BN keeping options open beyond PN in Melaka, says analyst

 Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara says BN’s newfound openness to negotiate with any coalition ahead of the Melaka polls comes down to competing seat demands.

Ahmad Zahid Hamidi seems to be keeping everyone, even PAS president Hadi Awang, guessing — will BN stay with PN, or will it seek other partners? (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

Beyond Perikatan Nasional (PN), Barisan Nasional (BN) is likely to explore other options for political tie-ups in the hope of making greater electoral gains in future elections, an analyst says.

There are already indications that a new alliance could take shape as soon as campaigning for the Melaka polls begins. The Melaka state assembly must seek a new mandate by February next year.

For Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, the clearest sign of BN’s shift in priorities was its declaration that it was open to discussions with other political groups.

This is despite two successful electoral outings in Johor and Negeri Sembilan through its alliance with PN.

Azmi Hassan.

Immediately after its victory in Negeri Sembilan, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi declared that cooperation with PN would continue.

But shortly after, he insisted that the coalition would defend all 21 seats it won in the previous Melaka state election and was open to cooperating with other political groups.

In response, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang maintained that preliminary talks between the two sides were still “ongoing”.

Azmi said BN’s about-face could stem from competing demands over seat allocation.

Despite a limited presence in Melaka, Azmi predicted that PAS would still seek more than seven seats based on the fact that the Islamic party contested eight in the 2021 state election.

PN contested all 28 seats in 2021 but won only two, both through Bersatu, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) won the remaining five. At the time, Bersatu and PAS were still working together under PN, before their relationship later broke down.

But PN is likely to bank on the fact that it won three of Melaka’s six parliamentary seats in the last federal polls, while BN failed to win any. There are 14 state seats within those three parliamentary constituencies.

Azmi said that, for BN, a tie-up with PH in Melaka would now seem more palatable. “With BN’s backing, PH may even win more than the five it now has,” he told FMT.

BN has historically been dominant in Melaka, though it did lose the state briefly when PH won 15 of the 28 seats in the 2018 election, leaving BN with only 13. BN recaptured the state in the 2021 polls.

Ironically, both PAS and PKR, the anchors of their respective coalitions, failed to win any seats in the 2021 polls.

Mazlan Ali.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali said the prevailing political situation in Melaka could have prompted BN to consider a different strategy.

He said BN could have seen that collaborating with PN, as they did in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, might not be suitable in Melaka.

He added that PN might also want to contest more rural seats, so Umno could have decided that such a collaboration is unnecessary.

Zahid recently said that Melaka BN chairman Ab Rauf Yusoh had been given the authority to negotiate a deal with any party.

Azmi also cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the future of the BN-PN alliance. He pointed out that difficulties in reaching a seat-sharing arrangement in Melaka did not mean BN would sever ties with PN altogether.

“PN could still be a valuable electoral partner in states such as Perak and Pahang,” he said.

In the 2022 state election, PN won 26 of Perak’s 59 seats and 17 of Pahang’s 42 seats. BN won nine seats in Perak and 17 in Pahang. Despite PN’s larger seat haul, both states are currently led by PH and BN under their unity government arrangement.

Mazlan, too, does not rule out the possibility of BN and PN continuing their cooperation in Melaka. However, he said any deal would hinge on the electoral benefits each side expects.

“I think BN might work with PN in Melaka. If that formula works, it will continue in future elections, but it also depends on factors such as demographics and suitability,” he said.

“BN might work with other coalitions as well. This is the political reality of today, where cross-party collaboration will become the norm,” Mazlan added. - FMT