Ukraine Situation Critical

 Tomorrow 24 February will be the first anniversary of Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine. According to Russian President Mr Putin the operation began on 22nd February 2022. 

Here is a short video featuring Colonel Douglas MacGregor:

 

Why did Mr Putin call it a Special Military Operation or SMO and not simply a 'war'? There are multiple reasons - all of it legal and constitutional from a Russian point of view. To declare war kicks in military powers, emergency laws, war powers of the government to begin full scale mobilisation and military draft of young men to join the Army etc.  By not declaring war but declaring it a Special Military Operation, Russia avoided doing all that.

This war actually began much earlier - the exact dates are arguable 2004, 2014, 1989, 1945 etc. But many people (including here in our country) do not know that since 2014 the Ukrainians have been shelling Russian speaking areas in eastern Ukraine (the Donbas region) where, according to Colonel MacGregor above, over 14,000 Russian speaking civilians (men, women and children) have been killed. This is ethnic cleansing.

 

Two days ago Mr Putin delivered a major policy speech in Moscow.  He mentioned many points which will have a major impact on this entire Ukraine - NATO - European Union conundrum beginning now. 

 

Mr Putin has said that NATO and US soldiers (in uniform or in civilian clothes) who participate in firing weapons from any location, against Russian forces, are not safe from being fired upon.   The Russians will take them out. 

Germany and Finland have already said that they will not be involved in direct attacks against Russia. Other NATO countries have also said the same.

Mr Putin also said that Russia has temporarily suspended its role in the START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) signed with the US in 1991. This comes after the US unilaterally cancelled (a full cancellation - not a temporary suspension)  the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty signed with Russia.

 

Russia has also moved significantly larger numbers (over 350,000) combat troops into the conflict zone, mainly in the southern and northern Donbas regions. A major military thrust seems likely.

 

Todate the civilian casualties in Ukraine have been significantly small in number. None of the thousands of Iraqis killed in the carpet bombing of Iraq by the US. Or the napalm bombing of Vietnam, Cambodia and Afghanistan by the Americans.

 

However over 150,000 Ukrainian troops have lost their lives thus far - a terrible waste of human life.

 

There are indications that this Ukraine War will be concluded over the next few months. As to who will be the victor is a foregone conclusion. With over 150,000 soldiers killed and hundreds of thousands more soldiers wounded it will not be Ukraine that wins this war.

The loose cannon in the picture is Poland. When Russia wins this war Germany will be saved.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.