Post MCA EGM : Who Will End Up Winning MCA Presidential Race in Dec ?

Many political analyst just analyze the outcome of the latest MCA EGM through just looking at Resolution 1 while neglecting Resolution 2 , 3 and 4. Resolution 1 will just provide an insight of 25% of the entire EGM . We should look in more detail to come out with a better conclusion.

MCA EGM Resolution 1 – To Censure Liow Tiong Lai

965 ( supporting )  vs 1190 ( against ) with a majority of 225 to vote against censuring Liow Tiong Lai ( 46% vs 56 % )

According to The Sun columnist Kong See Hoh , The 1,190 nays to a resolution to censure him for the party’s general election debacle included neutral and sympathy votes.

Liow own supporter Datuk Paul Kong said “It doesn’t mean by rejecting motion number one, there will be 100 percent support for Liow Tiong Lai for the president’s post. I think, for the next two months, both sides still need to work hard as what Dr Chua’s side need to do is to increase their votes by another 200,” said MCA Central Committee (CC) member Datuk Paul Kong ( reported by Malay Mail )

Senior journalist of Oriental Daily News Lin Shu Yun said while Liow garnered 1,190 votes in the just-concluded MCA extraordinary general meeting (EGM) to overthrow the first resolution of censuring him, he was reminded that a vote against the resolution does not mean a vote in support of him to be the next MCA president. Indeed, some votes against the resolution might come from central delegates who either sympathise with Liow or taking a neutral stance on the issue

What can we conclude from resolution 1 ? Sin Chew Daily also has a similar reading on Chua’s strength. Its senior journalist Guo Shu Qin said, Chua was still seizing 900 “iron votes” from his hardcore supporters.

Having said that , Dr Chua Soi Lek is still having firm and solid control over 965 MCA Central Delegates ( 46% ) while from just resolution 1 alone is hard to predict how many supporters are Liow real hardcore solid supporters. How much votes from resolution that voting against to censure Liow Tiong Lai is actually votes and supports from the neutral , sympathizer and swing votes according to cases , issues , causes , sentiments and emotions ? The answer can only be concluded only if we look forward to analyze the outcome of resolution 2 , 3 and 4.

Dr Chua ( O ) vs Liow ( 1 )

Resolution 2 – To Revoke Party Decision to return back to the Cabinet

1080 ( supporting ) vs 1090 ( against ) with majority of 10 votes

We must know the facts one of Liow camp strategy is to push the blame to Dr Chua in the issue of accepting government positions where they accuse such decision was damaging to the party performances in 13th General Election. We must also understand that those are who supporting Liow are currently the MP that do have potential to be the Minister inside the cabinet. Those are Liow Tiong Lai himself , Wee Ka Siong , Ong Ka Chuan and Wee Jeck Sheng. So it is a basic common sense that Liow camp is pushing forward to support the decision to revoke the previous party position and also at the same time to prove a point that it was Dr Chua mistake to come out with such a decision.

In the end , it was proven that it was actually the MCA Central Delegates wishes and aspirations that MCA do not be inside the cabinet . When this motion was being voted against  in resolution 2 , then it is proven that not only once but twice MCA Central Delegate had decided to vote against accepting any ministry position at national level. So this had actually gave Dr Chua a morale victory where the allegations against him where such decision was his personal decision in the past is false. On the other hand , Liow Tiong Lai and the rest of his comrades which do have the potential to be a minister end up get checkmated in resolution 2.

Resolution 2 now had indicate to us that people that vote against to censure Liow do not mean that they are supporting Liow Tiong Lai to be the MCA President. If they truly supporting Liow then why do they wish to checkmate Liow from being inside the cabinet ? On the other hand , Dr Chua do not contest in the general election and he is not the MP that do have any potential to be inside the cabinet.

Resolution 2 is where  Liow decreases by 110 votes from his 1190 in resolution while Dr Chua increases 125 votes from 965 in resolution 1 to 1090 in resolution 2. This is another example of how Dr Chua solid and unshakable supporters is at 965 while Liow supporters is movable according to situations. The question now will be how many is the exact figure of Liow true solid hardcore supporters ? We need to proceed to resolution 4 to get a better answer .

Dr Chua ( 1 ) vs Liow ( o )

Resolution 3 and Resolution 4 ( acceptance for the rest of governments positions )

Resolution 3 – 1666 ( supporting ) vs 513 ( against ) with majority of 1153

Resolution 4 – 1709 ( supporting ) vs 472 ( against ) with majority of 1237

Resolution 3 and 4 is the most important part to determine the outcome of upcoming MCA Presidential race and if we evaluate it properly then it will be even more important than resolution 1.

According to Malay Mail ,  a party insider pointed out Dr Chua still has the advantage because with the third and fourth motion being passed, he could now reward the delegates who supported him with positions in the state government, local councils and GLCs.“There are about 10,000 positions throughout the country that needs to be filled up. By this month, their names have to be submitted for vetting and the appointments are likely to come by December or January next year.

That is why Liow Tiong Lai after the EGM is angry when resolution 3 and 4 they fail to vote it out when Ketua Pemuda MCA Bahagian Selayang, Chan Wun Hoong told Utusan Malaysia that Wun Hoong turut mempersoalkan Soi Lek yang beria-ia menolak nombor dua namun tidak yang ketiga dan keempat. Liow supporters is very angry that the neutral voters do not back up Liow Tiong Lai in resolution 3 and 4 .

In short , if resolution 3 and 4 is being voted in before the presidential election is over then it will only give Dr Chua power and strength to appoint up to 10 000 positions in the state government , local councils and GLC. In a poker game , then it is actually giving Dr Chua a huge amount of poker chips to play.

So if you are Dr Chua opponents and really hate him then why do you want to vote for something that will give extra power to win to increase his odds and probability to win the race ? This is further proven when on October 7 , Save Party Committee 3.0 chief Datuk Alex Chuah Poh Kiang calling MCA delegates to vote against resolution 3 and 4 and according to him ,Dr Chua Soi Lek intends to revoke the ‘no-government-post’ resolution because he wanted to use the appointment of over 10,000 government posts at all levels as his bargaining chips.

Having said that , a true Liow Tiong Lai supporters should be evaluated from resolution 3 and 4 . The maximum amount of solid supporters that Liow can get to vote against resolution 3 and 4 will be 513 central delegates. Despite the Chief of anti Dr Chua group had call the supporters to vote against it and yet 1666 – 1709 had chosen to vote for a move to make Dr Chua stronger and more powerful for the upcoming Presidential race.

Resolution 3 and 4 – Dr Chua ( 2 ) vs Liow ( 0 )

• Conclusion
• Dr Chua ( 3 ) vs Liow ( 1 ) base on the voting for 4 motions in the latest MCA EGM .
• Dr Chua supporter is solid at 965
• Liow Tiong Lai supporter is solid at 513
• Neutral Central Delegate – 800
• To win the race Dr Chua just need 1/3 out 250 voters from the neutral voters while Liow may require to have at least 2/3 of the neutral at the minimum of 600 central delegate to win the race like how he won in resolution 1. That not yet include the strong of Dr Chua supporter that may increase through the extra power he is having in resolution 3 and 4 just few weeks before the real race.  So what is the odds now ?
• The Sun reported – EGM outcome showed that Chua is in firm control of 900 votes against Liow’s 500.
• Oriental Daily News reported that while Liow’s camp may look increasingly formidable, the foundation of Chua’s camp remains unshaken and if Chua decides to defend his post, the presidential race is going to be a neck-and-neck affair.
• This prove a point that resolution 1 is not the accurate benchmark to rule out the possibility of who will most likely end up winning in the MCA Presidential race. When it is a 3 vs 1 then how Liow Tiong Lai and his supporters so fast to tap on the morale victory ? If this is a badminton or football match then it will end up be the joke of the century .-SYA