Anwar’s visit expected to revitalise Thai peace talks with separatists

 

The conflict in Thailand’s three southernmost provinces has left more than 7,000 dead since violence escalated in 2004. (Bernama pic)

BANGKOK: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s first official visit to Thailand on Thursday is expected to revitalise decade-long peace negotiations between Bangkok and Thai-Malay separatist rebels along the shared border.

This will be Anwar’s fourth international visit since becoming prime minister in November. His meetings with counterparts in Indonesia, Brunei and Singapore have covered economic cooperation and regional security issues, which will also be on the agenda in Thailand.

Anwar will also be looking to push the peace process in southern Thailand past the confidence-building measures that have stalled for more than a decade.

Thai counterpart Prayuth Chan-ocha will also want to be seen as having a handle on the conflict during his re-election bid in May.

Malaysia took on the role of facilitator in 2013 under Najib Razak’s government, which was invited by Thailand’s then-prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra. That process ended when Yingluck was deposed in a 2014 military coup led by Prayuth.

Conflict in Thailand’s three southernmost provinces has left more than 7,000 dead since violence escalated in 2004.

Insurgents favour car bombs and ambushes of Thai security forces, who respond with sweeps and raids.

The insurgency has roots in the 1940s when Thai-Malays in the regions of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani took up arms to seek autonomy, connected by their roots to the Sultanate of Pattani, which was conquered by Thailand.

Malaysia brokered three meetings last year between the Thai government and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), the largest group of Thai-Malay separatists in Thailand and founded by Islamic religious teachers.

The second round in April yielded guidelines for the peace dialogue and a 40-day ceasefire, essentially thwarting BRN’s annual offensive during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Anwar’s arrival in Bangkok was preceded by his new chief facilitator, Gen Zulkifli Zainal Abidin.

Zulkifli, former chief of Malaysia’s armed forces, is said to be an expert in counterinsurgency. He replaced Abdul Rahim Noor, a former national police chief, who had served as the facilitator since 2018.

Zulkifli held closed-door talks with Gen (Rtd) Wanlop Rugsanaoh, Thailand’s chief negotiator, and deputy prime minister Prawit Wongsuwan on Friday. The next round of talks will be on Feb 21-22 in Kuala Lumpur.

For Anwar and Zulkifli, the difficulty lies in both sides’ unreliability. Divisions among the Patani nationalist movement and within BRN itself prevent the group from upholding their end of ceasefires.

Much to BRN’s displeasure, the Prayuth government has held talks with Mara Patani, a group comprising the Patani United Liberation Organization (Pulo) and Patani Islamic Mujahideen Movement, known as GMIP.

Many of BRN’s negotiators live in exile in Malaysia, including delegation leader Anas Abdulrahman. “There’s a degree of disconnect between the political wing and the combatant wing,” said Don Pathan, a security analyst who has worked on Pattani and other regional conflicts.

Even as talks between Bangkok and BRN proceeded last year, scattered arson and bomb attacks as well as police ambushes continued in the south.

Younger insurgents were frustrated when BRN political leaders agreed to negotiations under the Thai constitution, which they saw as undermining their struggle for Patani’s independence.

Even before the November 2022 polls in Malaysia, Anwar met with BRN leaders and paid a “working visit” to Bangkok in September.

“There must be a peaceful and amicable resolution to the conflict. I always use this contact I have with some of the leaders here to at least have a reasonable discourse and a fair exchange of views,” Anwar told the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand during the visit.

But civil society organisations (CSOs) are wary of how successful Anwar will be. As talks remain precarious, Bangkok’s efforts to include Pulo and GMIP have raised concerns about pushing BRN to leave the negotiating table.

“The CSOs are happy about him, but in the end this is Thailand’s problem. Anwar can’t do anything unless Thailand agrees to go along (with it),” said Pathan. - FMT