Independent candidates could shake up Sabah polls, say analysts

 

Analysts said it is possible for independent candidates to achieve success, as seen in the 2020 Sabah state election. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA: 

Independent candidates could win key seats in the Sabah state election to come, potentially influencing the formation of the next government, according to political analysts.

Bilcher Bala and Lee Kuok Tiung of Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) cited the 2020 state election, where independent candidates won in Kuamut, Pitas, and Kemabong.

Bilcher Bala.

Masiung Banah (Kuamut), Ruddy Awah (Pitas), and Rubin Balang (Kemabong) later aligned themselves with the administration of chief minister Hajiji Noor.

“With growing awareness and frustration towards mainstream parties, independent candidates are increasingly being seen as a viable option,” Bilcher told FMT.

Adding that such candidates were not tied to party interests, he said many voters perceived them as a “more genuine alternative”.

Last week, Kudat MP Verdon Bahanda said that a movement of independent candidates dubbed the “Black Wave” was gearing up to take on major political parties in this year’s state election

He claimed the movement could win four to five state assembly seats, citing on-the-ground surveys which found that 80% of undecided youth voters trusted individuals more than political parties.

Verdon himself won the Kudat parliamentary seat as an independent in the 15th general election.

Lee Kuok Tiung.

Lee agreed, pointing to the last state election.

“We should never underestimate independent candidates because, in the last state election, three of them won.”

However, Bilcher said that the success of independent candidates hinged on their ability to position themselves as the true champions of local issues.

“Their victory depends on their ability to rally support and sustain momentum throughout the campaign,” he said.

Adding that voter preferences were constantly in flux, he said independent candidates could force major parties to rethink their strategies, particularly in terms of seat distribution and campaign focus.

“Parties may need to reassess areas that they once considered strongholds and strengthen their presence in constituencies where independent candidates pose a threat.

“This situation will also compel major parties to address pressing local issues more effectively to prevent voter support from shifting,” he said.

However, both Bilcher and Lee acknowledged that independent candidates could also split votes in multi-cornered contests, ultimately benefiting stronger parties.

Romzi Ationg.

“They may not necessarily become kingmakers in forming the government, but they could fragment votes in a way that unexpectedly benefits certain parties or candidates,” Lee said.

Fellow UMS analyst Romzi Ationg meanwhile said that independent candidates were likely to pose little threat in most constituencies.

He also played down the likelihood of a significant impact on seat negotiations between major parties.

“Still, certain independent candidates could win due to personal influence, financial backing, and their ability to split votes,” he said. - FMT