Analysts: Neither Harapan nor BN gets 'complete victory' from Najib's conditional pardon

 

The conditional pardon granted to former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak has been described by an analyst as a “political compromise” for Pakatan Harapan and BN, with neither government coalition likely to claim a “complete victory” over the decision.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, Universiti Malaya’s Tawfik Yaakub highlighted that Najib has not received a full pardon or “immediate freedom”, as he has to serve his remaining sentence until Aug 23, 2028, with his house arrest subject to the payment of a whopping RM50 million fine.

Considering how Najib’s conviction in the SRC International case, linked to the 1MDB global financial scandal, has not been “automatically erased”, Tawfik opined that the conditional nature of the pardon provides Harapan and BN with some political space in tackling public reactions.

Umno, he said, can claim “progress” in its bid to ensure justice for its former president while Harapan can stress that Najib has neither been acquitted nor granted “unconditional freedom”.

“In the short term, I do not expect this decision by itself to break the unity government. The greater risk lies in how the parties frame the decision, and if Umno treats it as a political triumph over Harapan, or if Harapan leaders openly challenge the constitutional process, (which could cause) existing tensions within the government to deepen,” the senior lecturer added.

Earlier, Malaysiakini reported that top Harapan leaders are scheduled to meet at Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s office in Putrajaya at around 5.30pm today.

Sources said the meeting, where Harapan chairperson Anwar is expected to meet DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke and Amanah president Mohamad Sabu, will discuss the latest development in Najib’s pardon application.

Bigger hurdles for Harapan

Tawfik said that while the decision reached at this morning’s Federal Territories Pardons Board meeting can be interpreted as a “significant morale booster” for Umno in its efforts to consolidate Najib’s “loyalists” behind the party’s present leadership, Harapan could face bigger hurdles among its supporters.

In particular, Tawfik pointed to Harapan’s Sept 9 reiteration of its position that those convicted in high-profile cases of corruption and abuse of power "must serve out the full sentence set by the courts".

“(Harapan’s) reform-minded supporters may interpret ‘house arrest’ as preferential treatment for a powerful political figure, (which) could weaken Harapan’s anti-corruption narrative and provide the opposition with ammunition to question the consistency of the Madani government.

“However, Anwar and Harapan can contain the political damage by making it clear that this was a constitutional process under Article 42 of the Federal Constitution, which involves the Federal Territories Pardons Board and the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, and not a unilateral decision by the prime minister or cabinet,” he said.

As such, Tawfik (above) said Harapan should respect the constitutional outcome while maintaining that the court’s conviction against Najib remains valid and that Putrajaya will continue its institutional and anti-graft reforms.

Constitutional process

However, International Islamic University Malaysia’s Syaza Shukri pointed out that the board featured “figures identified with the Madani administration,” including Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department (Federal Territories) Hannah Yeoh and Attorney-General Dusuki Mokhtar.

Considering the duo’s presence during the board’s meeting, the political scientist said it is understandable for the public to question how such an outcome could have been reached when it risks “seriously damaging support” for Anwar’s government.

Syaza (below) disclosed that based on her understanding from sources, the impetus behind the decision “came from the highest level, alongside sustained pressure and campaign from Umno”.

“There are constitutional limits to how far the government itself can shape or prevent a decision of this nature. Nevertheless, the political consequences for Anwar and his administration are severe.

“Unless the government clearly explains the constitutional process, the respective roles of those involved and the limits of its authority, the public is likely to hold it responsible,” she said.

She theorised that while Harapan may attempt to frame the decision as an act of clemency in recognition of Najib’s previous “contributions” as prime minister rather than an exoneration of his conviction, such an approach might not be sufficient enough for the coalition’s supporters.

This, she said, is because part of Harapan’s campaign and eventual success during the 2018 general election can be attributed to its vows to bring down Najib and those deemed as kleptocrats.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Mazlan Ali, however, opted to take a more optimistic stance on the matter, positing that tensions between Harapan and Umno, which appeared close to spilling over in recent days, might be allayed following the board’s decision today.

“I believe Harapan will provide its cooperation (to facilitate the board’s decision) and, hopefully, this issue will not be debated anymore.

“Since (Najib) will have to pay an RM50 million fine before he is allowed to go on house arrest, the decision might even help in relieving any strains between Harapan and Umno,” he said. - Mkini