Ringgit hits new all-time low against Singapore dollar

 

The strength of the US dollar and weaker than expected economic data has pummeled the value of the ringgit.

PETALING JAYA: The beleaguered ringgit sank to a new all-time low of RM3.4384 against the Singapore dollar (SGD) today.

Year-to-date (ytd), the ringgit has been among the worst performing currencies, only second after the Japanese yen. The local note has fallen 4.5% against the US dollar, second after the 5.9% decline in yen.

Other regional currencies also weakened ytd against the greenback, albeit at a slower pace of between -0.3% to -3.3%.

What is the reason for the ringgit’s dismal performance this year?

Analysts that FMT Business spoke to said the strong US dollar and Singapore dollar on one hand, and weaker than expected economic data on the other have pummeled the value out of the ringgit.

Areca Capital CEO Danny Wong said the fall in the ringgit is mainly due to the strength of US dollar, which has been on an uptrend following the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes, well above most Asian countries.

“SGD seems to be more resilient as Singapore focuses more on controlling the value of its currency through the exchange rate, and not so much through interest rates,” he told FMT Business.

Furthermore, he said Malaysia’s exposure to China in terms of trade and economy is concerning, as the market is looking at a slowing China.

Singapore has also received huge inflows of funds from China and Hong Kong, Wong said.

Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng said the ‘weak ringgit is just a temporary issue.

“Our house view is the ringgit will strengthen to 4.20 against the US dollar by year-end,” he said.

One of the reasons for this is the expected end of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle, moving funds back into Malaysia, he said.

MIDF’s head of research Imran Yusof concurred with the other analysts saying “a lot of optimism and disappointment in the market this year still revolves around the US Fed and its interest rate decisions.”

In a research note this week, he said the ringgit remains undervalued.

MIDF has forecasted the local note to average RM4.26 this year against the greenback.

“We noticed recent weaker-than-expected economic data and low commodity prices led the ringgit to weaken more than other currencies.

“Among the discouraging releases include: sharper-than-expected decline in exports (and downward revisions to external trade outlook), subdued global manufacturing activities, and limited boost from China’s post-reopening recovery, he said.

“If the strong dollar narrative continues, positive growth fundamentals will have limited effect to support the ringgit outlook.”

He added that given the sharp fluctuations in ringgit movement this year, a move by the ringgit to RM4.00 against the US dollar can’t be ruled out. - FMT