Kedah: New PN stronghold or will pendulum swing again?

In the aftermath of the 15th general election (GE15) last year, Perikatan Nasional (PN) emerged victorious in Kedah, winning 14 out of 15 parliamentary seats there.

This has led to speculation that PN will be triumphant once again in the coming state elections.

However, Kedah has a history of being a swing state. Since 2008, Kedahans have voted in three different governments. They are, in order, Pakatan Rakyat, BN (2013), and Pakatan Harapan (2018).

Now, all eyes are on whether Kedahans will give PN - the incumbent government that was formed in 2020 - their mandate, or will they repeat history and change the government through the ballot box once again.

Granular GE15 data purchased from the Election Commission provides some clues on PN’s most recent support levels.

During that election, there were 14 state constituencies in Kedah where PN won more than 60 percent of the vote - the threshold that political parties often use to describe seats as “very safe”.

This means only half of the state seats in Kedah are deemed “very safe” for PN, unlike Kelantan where more than two-thirds of the seats are in this category.

In fact, PN’s overall vote share in Kedah was only 56 percent, unlike Terengganu and Kelantan where it was almost two-thirds.

In other words, among the three PN-held states, Kedah is where they are the weakest.

This might explain why Kedah has been the focal point of new government projects and ministerial visits over the past six months.

Putrajaya even decided to host its national-level Aidilfitri open house in Alor Setar in May.

According to an analysis by Kini News Lab, a 14 percent swing (change in voting preference) and a turnout pattern similar to the 2022 Johor elections should be enough for the new BN-Harapan pact to win Kedah with a simple majority.

Visit Malaysiakini again tomorrow to read our full analysis of the possible outcome of the upcoming elections in Kedah and other states based on GE15 results. - Mkini