Cost of going green — higher food prices

Climate change has made it more costly to produce food, but going green is not going to make it cheaper.

PETALING JAYA: 

We are spending more on food now than we ever did, and this has, at least in part, been attributed to climate change.

For instance, droughts and floods have become more frequent, leading to reduced food supply and along with that higher prices.

Unfortunately, going green does not necessarily mean that prices will come down.

On the contrary, a new study shows that the little success we have achieved so far in battling climate change has actually made it more costly to produce food.

According to a paper by Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm, the little that has been achieved in the transition to renewable energy in Asean has led to a 31% to 59% increase in the prices of food in the region.

“The transition to low-carbon economy, while necessary and unavoidable for global development, will also create substantial impact on food bills,” the paper, titled “Climate Change and Food Prices in Southeast Asia — 2024 Update”, said.

In short, going green will raise the cost of energy and wages, as well as other inputs essential for food production and distribution, thereby raising prices.

This will be especially pronounced in Asean which is still highly dependent on fossil fuels, the paper said.

Either way we lose, but it will be one of humanity’s greatest errors if we ease up on the battle against climate change in favour of keeping food prices down.

We have to pay the price, one way or another.

The paper, written in collaboration with Food Industry Asia and Asean Food and Beverage Alliance, and released this week, offers a sobering take on the situation we are in.

It says that for every 1% increase in the average temperature, the cost of producing food rises by 1-2% across Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

In the past decade, Malaysia saw a 2.1% rise in temperature, and along with it a 2.9% increase in the prices of food.

And that is not accounting for the cost of battling climate change yet.

Whether we win or lose this battle to stop global warming, Malaysians must be prepared to dig deeper in their pockets just for three square meals a day.

For the average Malaysian, food accounts for 35% of basic living expenditure, according to data unveiled by the Department of Statistics Malaysia in November.

It is estimated that food will cost 39% more in 2050 — the year we hope to achieve zero emission — than it does now. On the other hand, average income per household is forecast to rise only 16.2% in the same period.

Poorer households, which tend to spend proportionately more of their income than average (an analysis has put the figure at around 10%) on food, will be most badly affected.

Nonetheless, it is not all doom and gloom.

Oxford Economics said foreign investment in food production in the region is a way forward.

For countries in South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, it pays for them to put their money in Asean, given the region’s growing importance as a source of imported food for them.

Asean accounted for 9.1% of global food imports in 2021, up from 6.6% two decades earlier. For the least developed countries, it rose from 14.2% to 22.9% in the same period.

But relying entirely on foreign investment is risky.

Domestic investment is equally, if not more, crucial, and investment in R&D may be the way to go.

New technology can also help to improve yield.

All we need to do is put our money where our mouth is. - FMT