Trying to oust Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi by pushing for his party to conduct an election may backfire on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and his Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, according to analysts.
They believe the action by the Registrar of Societies (ROS) to invalidate the Umno leadership's decision to postpone their party polls would send more to rally behind Zahid (above) instead of against him.
"The latest action would make Umno grassroots see it as an effort to stop Umno from bringing down the PN government in the upcoming vote of confidence in Parliament.
"This would surely spark an uprising among Umno grassroots members to defend their party and any leaders who are seen to be unsupportive would get rejected," said Awang Azman Awang Pawi.
Malaysiakini contacted the Universiti Malaya academician and two other experts to get their views on the ROS letter to Umno yesterday.
The letter stated that the terms of the Umno supreme council office-bearers had ended when they made the decision to postpone their party election and so their decision was therefore invalid.
On this, Awang Azman said the motive behind the ROS order is being questioned, as it came only after Umno announced its decision to leave PN.
The analyst also warned that the action - believed to be an attempt to remove Zahid - may yield the opposite result and see the pro-Muhyiddin in Umno pushed out instead.
"The action against Umno would surely just fan the flames in Umno members, who are already unhappy with some leaders who want to continue working with PN. This narrative would not serve any good for the leaders as they would be seen as complicit."
Wish of Umno General Assembly
According to geostrategist Azmi Hassan, the scenario in Umno looks more favourable to Zahid should an election be forced upon the party.
The Bagan Datuk MP, he said, is seen by many party members as someone who is fighting for what Umno wants.
"If Umno has to hold its election soon, and Zahid wants to defend his post as party president, there would surely be a contest with candidates from the other faction.
"However, if we are to look at the scenario in Umno, there is a high chance that Zahid might come out victorious and be able to set aside his opponents.
"Because Zahid now is seen as someone who puts the party and its grassroots first, in particular the wish of the Umno General Assembly (that rejects PN)," he said.
Should Zahid win, Azmi added, it would be much easier for the president to push out other leaders who are pro-PN as they are already rejected by members.
The fallout between Umno's top leadership and Muhyiddin has led the country's largest Malay party to retract its support for PN last week.
Zahid, in announcing the decision, claimed it also means that Muhyiddin has lost his parliamentary majority and thus nullified the legitimacy of PN as a federal government.
However, Zahid is also facing a struggle within his party, with a group of leaders, including MPs, who declined to toe the party line and openly declared that they would continue to support Muhyiddin.
Among those who are seen to be pro-PN include Deputy Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is an Umno vice-president, and several other cabinet members including Federal Territories Minister Annuar Musa.
University of Tasmania's James Chin believed that Ismail would be the most likely to be placed as a candidate to go against Zahid, should Umno hold its election soon.
"Everything is linked to the power struggle. The fact that the (ROS) letter was issued now means that this is no coincidence.
"There are two moves now. One is to remove Zahid as BN chairperson and another is to depose him as Umno president.
"So the idea is, if Umno calls for voting now, then those who are pro-Muhyiddin will put their alternative candidate. And I believe it will be Ismail Sabri, nobody else," he told Malaysiakini.
However, he opined that Umno may choose to fight the ROS order in court.
Chin said that should Umno succeed to get a stay on the order, it would have "breathing space" until the next Parliament session. - Mkini
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