NO WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

 FOLKS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE NO WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. 

And the markets have already caught on to this. For example oil prices have come down and there is talk of more sluggishness in the oil market.  

'Brent Crude Falls Below US$80'

WTI is at US$77 per barrel. 

Two weeks back, amidst all the talk of war, the stock markets crashed about 11%. They have since recovered about 7% (yes I do keep track). Another 5% and its black ink again. 

AI, EVs and high tech may be overbought in the US and Europe but South East Asia, Vietnam and China are taking up the slack. This will be the trend. Jangan risau folks. Go out and buy something that will be useful in your life, which adds to your productivity. 

NINE days ago on August 6th, 2024  I posted this :

Well as I said the ayatollahs simply do not have the cojones to "shoot" more off target missiles against Israel. Out of 351 missiles they fired on April 13, 2024, only one missile managed to land on a runway at the Nevatim airbase. The rest were all shot down. Damage was minimal and patched up in a few hours. One 12 year old Muslim Bedouin girl was injured when an Iranian missile fell on their home in the desert. The child has since recovered.

The threatened "retaliation" for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh will not happen for other reasons as well. The ayatollahs are still not telling us how exactly Ismail Haniyeh was killed. Instead they have arrested their own people, they acknowledged there were "traitors" from within who were involved in the killing of Haniyeh.  To attack another country which has massive counter attack capability while they are still sorting out the "who-done-it" would be quite suicidal.  Not clever at all.

Do you know that the port of Hodeidah in Yemen has been almost completely destroyed by that one strike on Friday July 19th, 2024. The port is no more in operation since then. The port workers have all been told to stay at home (with no pay) until the port can resume operations again. And no one knows when that will be. The laid off port workers are now feeding their families using magic. 'Abra-cadabra zam-zalabim here is a plate of hummus and arab bread'. Do the Houthis care? Do the ayatollahs in Teheran care? The quick answer is no.

The fire at Hodeidah's oil terminal (above) was about 2km wide. This fire was seen all over the Middle East, including at Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal (below).

'On Kharg Island, the Iranian Oil Terminals Company operates 40 storage tanks that can store over 20 million barrels of crude oil'

The Kharg Island Terminal in the picture here is also about 2km wide. If there is an air strike or missile strike on Kharg Island, it will take the ayatollahs months to rebuild those oil storage tanks, oil pumping stations and pipelines. And 20 million barrels of crude oil will burn for a week or more. The whole world will see it.

The construction of our highly successful, post World War 2 civilisation depends on the premise of peace and economic progress. The idea of oil-tanker submarines, building 20 million barrels storage tanks deep underground etc are just too stupid. Meaning if you have 20 million barrel oil terminals, then dont shoot missiles at military superpowers that are 100 times more powerful than you.

The ayatollahs know that.  Plus the Iranian people are under absolutely no military threat from anyone at all. There is no imminent threat to Iran or to the Iranian people. Unless the ayatollahs decide to shoot their missiles first. That oil terminal can really burn for a week or more. 

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.