5 questions that will shape the Johor polls

 The Johor election is of significance in view of the country's current political landscape.

The impending Johor election isn’t just an opportunity for Barisan Nasional, in particular Umno, to reaffirm its dominance in the state where it was born. It is also a litmus test for the country’s ever-changing political landscape.

In the Johor election of March 2022, BN secured 40 seats. But the national general election in November 2022, on the other hand, ushered in a couple of significant changes.

For one, BN joined forces with Pakatan Harapan to form the federal unity coalition government, an alliance in which Umno and DAP, once bitter rivals became allies.

Perikatan Nasional became the opposition, although the coalition is somewhat unstable now in view of the tension between PAS and Bersatu.

Which is why I feel that the Johor election is of significance. The answers to five questions I have may just be a harbinger of things to come.

How will Umno do?

Will Umno retain their 33 seats or gain more? There is a good chance they will retain their seats, but they are unlikely to win more.

At the March 2022 polls, Umno gambled on the fact that holding an election at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic would deter voters from returning to cast their ballots.

Like many, my wife, son, daughter and I did not return to Skudai to vote for fear of the virus. Non-Malay voters, particularly the Chinese, stayed away, as many did in the 15th general election.

This time, there is no pandemic to discourage voters. So that may not work in Umno’s favour. However, the feud between Muhyiddin Yassin and Hamzah Zainudin, which could potentially wreck PN, would benefit Umno greatly.

Likewise, PH stands to benefit from returning voters, although Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama Malaysia may throw a spanner in the works, which could also work in Umno’s benefit.

With no real race or religious issues plaguing the state and Onn Hafiz Ghazi doing a decent job as menteri besar, the odds are in Umno’s favour.

Will PH field new faces?

I hope to see PH fielding new faces as it would complement renewed calls for reforms and prove that the coalition has groomed its next generation of leaders.

A fresh lineup will also impress on voters that PH is moving away from “old politics”. New faces, after all, come without the baggage that the first-generation Reformasi fighters now carry with them.

Failure to introduce a new lineup could spell an end for PH in Johor and perhaps even at the federal level.

The one thing that could work in PH’s favour, however, is the possibility of Umno joining forces with PAS, which would see Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s party revert to its old ways. That possibility alone may encourage voters to back PH.

How will Bersama fare?

Bersama will also be contesting in the polls and plans to do so on its own. Rafizi’s “kamikaze” policy, which he unveiled when he took over the party, could be to Bersama’s detriment, as well as that of PH.

The party will not win any seats, unless it fields candidates in two DAP strongholds. But should Bersama wrest these seats from DAP, they would no longer be regarded as “spoilers” but seen to be real contenders, albeit one without any coalition partners as yet.

Will Bersama tie up with PH?

Will Bersama and PH work together or finish off one another? Will PH give way to Bersama for a few seats and reach a gentlemen’s agreement? I think it will be a win-win for PH and Bersama, especially for Anwar Ibrahim and Rafizi, should they come together and push for reforms and progressive politics.

Rafizi is now, to a certain extent, on equal footing with Anwar and needs to be a little more mature. Magnanimity and strategy are the hallmarks of great leadership.

Look at Zahid and Khairy Jamaluddin. No one believes that they are BFFs (best friends forever) but politics demands executing a winning formula, instead of sulking.

Who will the kingmakers back?

The fifth and final question from me will be for the Johor voters. Will the kingmakers give a chance to PH? After all, abstaining from the polls will ensure Umno continues to rule.

And if by a miracle PAS wins many seats and takes over Johor, what then?

For my family and I, we are going down to ensure that the best outcome for Malaysia lies in those who do not make race and religion the pillar of their political cause.

There is only one choice in the battle between PH, PN and BN.

In my opinion, BN and by extension Umno, needs to eat humble pie and be schooled again in the politics that was championed by Tunku Abdul Rahman, the country’s first prime minister – politics that advocated inclusiveness and rejected nativist narratives.

If Johor can be a test site for a better Malaysia, we owe it to ourselves to play an important part in changing our nation in this manner.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.