences can be linked to climate change, where higher temperatures lead to increased wind speeds.

"As more water vapour is evaporated into the atmosphere, it becomes fuel for more powerful storms to develop. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures can lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms," she said.

Universiti Putra Malaysia scientist Haliza Abdul Rahman

Projections show that some locations in Malaysia could face a severe rise in temperatures, with populations having to endure more than 240 days a year of above 35°C temperatures in the 2050s.

"By 2090, the vast majority of Peninsular Malaysia could be facing the same problem," said the associate professor who has authored various journal articles on the matter.

Her comments follow severe flash floods in Klang Valley last week, following an exceptional amount of rainfall.

Environment and Water Minister Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man had said that based on average rainfall data, about two weeks' worth of rain fell on Kuala Lumpur within two hours on Monday - something he attributed to climate change.

Environment and Water Minister Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man

Last December, thousands of Klang Valley residents were evacuated while 55 lives were lost in debilitating floods following days of rain.

Haliza said up to August 2018, a total of 281 people lost their lives due to natural disasters, while more than three million people were affected at a cost of nearly US$2 billion (RM8.38 billion).

Floods alone accounted for 70 percent of damages incurred between 1998 to 2018, affecting 770,000 people and killing 148. The economic damage, she said, was approximately RM5.8 billion.

Increase of 0.4°C per decade in the past 40 years

According to Haliza, the Malaysian Meteorological Department data showed that Malaysia has been experiencing a "significant and constant increase in weather activity" for a generation.

This amounted to an average 0.4°C increase per decade in the past four decades.

Carbon dioxide emissions went up at a higher rate between 1990 to 2010, she said, resulting in temperature changes from 0.7 to 2.6°C and precipitation changes ranging from -30 percent to above 30 percent.

This means some locations experienced heavier than usual rainfall while other parts experienced drought or at least drier conditions.

Much of it, she said, can be attributed to a rise in greenhouse gas emissions and environmental degradation and waste generation, following a rise in population and robust economic growth.

"Therefore, the country has been experiencing increasing rainfall intensity over the years, which has led to increased incidences of floods, landslides, mudslides, tropical storms, and other weather-related events.

"It is projected that Malaysia will experience a higher frequency, duration, and magnitude of heatwaves in the future, alongside lengthened wet spells," she said.

With erratic weather in the cards, she said mitigation measures must be implemented urgently while the public must pay more attention to weather changes to prepare for possible hazards.

"We don't have a choice. The government needs to cope with this additional burden. To avoid these, governments could do a lot to prevent the huge costs of extreme events, like improved early warning systems, better regulation, better information and so on,” Haliza said. - Mkini