At GE15, a struggle over two visions of Malaysia

 

The coming general election will be something of a watershed, a struggle between two different visions of what Malaysia should be.

Voting figures for the 2018 general election and two state elections clearly reveal a deep division as to whether there should be a Malay-centric dominated or a diverse and inclusive government.

The basic premise that power would be shared between the country’s major ethnic groups has been skewed towards domination of administrative government by Malay-centric groups.

Following the fall of the Pakatan Harapan government in February 2020 to Malay-centric party configurations, hopes of reform towards a Malaysian-Malaysia outlook in the government were totally dashed.

Much of the electorate became angry and apathetic towards politics. Dr Mahathir Mohamad was blamed for what many saw as a treacherous act in resigning as prime minister, and allowing the government to fall.

The plotters behind the Sheraton Putsch were seen as traitors to the reform movement. Muhyiddin Yassin was seen as a ‘backdoor’ prime minister, lacking all legitimacy. This pushed the opposition into the wilderness.

Catharsis from Najib’s jailing?

The big question now is did the incarceration of Najib Razak open up the electoral fight for the coming general election? There is something about Najib’s physical imprisonment that seems to have changed political perceptions.

The calls of some Umno leaders urging Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to do something about Najib’s conviction has exposed selfish behaviour on the part of the “court cluster” leadership.

They have lost some authority, which has swung over to Ismail. If this is correct, the electoral dynamics of GE15 have all changed.

The opposition is now back with some contention.

After looking like losers for almost two and a half years, the jailing of Najib has symbolically exposed the nature of deep-set corruption within the Umno “court cluster.” This message will not go away as at least four more Umno politicians have court cases ahead, with Najib himself facing more.

The ball is now in the Pakatan Harapan court on how to play this card to their best advantage over the coming months.

Two visions of Malaysia

Behind the fight between Pakatan Harapan and the Malay-centric parties comprising Umno, PAS, and Bersatu, with a long string of other new parties contesting opposition space, lies a deeper battle.

This battle is the struggle over Malaysia’s future trajectory.

The Malay-centric vision of Malaysia is about maintaining the status quo: a federal government dominated by Malay based parties; economic policies based on the philosophy of Ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy), as manifested in the New Economic Policy; heavy economic intervention through GLCs; Islam integrated within all facets of government.

The eradication of corruption seems to be very low on the government priority list. This all comes with the self-serving narratives that we have all been used to hearing from the Malay-centric government.

The espoused vision of the opposition is very different. The vision is based on turning the NEP into a needs-based policy, rather than race-based policy. More transparency and accountability, as a means to lessen corruption.

There would be a move to further distance religion from government while accepting the principle that Islam is the “official” religion. The economy would be made more competitive with as yet unspecified reforms.

The counter vision of Malaysia would rest upon the principle that all Malaysians would be treated equally.

The electoral realities

The major electoral reality due to demographics is that somewhere in between is what is possible. Don’t expect guarantees to the position of Malays or the place of Islam to be challenged. However, the rest will all be up to electoral pandering during the campaign.

It’s possible that both sides of the political spectrum will fight within this middle policy ground.

Ismail is much more able than most give him credit for. The accidental prime minister, if rebuked by the “court cluster” which still controls Umno, would be able to assemble a coalition of his Cabinet members, the MCA, and MIC.

After the election, he would be able to rely upon Bersatu and PAS for numbers, should he be estranged from Umno. This way he would be mainly free of the “corruption liabilities” that his party currently bears.

That is why Ismail hasn’t been sacked from his Umno positions. For Ismail to remain in Umno, however, he would need to decapitate the “court cluster”.

Party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s power and influence should wane as his court case progresses. A conviction before the election would empower Ismail enough to deliver the coup de grace, most probably allowing him to take charge. Ismail could then campaign without the corruption liability.

The opposition cannot afford to underestimate Ismail. Under the Barisan Nasional banner he can campaign in a more moderate manner, with MCA and MIC as electoral partners.

His biggest electoral asset would be the potential three-cornered and even four-cornered electoral fights, which will dramatically weaken the opposition vote in the first-past-the-post electoral system.

However, if both Bersatu and PAS don’t cooperate with Umno, there is the possibility of a very messy election with contests of as many as five or even six candidates in a seat, diluting both sides of the vote.

In such a scenario, it will be the calibre of individual candidates, how well they are known locally, and their ability to bring out voters on election day that will make the difference.

This may create the situation where no one bloc could govern without the cooperation of the other, something like we are seeing currently.

The opposition’s best chance to win is to ensure that individual parties and independents don’t compete against each other.

Ideally, the boldest move would be for the main opposition parties to amalgamate into one big multiracial party to take the Malay-centric group head on.

There are many egos involved here. However, if the opposition believes in the principle of serving the people, and offering a real alternative to Umno, this is a no-brainer.

GE15 could be a watershed election, where the nation’s voters are making a much bigger choice than just the candidate in their constituency. They will be voting for the future trajectory of the nation. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.