Current president has much stronger grassroots backing, but to underestimate new PM’s sway in party a grave mistake
(The Vibes) – KUALA LUMPUR – Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s sigh of relief must have reverberated across the Umno headquarters here when the Registrar of Societies on Monday reversed its decision to invalidate the party’s polls postponement.
Just a month ago, the Bagan Datuk MP was facing arguably his toughest test as Umno president as the party became increasingly fractious, with multiple factions locking horns over whether to support Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional government.
Matters were aggravated by RoS’ decision early last month to declare the postponement of Umno’s elections – which had been due on June 30 this year – invalid.
As circumstances would have it, Muhyiddin was later forced to resign as prime minister on August 16, and Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob rose through the ranks to take over the reins.
Within a few days, RoS allowed the party polls deferment.
For now, the move appears to favour Zahid, as he has his position secured for at least the next 15 months. This is not to say he will lose his presidency if the party elections are to be held now, but the postponement allows him some breathing space as he consolidates his position and power.
Both Zahid and Ismail Sabri previously served as deputy prime minister.
It is expected that Zahid will offer to defend his seat when Umno does head to the polls next year, but Ismail Sabri’s rise to prominence means he will look to vie for the party’s top post, a prospect political observers see as likely.
According to pundits, Zahid may have, by far, the stronger grassroots support, but it will be a grave mistake if he underestimates the new prime minister, who now has the government’s machinery and resources at his pleasure.
Ismail Sabri likely to lead faction against Zahid’s
Speaking to The Vibes, Universiti Malaya’s Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said if the two do pit against each other, it could come down to who between them can better convince Umno members that he is the right man to take the party forward.
For Ismail Sabri, this can be through his policies as prime minister, while Zahid will have to show the direction in which he leads Umno.
“I see both having their own strengths. Zahid has access to the grassroots, Umno Supreme Council, bureau politics, and divisional and branch leaders. Ismail Sabri, on the other hand, has the resources of the government and its machinery to pull support to his side,” said Awang Azman.
“It will be down to what lengths they make use of these benefits,” he said, adding that the outcome of the next general election, if held earlier than the party polls, could also have a bearing on the result of the presidential race.
He said it is almost a certainty that Ismail Sabri will vie for the Umno presidency, seeing that he is prime minister now.
The academic also foresees Ismail Sabri entering the party polls with his faction of leaders gunning for other top positions, with Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein likely contesting for the deputy president’s seat.
On the postponement of the Umno polls, Awang Azman said this gives Zahid, as president, the power to name candidates for the 15th general election, which could spell bad news for Ismail Sabri, especially if members of his faction are dropped, weakening his grip on the party.
“Ismail Sabri will also have to think twice about going against his president then, fearing for his non-candidacy.”
Ismail Sabri to have edge with correct manoeuvre
National Professors’ Council senior fellow Prof Jeniri Amir said Ismail Sabri’s chances of winning the race for the presidency, if he decides to contest, depend on how he manoeuvres his machinery and resources to assist the grassroots over the next year.
The Universiti Malaysia Sarawak adjunct professor said if the Bera MP proves himself on this front, it will put him in a positive light among party members and give him the edge over his rival.
However, Jeniri believes that Ismail Sabri will likely opt out of candidacy if Zahid agrees to name and maintain him as the party’s choice of prime minister, a win-win situation for both sides.
“Personally, of course, I think he (Ismail Sabri) will challenge the president. But if Zahid can guarantee that Ismail Sabri remains Umno’s prime minister candidate, then I see the latter not contesting for the party presidency.”
Like Awang Azman, Jeniri believes the postponement of the party polls to December next year will give much-needed breathing space to Zahid, allowing him more time to act and fortify his hegemony within the party.
“The president calls all the shots, so it is certainly a welcome boost for him. But of course, this all depends on how his ongoing court cases (on corruption) turn out later. If he is found guilty, that will probably weaken his position.” – The Vibes, September 3, 2021
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