Harapan should reject alliances until after GE15

If PKR and its partners within Pakatan Harapan, DAP and Amanah, retained all the seats they won in the last elections, then it will be alright to give up seats they lost to other new parties who come into the coalition such as Muda. Right?

Wrong, that would be folly and a repeat mistake. The ultimate decision should be based on whether there is a natural fit between Harapan and any other party that wants to join the coalition at this late stage when elections can be called at any time. Here’s why.

As I explained in my column titled ‘10 reasons why Haparan must spurn Muda’, there is more than enough reason not to allow Muda as a partner in the Harapan coalition.

The argument being advanced now that the seats won can be kept and the others put up for discussion is a dangerous one and spurious too. First, it’s the Malay votes that need to be turned around.

Umno/BN and PN, including Bersatu and PAS, are the government coalition partners. They are already fumbling badly ahead of the elections. It looks like Umno/BN may well go ahead alone, smug from their earlier victories in Malacca and Johor

However, it is not at all certain that the Malay votes will go to them in a four-way fight between Umno/BN, PN/Bersatu/PAS and Harapan. If the Malay votes are going to be split that way, Harapan needs to look at how it can increase its share of Malay votes.

And if we consider Malay votes, which will be the crucial swing votes in the next elections, with the non-Malay vote still largely going to Harapan, then Muda will certainly not be the party to bring that in.

Malay votes, especially in rural areas where Muda has no presence to speak of, are not going to turn to Muda which has a liberal, urban and youthful image to capture the new voters.

The point to note is this: Even if Harapan passes seats it might lose to Muda within the coalition, it does not increase Harapan’s chances of increasing the number of seats it wins - it might as well contest these seats itself instead of bringing in new, questionable partners.

In other words, there is no net benefit if it lets Muda into the coalition, even if it keeps all the seats that it won previously.

Poor show

Second, there is every chance that seats could be turned around considering the poor show that Umno/BN is putting up and the total lack of imagination of PN/Bersatu/PAS.

The tide may turn in favour of not just Harapan but the entire opposition because of the poor, corrupt, self-serving attitude of senior Umno leaders who are preoccupied with selfish reasons to obtain a pardon for the convict, Najib Abdul Razak.

The only reason for that is to save their own skins and to perpetuate a system of corruption within Umno which benefits mainly the “Umnocrats” who gain from considerably overpriced contracts, needless projects devised for money-making, and outright kickbacks.

These benefit a small coterie of politicians and their cronies who may number in the few hundred to a few thousands, with a few scores of them benefiting the most, while the plight of millions of Malays, other bumiputeras and other Malaysians are ignored. Where are the plans and actions to move the country forward?

The strength of such a turn in the tide is difficult to estimate but if it comes, it may cause the downfall of Umno/BN and PN, even for all time. If and when that happens, Harapan should be in place to take over control and not depend on mosquito parties with dubious people and backgrounds to stay in power. Mosquito parties who can change their allegiance at a drop of songkok.

Muda will do well only if the tide turns truly and firmly against the kleptocrats but then so will Harapan. Harapan must simply avoid the mistake it made with Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Bersatu before and be in a position to take control without any challenge and betrayal if that happens.

Safe seats

Thirdly, Muda will want some good, safe seats as did Bersatu in the last elections. The negotiating process is such that there are likely to be concessions made, if not by PKR, then by DAP or Amanah. DAP, for instance, inexplicably, gifted a safe seat to Muda in the Johor elections.

Where is Muda going to get 15 seats? Or even one? If they get any, it’s going to be very dangerous - even a few seats make a difference as we have seen in the last couple of years.

The argument that Harapan does not lose anything by giving up unwinnable seats, even if DAP or Amanah are the ones doing the giving up, is spurious because no one can say these seats are unwinnable. Seats considered gone were won at GE14.

Any new member being admitted to Harapan requires agreement by all parties under a consensus system. Any one of them can therefore use their veto power to stop Muda from coming in. And they should for the sake of the coalition - even the country.

There is so little time and so much to do. To waste precious time on such prattle as a result of which if there is a settlement it will only benefit Muda, is to squander any little opportunity that Harapan has to come on top in the elections.

It is more than time to make a firm stance and move into battle with the tried, tested trio of PKR, DAP and Amanah and firmly reject all alliances until after the elections based on the seats the parties have won. - Mkini

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P GUNASEGARAM, a former editor at online and print news publications, and head of equity research, says some things don’t need much consideration to know that they won’t work.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.