Umno/BN's Malacca advantage

 

The Malacca state campaign draws to a close, with the outcome projected to be a resolute victory for the incumbent Umno/BN, led by caretaker chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh. His coalition, in collaboration with its strategic partner Perikatan Nasional, is projected to pick up seats, as described below.

From passive aggression to the final push

The Malacca ground campaign has been localised, adopting passive-aggressive contention that became more confrontational in the final days. Throughout the campaign, the tone has remained civil, personalised around candidates and quietly focused on winning seats.

Comparatively, the campaign has lacked the fervour of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections. In part, this is a reflection of fatigue among parties and voters. In part, this reflects the more measured character of Malaccans. What has replaced the semangat (zeal) is confidence on the part of Umno/BN and defensiveness and resignation on the part of its challengers.

Pakatan Harapan has been on the back foot, despite having won decisively in Malacca in the recent past. The prime minister’s presence – with two visits – was noticeably less prominent.

National issues such as Najib Abdul Razak’s house arrest are not connecting to the same degree as in the 2018 and even 2022 polls. Voters have become less hopeful, more resigned.

The lack of connectivity reflects voter disenchantment with Harapan, as Bersama’s campaign in particular has impacted narratives and perceptions. The “punish” Umno/BN sentiment of the earlier elections among voters is not as evident, even as this has become Harapan’s dominant theme.

While many core supporters remain loyal, Harapan has lacked the same pull factor among voters.

Grassroots machinery

Instead, there are important campaign dynamics that have given Umno/BN its strong advantage.

Foremost is the power of machinery. Umno/BN has been the coalition that has mobilised its base and facilitated cooperation with its strategic partners. BN’s “blue” brand resonates, especially among older Malay voters. Voters over 40 make up 53 percent of the electorate.

The support for BN extends across generations, in families. Even families that voted against BN in 2018 and 2022 have started to return to the BN fold, although not necessarily among younger voters.

By comparison, contenders have come into these polls much weaker. PKR’s machinery has been weakened by internal infighting, making the party rely on candidate spending and standing in places such as Paya Rumput and Machap Jaya respectively.

Bersama’s new status has also spilt over into uneven ground campaigns, with a reliance on social media and poster branding, such as in Bemban. Many know the Bersama brand but are unfamiliar with the party candidate. In places where both are known, the party has a chance of retaining its deposit and, if the boost is significant, even splitting the vote decisively in Bemban.

Wawasan Negara, Gerakan and Bersatu have had the weakest machinery, with Wawasan and Gerakan relying on their strategic partners and Bersatu relying on the personality of its candidates.

Even the DAP, which has usually been strong on the ground, was noticeably weaker and lacklustre in its hustings, with posters and flags only coming in the last week of the campaign into its incumbent Kota Melaka seats.

Only in the last few days, after Anthony Loke’s resignation as transport minister, did the campaign gain some momentum, but the response from the ground has been noticeably cooler than in the past.

Candidate personas

The second issue is a focus on candidates and the performance of incumbents. Out of the 28 seats, only nine incumbents are not on the ballot. This means that voters are making judgments on who has been in office, and this gives an advantage to Umno/BN as it has been in government and has access to government resources.

A poorer-performing incumbent, such as DAP’s Leng Chau Yen in Bandar Hilir (where a drop in majority is expected), is coming under a greater challenge from MCA’s Jasmine Lok based on the desire to improve local services and strengthen the tourist economy. In Machap Jaya, Ginie Lim’s stature has made this seat more competitive against MCA’s incumbent Ngwe Hee Sem (Ah Sem). Paya Rumput’s Azman Abidin is using his tie to federal power to increase his political fortunes.

Contests are being shaped by the popularity of different candidates - from social media superstar Noor Helmy in Duyong to the controversial but locally strong Dr Akmal Saleh.

Candidate issues are also shaping the Bemban contest, where Bersama’s Dr Solehin Saleh, the elder brother of Akmal, has garnered attention while Wawasan’s incumbent Dr Yadzil Yaakub is not as popular and reliant on votes from BN-PN’s strategic partnership.

Bersama candidate Dr Solehin Saleh's banners in Bemban

Party alliances

The third issue is the ground effectiveness of strategic partnerships. The Harapan-Bersatu alliance has had limited traction on the ground. The 2020 betrayal is hard for many Harapan voters to overcome. Yet it is being tested.

The seats to watch for this are Pantai Kundor and Bemban. In the former, Bersatu’s candidate is strong, facing a weak incumbent, but it is unlikely that votes will congeal enough for a win for Harapan-Bersatu.

Meanwhile, the ground dynamic for BN-PN has taken root, driven by pragmatic considerations as opposed to the ethnic Malay unity narratives. Two aspects are evident.

First, BN has greater cooperation from its component parties, including strong working ties between MCA and Umno despite the earlier walkout. Umno will be crucial in shaping whether MCA candidates will win their seats.

Second, PN is still dependent on Umno/BN for victory. While PAS has core supporters across seats, especially in the Jasin area, the bulk of the votes still comes from Umno. PAS and PN, more generally, are in tougher electoral fights than BN, including Bukit Katil and Paya Rumput, with Wawasan and Gerakan in even more challenging seats.

The sentiments around this collaboration are markedly different from those in the Negeri Sembilan contest. This is driven by strategic pragmatism and, among voters, less openly salient concerns about racial unity and religious sentiment. Two factors are evident.

One is the comfort level for Malay voters, who describe supporting BN-PN as voting for family, for the familiar. Even as voters acknowledge problems in Umno and distrust of PAS, there is a sense of acceptance and connectivity that underscores support. Behind this lie concerns about ethnic representation, but this is not as front and centre as was the case in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

A second factor is that BN-PN is seen as voting for the opposition. Ironically, the stronger the attacks on Umno/BN, the more the coalition is seen as opposition and attracts those dissatisfied with the Harapan government, especially over cost-of-living issues. This is less evident among younger voters, but it is a factor shoring up BN-PN on the ground.

Looking to the results

So, what does this mean for the results? Even as the hustings come to a close, there remain a handful of seats that can be swayed by outside voters returning home, the spoiler factor and the last-minute decisions of undecided voters – largely younger voters.

Here are some projections – DAP should retain its four incumbent seats, with decreased majorities. Umno/BN should win a minimum of 19 seats, with its strategic partners picking up at least two others. The three remaining seats are being impacted by youth and returning voters, whose choice of party in close races will determine the outcome.

For now, Malacca looks poised not to have a surprise, but history has said otherwise. A seat surprise cannot be fully ruled out. Given the advantages in the campaign for Umno/BN, the overall result will not surprise, but the seat majorities are likely to do so.

What Malacca will ultimately test is not whether Umno/BN wins, but how deep its comeback runs and how the result will shape the national landscape as pressure for a general election intensifies. - Mkini

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BRIDGET WELSH is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute and a senior associate fellow at The Habibie Centre. Her writings can be found at bridgetwelsh.com. Her forthcoming book titled "Political Contestation in Modern Melaka" is expected to be published next year.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT