Analysts: Young, fence-sitting voters may hold sway in tight Johor polls

 

Young and first-time voters are expected to emerge as a decisive force in closely contested seats in the 16th Johor state election, following a surge in the number of eligible voters under Undi18 and automatic voter registration. — NSTP/NAJMI NOR’AZAM

JOHOR BARU: Young and first-time voters are expected to emerge as a decisive force in closely contested seats in the 16th Johor state election, following a surge in the number of eligible voters under Undi18 and automatic voter registration.

Political analysts described the group as a potential kingmaker in marginal constituencies, given that many are not strongly aligned with any particular political ideology or party.

Ilham Centre research chief Associate Prof Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim said the sizeable number of first-time voters across constituencies could prove crucial in determining outcomes in closely fought races.

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"Following the implementation of Undi18 and automatic voter registration, the number of first-time voters has become significant in every constituency, and in marginal seats their voting preference could determine the eventual winner," he told Bernama here today.

Mohd Yusri said campaign strategies must now be tailored to different voter demographics, with social media serving as the primary tool for engaging urban youths, while face-to-face campaigning remains essential in winning over older rural voters.

He said fence-sitters are increasingly looking beyond identity politics and are more likely to be persuaded by realistic policy proposals, credible candidates and practical solutions to issues affecting their daily lives.

The ability to combine effective digital messaging with strong grassroots mobilisation will be a key ingredient for success in this election, he added.

Senior lecturer at Universiti Malaya's Department of Political Science, Public Administration and Development Studies Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub shared a similar view, stressing that political parties must strike a balance between digital outreach and on-the-ground campaigning.

He described voters aged between 18 and 39, numbering about 1.2 million, as the election's most influential bloc, saying they were more inclined to assess candidates based on performance, credibility and problem-solving ability than party loyalty.

Mohammad Tawfik said urban voters were generally more exposed to national narratives and social media discourse, while rural voters continued to be influenced by grassroots networks and candidates' relationships with local communities.

"Social media can create momentum, but grassroots machinery converts that momentum into actual votes. Parties that are strong online but weak on the ground often struggle to win," he said.

He also noted that Johor voters are becoming increasingly receptive to new faces, but cautioned that youth alone is insufficient to secure support without credibility and capability.

Looking ahead to polling day, Mohammad Tawfik said voter turnout, the voting behaviour of fence-sitters and parties' ability to address bread-and-butter concerns such as wages, prices, housing and employment would be the key factors shaping the outcome.

"Parties that can best convince voters they have solutions to rising living costs will have an advantage, as economic concerns may carry more weight than political slogans in this election," he said.

Election Commission statistics show that more than 1.29 million registered voters in Johor are below the age of 40, including 587,888 aged between 30 and 39, 544,657 aged 21 to 29, and 165,386 aged between 18 and 20.

The Johor state election is scheduled for July 11, with early voting on July 7. — BERNAMA